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Ms. Inutu Lukonga

Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) promise many benefits but, if not well designed, they could have undesired consequences, including for monetary policy. Issuing an unremunerated CBDC or a wholesale CBDC does not change the objectives of monetary policy or the operational framework for monetary policy. CBDCs can, however, induce changes in the retail, wholesale and cross border payments that have negative spillover effects on monetary policy, through their effects on money velocity, bank deposit disintermediation, volatility of bank reserves, currency substitution, and capital flows. Countries most vulnerable are those with banking systems dominated by small retail deposits and demand deposits, low levels of digital payments and weak macro fundamentals. Proposed CBDC design features, such as caps on CBDC holdings and unremunerating the CBDC can moderate disintermediation risks, but they are not sufficient. Central banks will need to ensure that unintended macroeconomic risks are comprehensively identified and mitigated.

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
,
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved changes to the Fund’s financing assurances policy. The changes apply in situations of exceptionally high uncertainty, involving exogenous shocks that are beyond the control of country authorities and the reach of their economic policies, and which generate larger than usual tail risks. The changes adopted could enable the design of a Fund Upper Credit Tranche (UCT) program in situations of exceptionally high uncertainty, in particular by modifying the Fund’s financing assurances policies in two ways. The first change allows official bilateral creditors to provide an upfront credible assurance about delivering debt relief and/or financing with the delivery of a contingent second-stage element of debt relief and/or financing once the exceptionally high uncertainty has been resolved. This would help establish that medium-term viability is being restored. The second change extends the use of a capacity-to-repay assurances from official bilateral creditors/donors from emergency financing to a UCT arrangement context. This would help establish adequate safeguards. These changes and their application to any specific country case in a situation of exceptionally high uncertainty would require the Fund to weigh whether it is prepared to accept the enterprise risks that such arrangement would entail.
Mr. Francesco Grigoli
and
Mr. Damiano Sandri

We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt on household inflation expectations. We find that people underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the revisions is proportional to the size of the information surprise. Confidence in the central bank considerably reduces the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt. We also show that people associate high public debt with stagflationary effects and that the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt is considerably higher for women and low-income individuals.

Mr. Chadi Abdallah
,
Mr. David Coady
, and
La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul

We compile a novel database on average public and private sector wages and public-private wage differentials, which we use to analyze how average public-private wage differentials vary according to gender and skill level as well as over time. We further examine the dynamic relationship between public and private wage levels and the implications for inflation. On average, public-sector workers earn around 10 percent more relative to comparable private sector workers, with the premium being higher for women, low-skilled workers, and in developing countries. The average public sector wage premium varies counter-cyclically, increasing during economic downturns, and increases prior to elections. Both private sector wages and inflation respond positively to changes in public wages, albeit with significant heterogeneity in the effects across countries reflecting differences in labor market characteristics and prevailing macroeconomic conditions.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

IMF Country Report No. 23/111

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Sweden experienced a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021–22 but is potentially heading into a recession. Global headwinds started to steadily put breaks on consumption and business confidence in the third quarter of 2022, as external demand weakened, and higher inflation and interest rates are increasing the burden on households and firms. A slightly negative GDP growth and a moderate decline in inflation are expected in 2023. The recovery will be gradual over the medium term, and inflation is expected to decelerate towards its 2 percent target, but the uncertainty surrounding this outlook is high.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Sweden recovered rapidly from the Covid1-19 crisis, and GDP reached its prepandemic level in mid-2021. In the context of a robust supervision and regulation framework, the financial sector exited the crisis with substantial capital and liquidity buffers. Going forward, growth is expected to slow amid higher energy prices, tighter financial conditions, and reduced confidence following sharply lower house prices. Given stubborn inflation, the Riksbank has been normalizing rates more aggressively than expected last year. Systemic risks to the financial system arise from (i) high exposure of banks to the commercial real estate (CRE) sector; (ii) limited liquidity in corporate bond markets; (iii) high indebtedness of households and sensitivity to higher interest rates. The banking system is nearly three times 2021 GDP and is interconnected domestically and regionally.