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Cover Analytical Notes
The Big Push for Transformation through Climate and Development: Recommendations of the High-Level Advisory Group on Sustainable and Inclusive Recovery and Growth
World Bank
,
International Monetary Fund
,
London School of Economics and Political Science
, and
Brookings Institution
The High-Level Advisory Group (HLAG) on Sustainable and Inclusive Recovery and Growth came together to provide policy analysis and practical proposals for actions that could help countries secure a strong recovery from the pandemic and a successful green transition. This report pulls together key findings from the deliberations and provides actionable recommendations to support a pathway to green, resilient, and inclusive development (GRID). The HLAG started by assessing the scale and nature of investment and financing challenges. It was immediately clear that investment needs require rapid and sustained scaling up: conservative estimates presented to the HLAG by Bhattacharya et al. (2022) suggest that EMDEs other than China have aggregate investment and development spending needs on the order of at least $1.3 trillion per year by 2025 and $3.5 trillion per year by 2030.
Cover IMF Research Perspectives
IMF Research Perspectives: February 2023
IMF Research Perspectives: February 2023
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Labor Market Implications for Green Investments and Carbon Pricing in Spain: Spain
Ana Lariau
and
Ms. Yu Shi
Labor Market Implications for Green Investments and Carbon Pricing in Spain green policies; input-output matrix; employment; occupations; skills ABSTRACT: We provide a tractable framework for assessing the labor market impact of policies that support the green transition of the Spanish economy, taking into account input-output linkages. We present illustrative examples that quantify changes in sectoral employment, occupations and skills stemming from two different green policies: (i) the announced green investments in the recovery plan; and (ii) an increase in carbon pricing and an expansion of the EU Emission Trading System (ETS). Our analysis shows that the labor market impact of these two policies is net positive, although the results depend on the design of the green policies, particularly on the use of the proceeds from the increase in carbon pricing. Strengthening active labor market policies, with a focus on training, and complementing them with education policies such as the expansion of vocational training, would facilitate the transition of workers from shrinking to expanding sectors.
Keywords:
green policies; input-output matrix; employment; occupations; skills; labor market impact; input-output linkage; labor market implication; carbon pricing; impact of policy; IMF staff calculation; Climate finance; Sustainable growth; Climate policy
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Labor Productivity Dynamics in Spain: A Firm-Level Perspective: Spain
Mr. Nicolas Arregui
and
Ms. Yu Shi
This paper uses firm-level data that covers over 1.2 million Spanish firms during the period of 2003-2019 to provide an updated assessment of the drivers of labor productivity in the Spanish economy, focusing on both TFP and firm investment. The empirical analysis shows significant differences in production constraints in both the capital market and the labor market, across firm size and age. This paper also includes a review of Spain’s ambitious reform commitments under the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan and concludes with recommendations for further action.
Keywords:
Productivity; financial constraint; firm size; competition; labor regulation; labor productivity dynamics; I. data coverage; firm-level data; support measure; optimization problem; Labor productivity; Total factor productivity; Labor markets; Europe; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Structural Transitions to Electric Vehicle Production: Czech Republic
Stephen Ayerst
and
Neree C.G.M. Noumon
Sustaining the impressive convergence gains allowed by the Czech automotive sector has become challenging due to its comparatively lower value added, lower investments in research and development, and lower skills in the labor market. Using a structural model of global value chains, the paper examines policies to smooth the transition to the production of electric vehicles in Czechia. The analysis explores the impacts of increasing labor productivity, boosting production capabilities, and moving up the global value chain. These policies were found to have a relatively lower impact when they shift specialization towards lower value-added stages of production.
Keywords:
Automotive industry; Czech Republic; Convergence; Electric vehicles; Global value chains; Labor productivity; Structural Policy; electric vehicle production; production capability; model illustration; Czechia economy; Policy recommendation; Employment; Skilled labor; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Spending Efficiency and Reforms: France
Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru
and
Ruud Vermeulen
To rebuild fiscal buffers after large fiscal responses to successive shocks over 2020-22, France will need to reverse the trend spending increase observed over the last three decades through structural spending reforms. This paper identifies areas where scope for savings or efficiency gains exist based on an evaluation of the level and efficiency of public spending in France relative to European peers, using benchmarking analysis and stochastic frontier analysis to derive efficiency frontiers. Reforming social protection, health, education, and civil service, and rationalizing tax expenditures should preserve or improve outcomes while generating savings that would help meet medium-term adjustment needs.
