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Global Value Chains and External Adjustment: Do Exchange Rates Still Matter?

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Global Value Chains and External Adjustment: Do Exchange Rates Still Matter? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/300

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gustavo Adler , Sergii Meleshchuk , and Carolina Osorio Buitron

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 December 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513521985.001

ISBN: 9781513521985

Keywords: Exchange rate shocks, Exchange rate policy, Exchange rate pass-through, Flexible exchange rates, Exchange rate adjustments, inflation targeting, foreign exchange intervention, exchange rate, WP, intermediate input

The paper explores how international integration through global value chains shapes the working of exchange rates to induce external adjustment both in the short and medium run. The analysis indicates that greater...

Immigration and Wage Dynamics in Germany

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Immigration and Wage Dynamics in Germany »

Volume/Issue: 2019/301

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sabine Klinger , Anvar Musayev , Jean-Marc Natal , and Enzo Weber

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 December 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513521145.001

ISBN: 9781513521145

Keywords: Labor market reforms, Labor market characteristics, Labor costs, Labor supply, Labor productivity, wage growth, Phillips curve, immigration, micro-data, panel regression

German wages have not increased very rapidly in the last decade despite strong employment growth and a 5 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate. Our analysis shows that a large part of the decline in une...

Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in Advanced Economies

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Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in Advanced Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2019/297

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ichiro Fukunaga , Takuji Komatsuzaki , and Hideaki Matsuoka

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 December 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513521596.001

ISBN: 9781513521596

Keywords: Real interest rates, Negative interest rates, Economic growth, Financial crises, Economic forecasting, Inflation, public debt, financial repression, advanced economies, WP

This paper quantitatively assesses the effects of inflation shocks on the public debt-to-GDP ratio in 19 advanced economies using simulation and estimation approaches. The simulations based on the debt dynamics equ...

Innovate to Lead or Innovate to Prevail: When do Monopolistic Rents Induce Growth?

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Innovate to Lead or Innovate to Prevail: When do Monopolistic Rents Induce Growth? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/294

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Roberto Piazza , and Yu Zheng

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 December 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513512518.001

ISBN: 9781513512518

Keywords: Monopoly rights, Index numbers, Economic sectors, General equilibrium models, Consumption, Innovation, growth, creative destruction, R&D cost, WP

This paper extends the Schumpeterian model of creative destruction by allowing followers' cost of innovation to increase in their technological distance from the leader. This assumption is motivated by the observat...

Political Costs of Tax-Based Consolidations

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Political Costs of Tax-Based Consolidations »

Volume/Issue: 2019/298

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Chuling Chen , Era Dabla-Norris , Jay Rappaport , and Aleksandra Zdzienicka

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 December 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513521534.001

ISBN: 9781513521534

Keywords: Base rates, Budget deficits, Business cycles, Capital, Capital income, Capital stocks, Corporate income taxes, Debt, Debt reduction, Debt sustainability

This paper studies the impact of tax-based consolidations on reelection outcomes. Using a granular database of tax-based consolidations for a panel of 10 OECD countries over the last 40 years, we find that tax refo...

Post-Crisis Changes in Global Bank Business Models: A New Taxonomy

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Post-Crisis Changes in Global Bank Business Models: A New Taxonomy »

Volume/Issue: 2019/295

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): John Caparusso , Yingyuan Chen , Peter Dattels , Rohit Goel , and Paul Hiebert

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 December 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513522883.001

ISBN: 9781513522883

Keywords: Financial crises, Central banks, Financial services, Banking systems, Financial infrastructure, International banks, Business model, Bank performance, Global Financial Stability, Regulation

The Global Financial Crisis unleashed changes in the operating and regulatory environments for large international banks. This paper proposes a novel taxonomy to identify and track business model evolution for the...

Risk Management Maturity Assessment at Central Banks

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Risk Management Maturity Assessment at Central Banks »

Volume/Issue: 2019/303

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nicolas Denewet , Antonio Manzanera , Sanjeev Matai , and Elie Chamoun

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 December 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513521992.001

ISBN: 9781513521992

Keywords: Central banks, Risk management, Central bank operations, Central bank governance, External audit mechanism, maturity assessments, WP, risk management practice, risk management function, maturity level

Effective risk management at central banks is best enabled by a sound framework embedded throughout the organization that supports the design and execution of risk management activities. To evaluate the risk manage...

Sovereign Asset and Liability Management in Emerging Market Countries: The Case of Uruguay

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Sovereign Asset and Liability Management in Emerging Market Countries: The Case of Uruguay »

Volume/Issue: 2019/290

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): André Amante , Phillip Anderson , Thordur Jonasson , Herman Kamil , and Michael Papaioannou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 December 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511696.001

ISBN: 9781513511696

Keywords: Financial crises, Financial management, Financial markets, Financial statements, Financial institutions, Public Debt Management, Financial Risk, Foreign Exchange Hedging, Government Securities Markets, WP

This paper provides an overview of the strategic and operational issues as well as institutional challenges, related to the implementation of the Sovereign Asset and Liability Management (SALM) approach. Applicati...

The Role of Board Oversight in Central Bank Governance: Key Legal Design Issues

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The Role of Board Oversight in Central Bank Governance: Key Legal Design Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2019/293

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Wouter Bossu , and Arthur D. P. Rossi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 December 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513524054.001

ISBN: 9781513524054

Keywords: Central bank capital, Reserve requirements, Central bank legislation, Central banks, Central bank governance, Board Oversight, Legal Design, WP, oversight board, bank law

This paper discusses key legal issues in the design of Board Oversight in central banks. Central banks are complex and sophisticated organizations that are challenging to manage. While most economic literature focu...

U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to GCC Countries: Do Oil Prices Matter?

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U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to GCC Countries: Do Oil Prices Matter? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/304

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olumuyiwa Adedeji , Erik Roos , Sohaib Shahid , and Ling Zhu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 December 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513519357.001

ISBN: 9781513519357

Keywords: Bank rates, Market interest rates, Real interest rates, Discount rates, Interest rates on loans, Growth, Gulf Corporation Council, Spillovers, U.S. Monetary Policy, WP

This paper provides empirical evidence that the size of the spillovers from U.S. monetary policy to non-oil GDP growth in the GCC countries depends on the level of oil prices. The potential channels through which o...