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Cover IMF Working Papers
Far More Than a Shot in the Arm: Vaccines and Consumer Spending
Mr. Serhan Cevik
The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and government interventions have reshaped economic activity with abrupt changes in household consumption behavior across the world. This paper provides an empirical investigation of how the COVID-19 vaccine rollout has affected consumer spending at daily frequency using debit and credit card transactions in three European countries. Empirical results show that COVID-19 vaccinations, along with other policy interventions, have mitigated the severe negative impact of the pandemic and boosted consumer spending. First, the vaccination deployment has a statistically and economically significant positive effect on private consumption. Second, other policy responses to the pandemic—designed to contain the spread of the virus and provide support to businesses and households—have significant effects on the amount and composition of debit and credit card transactions. Third, the impact of COVID-19 vaccinations in terms of stimulating consumer spending appears to be more pronounced on contact-intensive sectors such as services than goods.
Keywords:
Pandemic; COVID-19; vaccination; household behavior; consumer spending; card transactions; Baltics; Estonia; Latvia; Lithuania; vaccine rollout; credit card transactions; vaccination deployment; government intervention; vaccination effort; Consumer credit; Household consumption
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation and Monetary Policy in a Low-Income and Fragile State: The Case of Guinea
Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow
,
Nelnan Fidèle Koumtingué
, and
Mr. Sebastian Weber
Inflation in low-income countries is often high and volatile, driven by external shocks. In addition, inflation in fragile states is affected by highly volatile domestic factors that complicate monetary policy’s ability to deliver price stability. We estimate the drivers of inflation in Guinea since the early 2000s, a period in which the country suffered major shocks from pandemics, commodity price movements, and multiple military coups, and during which inflation averaged 12 percent. Results confirm that global commodity and transport prices account for a large share of the variation in inflation. The contribution of monetary policy shocks to inflation is moderate, reflecting its broadly neutral stance throughout most of the last two decades. However, monetary policy has occasionally made larger contributions to inflation, and recently helped contain price pressures from high commodity prices. The effectiveness of monetary policy reflects a strong relationship between monetary aggregates and the exchange rate.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Inflation; Low-income Countries; Fragile States; inflation dynamics; shocks to inflation; monetary policy shock; commodity price movement; inflation development; Monetary base; Exchange rates; Exchange rate arrangements; Nominal effective exchange rate; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unleashing India’s Growth Potential
Shinya Kotera
and
Ms. TengTeng Xu
This paper analyzes the drivers of India’s growth in the past five decades and considers baseline and upside scenarios of India’s medium-term potential growth. Using a production function approach, the paper assesses the impact of the pandemic on the key factors of production and therefore its impact on medium-term growth. Successful implementation of wide-ranging structural reforms could help support productivity and potential growth over the medium term.
Keywords:
India; Potential Growth; Labor Markets; Capital; Productivity; Pandemic; Production Function Approach; Structural Reforms.; upside scenario; TengTeng xu; impact of the pandemic; growth rate; Total factor productivity; COVID-19; Human capital; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2023 Handbook of IMF Facilities for Low-Income Countries
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This Handbook provides guidance to staff on the IMF’s concessional financial facilities and non-financial instruments for low-income countries (LICs), defined here as all countries eligible to obtain concessional financing from the Fund. It updates the previous version of the Handbook that was published in December 2017 (IMF, 2017e) by incorporating modifications resulting from the 2018–19 Review of Facilities for Low-Income Countries and Review of the Financing of the Fund’s Concessional Assistance and Debt Relief to Low-Income Member Countries (IMF, 2019a, b), approved by the Board in May 2019; the reforms introduced in 2021 on the basis of the Board paper Fund Concessional Financial Support for Low-Income Countries—Responding to the Pandemic (IMF, 2021a), approved in July 2021; and a number of other recent Board papers. Designed as a comprehensive reference tool for program work on LICs, the Handbook also refers, in summary form, to a range of relevant policies that apply more generally to IMF members. As with all guidance notes, the relevant IMF Executive Board decisions including the terms of the various LIC Trust Instruments that have been adopted by the Board, remain the primary legal authority on the matters covered in the Handbook.
Keywords:
Low income countries; IMF Concessional Lending Facilities; Extended Credit Facility; Policy Support Instrument; Rapid Credit Facility; Standby Credit Facility; Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust; SCF arrangement; ECF arrangement; financing request; IMF facility; financial support; Balance of payments need; Debt sustainability; Poverty reduction strategy; Arrears; Debt sustainability analysis; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Technical Assistance Report-Medium-Term Macro-Fiscal Forecasting
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This TA report summarizes the context, mission findings, and way forward for CARTAC’s provision of TA support to Suriname’s Economic Affairs Department (within the Ministry of Finance and Planning). A new medium-term macro-fiscal forecasting framework (MTFF) will be developed via several TA missions, and will focus on linking high-level revenue and expenditure projections to projections of macroeconomic determinants. In addition, a clear and transparent method of entering the effect of policy changes on these projections, and the contribution of any ‘one-off’ factors to projected revenues or expenditures, will be a key feature of the tool. Finally, training, through hands-on exercises using Surinamese data, will play an important role in supporting the development and ultimate adoption of the MTFF.
Keywords:
EAD staff; staff time; Suriname debt management office; EAD forecast; MFP staff; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Revenue forecasting; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sweden: Financial Sector Assessment Program–Technical Note on Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Since the last financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) in 2016, the authorities have adopted a number of regulatory reforms to enhance the resilience of the Swedish financial system. The key changes to the legal framework for banks and banking supervision in Sweden have mainly been a direct result of legal initiatives at European Union (EU) level.
Keywords:
Sweden FSAP; financing business act; Risk mitigation program; due diligence; FI's regulation; securities commission; Tier 1; Credit risk; Credit; Market risk; Operational risk; Stress testing; Baltics; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Union of the Comoros: Second Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Comoros is a small, fragile island state (population: 850,000) with low and shock-prone growth. A Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) has been in place since July 2021. Policies aimed to: (i) contain and recover from the COVID-19 pandemic; and (ii) start implementing reforms to overcome fragility, boost inclusive growth, and limit risks. The first review assessed implementation through end-September 2021 as satisfactory and rescheduled three structural benchmarks that needed more time from end-December 2021 to end-February 2022. This second (and final) review assessed implementation of end-December 2021 and end-February 2022 quantitative targets and structural benchmarks, as well as overall policy implementation under the SMP.
Keywords:
SMP staff report; SMP implementation; Comoros' Staff-Monitored Program; debt sustainability risk; reform program; Debt sustainability analysis; Arrears; Global
Cover Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund
Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund
Forty-Second Issue Supplement
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