Keywords:
Public Expenditure; Efficiency; Fiscal Consolidation; Fiscal Policy; France; efficiency frontier; efficiency gain; frontier analysis; IMF staff calculation; spending gap; Tax expenditures; Aging; Europe; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
The Effects of Climate and Conflict Shocks on Household Welfare: Niger
Yoro Diallo
As livelihoods in Niger still depend to a large extent on agricultural production, shocks related to climate change and insecurity present a threat for the country’s development path and are the main sources of vulnerability for the population in rural areas. This paper uses data from the latest household living standard survey to quantify the effects and interactions of these shocks on household welfare before proposing policy recommendations to enhance the resilience of households and the economy more generally. Our results show that when rainfall decreases by one standard deviation, per capita income falls by 11 percent. Furthermore, the impact of shocks on households depends on their adaptive capacity, which includes sufficient agricultural capital and income diversification. Without concrete adaptation measures, vulnerability to climate change is expected to increase in Niger, and human capital accumulation in poor household is also expected to deteriorate and could lead to a poverty trap.
Keywords:
Climate Shocks; Conflicts; Welfare; Microeconometrics; Niger; conflict shock; household welfare; vulnerability to climate change; impact of shock; income elasticity; Climate change; Income; Consumption
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Economic Effects of Climate Change and Food Insecurity in Niger: Niger
Diogo Miguel Salgado Baptista
,
Yoro Diallo
, and
Mr. Arsene Kaho
Niger’s exposure to recurrent shocks, including climate shocks, increases its vulnerability to food insecurity. This paper aims to quantify the combined effects of climate shocks and food insecurity on key economic variables and identify the most effective mitigation policy responses using a general equilibrium model. Results indicate that rural households would be the most affected by a climate shock resulting in a decline in domestic agricultural production, which would reduce their consumption, erode their capital, and thus increase urban-rural inequalities. Simulations show that cash transfers and the reduction of internal mobility costs appear to be more effective in mitigating the impact on households of a climate shock on agricultural production.
Keywords:
Climate Change; Food Insecurity; General Equilibrium Model; Niger; Niger's exposure; mitigation policy response; cash transfer; food goods; equilibrium goods price; utility function; factory gate; consumption requirement; food consumption; consumption bundle Cit; calorie consumption kcalit; iceberg trade cost; cost imports; Consumption; Food security; Income; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Macroeconomic Gains from Closing Gender Educational Gaps in Niger: Niger
Rasmané Ouedraogo
and
Diego B. P. Gomes
This paper explores the state of gender equality and education attainment of girls in Niger. It also estimates the macroeconomic gains from reducing gaps in education between boys and girls using a micro-founded general equilibrium model. The analysis shows that Niger has made some progress toward higher educational attainment for girls, but the country still lags far behind other sub-Saharan African countries. The results from the general equilibrium model suggest that closing the gender gaps in education would boost female labor participation, increase income earned by women and improve fiscal outcomes. More importantly, closing the gender gap in years of schooling in each income percentile would boost long-term GDP by 11 percent. These significant economic gains from investing in girls’ education will contribute to the achievements of the strategic goals defined under the Programme de Développement Economique et Social (PDES) 2022-26.
Keywords:
Gender; Education; Gains; increase income; income percentile; macroeconomic gain; Sahel region; income spectrum; Gender inequality; Women; Education spending; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Financial Inclusion in Niger: Challenges and Opportunities: Niger
Yoro Diallo
,
Mr. Arsene Kaho
, and
Can Sever
Financial inclusion can increase economic growth and productivity and reduce poverty and inequality by helping people and firms—particularly SMEs—to save and invest, smooth consumption, and better manage financial risks. This paper highlights Niger’s lag compared to other WAEMU countries in terms of access to and use of formal financial services, including for women and youth, and underscores key demand and supply side challenges to financial inclusion as well as structural impediments. It lays out key priorities for Niger to harness the potential of greater financial inclusion to support the country’s development agenda, including efforts to tackle low financial literacy, promote digitization, and address informality.
Keywords:
Financial Inclusion; Financial Institutions; Niger; Niger's lag; development agenda; Niger banking sector; MFI sector NPL ratio; BCEAO MFI; IMF staff calculation; Digital financial services; Digital currencies; Global