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Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) promise many benefits but, if not well designed, they could have undesired consequences, including for monetary policy. Issuing an unremunerated CBDC or a wholesale CBDC does not change the objectives of monetary policy or the operational framework for monetary policy. CBDCs can, however, induce changes in the retail, wholesale and cross border payments that have negative spillover effects on monetary policy, through their effects on money velocity, bank deposit disintermediation, volatility of bank reserves, currency substitution, and capital flows. Countries most vulnerable are those with banking systems dominated by small retail deposits and demand deposits, low levels of digital payments and weak macro fundamentals. Proposed CBDC design features, such as caps on CBDC holdings and unremunerating the CBDC can moderate disintermediation risks, but they are not sufficient. Central banks will need to ensure that unintended macroeconomic risks are comprehensively identified and mitigated.
We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt on household inflation expectations. We find that people underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the revisions is proportional to the size of the information surprise. Confidence in the central bank considerably reduces the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt. We also show that people associate high public debt with stagflationary effects and that the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt is considerably higher for women and low-income individuals.
We compile a novel database on average public and private sector wages and public-private wage differentials, which we use to analyze how average public-private wage differentials vary according to gender and skill level as well as over time. We further examine the dynamic relationship between public and private wage levels and the implications for inflation. On average, public-sector workers earn around 10 percent more relative to comparable private sector workers, with the premium being higher for women, low-skilled workers, and in developing countries. The average public sector wage premium varies counter-cyclically, increasing during economic downturns, and increases prior to elections. Both private sector wages and inflation respond positively to changes in public wages, albeit with significant heterogeneity in the effects across countries reflecting differences in labor market characteristics and prevailing macroeconomic conditions.