Abstract

This volume documents decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund, as well as documents relating to the United Nations and other international organizations.

Cover Selected Issues Papers
Kosovo’s Electricity Sector Challenges and Opportunities: Republic of Kosovo
Gabriel Di Bella
and
Selim Thaci
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, electricity prices in Europe have increased and become more volatile. This coupled with unreliable domestic electricity supply has led to significant stress for Kosovo’s energy sector and budget. This paper presents several scenarios characterized by alternative assumptions for European electricity prices and domestic electricity production in 2023 in order to gauge their potential impact on the budget and the economy. It also discusses the medium-term benefits, including in terms of increased energy security and reduced emissions and pollution, of diversifying domestic electricity generation away from lignite.
Keywords:
Kosovo; Electricity; Energy; Energy Resources; Energy Utilities; Infrastructure; Pollution; Energy Security; electricity price; sector challenge; E. medium term; medium-term benefit; generation matrix; Natural gas sector; Tariffs; Energy pricing; Imports; Europe
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Tax Revenue Growth and Formalization: Republic of Kosovo
Amanda Edwards
,
Ezgi O. Ozturk
, and
Selim Thaci
Among western Balkan countries, Kosovo had the largest growth in tax revenue in percent of GDP over 2021-22. While part of this strong performance could be explained by increased activity, surging inflation, and buoyance, a sizable part of it is related to increased formalization. This paper analyzes the extent to which tax revenue increases may have grown due to gains in formalization, both of workers and businesses, by applying a simple accounting framework to disentangle the sources of tax collection increases.
Keywords:
tax revenue; formalization; informal economy; value-added taxes; corporate income taxes; personal income taxes; tax revenue growth; tax revenue increase; research assistance; VAT revenue; title page; IMF staff calculation; Tax administration core functions; Personal income tax; Effective tax rate; Value-added tax