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Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Lu Han, Miss Marie S Kim, and Ms. Nicole Laframboise
This paper studies the role of airlift supply on the tourism sector in the Caribbean. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S.-Caribbean airlift supply factors such as the number of flights, seats, airlines, and departure cities on U.S. tourist arrivals. The possible endogeneity problem between airlift supply and tourist arrivals is addressed by using a structural panel VAR and individual country VARs. Among the four airlift supply measures, increasing the number of flights is found to be the most effective way to boost tourist arrivals on a sustained basis. As a case study, the possible crowding effect of increasing the number of U.S. flights to Cuba is investigated and, based on past observations, we find no significant impact on flights to other Caribbean countries. The impact of natural disasters on airlift supply and tourist arrivals is also quantified.
Mr. Ernesto Hernández-Catá
The collapse of the Cuban economy following the cessation of Soviet assistance gave way to a strong recovery in 1994-96. There are three possible explanations for this recovery: (i) that it never took place; (ii) that it reflected a surge in productivity resulting from stabilization and liberalization in 1993-94; or (iii) that it resulted from a favorable aggregate demand shock. The second explanation-the most persuasive-suggests that a strong and durable expansion will probably not be achieved on the basis of present policies, but that the benefits of a full liberalization of the economy are likely to be considerable.
Rafael Romeu
An opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean's tourism industry. This study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling for natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors, the results show that a hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals. Neighboring destinations would lose the implicit protection the current restriction affords them, and Cuba would gain market share, but this would be partially offset in the short-run by the redistribution of non-U.S. tourists currently in Cuba. The results also suggest that Caribbean countries have in general not lowered their dependency on U.S. tourists, leaving them vulnerable to this potential change.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

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Mahbub ul Haq

This paper highlights that despite severe limitations of resources, developing countries have made substantial progress during the past three decades in sending more children to school and in generally improving their education systems. Enrollment of children in schools at all levels has expanded at unprecedented rates. There has been a significant decline in the proportion of adults who are illiterate—from 44 percent in 1950 to 32 percent in 1975. Public expenditures for education have increased steadily in developing countries to reach roughly the same share of national product as in industrialized countries.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The relationship of an international organization to non-members raises a number of issues, not only in connection with the growing law of international organizations but also in connection with the older law of treaties. One of the leading issues is the legal effect of a treaty on states that are not parties to it (“third” states, “strangers”). Writing in 1960 as the Special Rapporteur of the International Law Commission, Sir Gerald Fitzmaurice, now Judge Fitzmaurice of the International Court of Justice, noted that the literature on this “amorphous and rather protean topic” was sparse and that both theory and doctrine were unsatisfactory.1