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Our Cameroonian authorities appreciate the engagement with the Fund and thank Management and staff for the quality policy dialogue under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangements. Policy discussions for the third review focused notably on the need to maintain the program’s fiscal consolidation trajectory, create fiscal space for productive and social expenditures, strengthen the financial sector, and accelerate structural reforms to foster private sector-led inclusive growth. The forthcoming visit of the Deputy Managing Director in Yaoundé in March 2023 will represent a good opportunity to deepen these policy discussions in a context marked by the difficult health, economic, and security conditions, and the conflict in Ukraine.
As the evaluation notes, the Fund’s rapid response was not without costs and risks. The decision to provide extraordinary access, including through emergency financing, in the face of this unprecedented crisis has inevitably raised pressures on the Fund’s own, and its members’, balance sheets. Moreover, according to the report, some stakeholders did not feel adequately consulted in the initial weeks of the pandemic, staff experienced enormous work pressures, and in at least a few instances, national authorities did not perceive that the way policy guidance on 2 access was applied was entirely evenhanded. I am confident we can learn from the experience and do even better in the future; and I believe the IEO’s high-level recommendations will help us to do so.
At the request of the authorities, an IMF team undertook a technical assistance mission to Botswana, from August 17–26, 2022, to support efforts to develop the local currency government bond market. The mission assessed the current stage of the sovereign debt market and formulated policy recommendations for each of the six building blocks included in the Guidance Note for Developing Local Currency Bond Markets.
This paper provides an analysis of the use and effects of capital controls in 27 AEs and EMDEs which experienced at least one financial crisis between 1995 and 2017. Countries often turn to using capital controls in crisis: some ease inflow controls while others tighten controls on outflows. A key finding is that countries with pervasive controls before the start of the crisis are shielded compared to countries with more open capital accounts, which see a significant decline in capital flows during crises. In contrast, the effectiveness of capital controls introduced during crises appears to be weak and difficult to identify. There is also some evidence that the introduction of outflow controls during crises is negatively associated with sovereign debt ratings, but that investors may actually forgive with time.
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved changes to the Fund’s financing assurances policy. The changes apply in situations of exceptionally high uncertainty, involving exogenous shocks that are beyond the control of country authorities and the reach of their economic policies, and which generate larger than usual tail risks. The changes adopted could enable the design of a Fund Upper Credit Tranche (UCT) program in situations of exceptionally high uncertainty, in particular by modifying the Fund’s financing assurances policies in two ways. The first change allows official bilateral creditors to provide an upfront credible assurance about delivering debt relief and/or financing with the delivery of a contingent second-stage element of debt relief and/or financing once the exceptionally high uncertainty has been resolved. This would help establish that medium-term viability is being restored. The second change extends the use of a capacity-to-repay assurances from official bilateral creditors/donors from emergency financing to a UCT arrangement context. This would help establish adequate safeguards. These changes and their application to any specific country case in a situation of exceptionally high uncertainty would require the Fund to weigh whether it is prepared to accept the enterprise risks that such arrangement would entail.
During the March 2020 market turmoil, euro area money-market funds (MMFs) experienced significant outflows, reaching almost 8% of assets under management. This paper investigates whether the volatility in MMF flows was driven by investors’ liquidity needs related to derivative margin payments. We combine three highly granular unique data sources (EMIR data for derivatives, SHSS data for investor holdings of MMFs and Refinitiv Lipper data for daily MMF flows) to construct a daily fund-level panel dataset spanning from February to April 2020. We estimate the effects of variation margin paid and received by the largest holders of EURdenominated MMFs on flows of these MMFs. The main findings suggest that variation margin payments faced by some investors holding MMFs were an important driver of the flows of EUR-denominated MMFs domiciled in euro area.
Surges in public debt in many countries since the COVID-19 pandemic have rekindled interest in fiscal consolidations, which often entail difficult policy choices in the face of economic and political constraints. This paper presents findings from a survey of the literature on fiscal consolidations, focusing on the pre-existing conditions, impact and design aspects of past consolidation episodes. These findings provide insight into factors that influence the chance of successful consolidations, their growth and distributional impact, the pace, phasing, duration and policy mix of reforms to mitigate the impact, and the role of fiscal institutions and capacity development in successful consolidations.
At the request of the authorities, an IMF team undertook a technical assistance mission to Botswana, from August 17–26, 2022, to support efforts to develop the local currency government bond market. The mission assessed the current stage of the sovereign debt market and formulated policy recommendations for each of the six building blocks included in the Guidance Note for Developing Local Currency Bond Markets.