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Deconstructing the International Business Cycle
			: Why does a U.S. sneeze give the rest of the world a cold?

Deconstructing the International Business Cycle : Why does a U.S. sneeze give the rest of the world a cold? »

Volume/Issue: 2010/239

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455209392.001

ISBN: 9781455209392

Keywords: international business cycles, identification, structural VAR, business cycle, real gdp, correlation, standard errors, statistics, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, International Factor Movements and International Business: General

The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. We estimate spillover effects across major advanced c...

Does Productivity Growth Lead to Appreciation of the Real Exchange Rate?

Does Productivity Growth Lead to Appreciation of the Real Exchange Rate? »

Volume/Issue: 2003/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jaewoo Lee , and Man-Keung Tang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451857252.001

ISBN: 9781451857252

Keywords: Real exchange rate, nontradable services, tfp, exchange rate, exchange rates, total factor productivity, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

We revisit the time-honored link between productivity and the real exchange rate. Consistent with the traditional view, we find that higher labor productivity tends to lead to appreciation of the real exchange rate...

Factor Endowment, Structural Coherence, and Economic Growth

Factor Endowment, Structural Coherence, and Economic Growth »

Volume/Issue: 2012/165

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natasha Che

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475505139.001

ISBN: 9781475505139

Keywords: Structural Coherence, Structural Change, Factor Endowment, capital intensity, growth rate, tfp, capital stock, Consumption, Saving, Production

This paper studies the linkage between structural coherence and economic growth. Structural coherence is defined as the degree that a country's industrial structure optimally reflects its factor endowment fundament...

Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy

Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2012/286

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anja Baum , Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro , and Anke Weber

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 December 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475565829.001

ISBN: 9781475565829

Keywords: business cycle, nonlinear analysis, fiscal multipliers, fiscal adjustment, government spending, fiscal consolidation, fiscal multipliers., Quantitative Policy Modeling,

Only a few empirical studies have analyzed the relationship between fiscal multipliers and the underlying state of the economy. This paper investigates this link on a country-by-country basis for the G7 economies (...

Fiscal Policy and Economic Development

Fiscal Policy and Economic Development »

Volume/Issue: 2008/155

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alex Mourmouras , and Peter Rangazas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870138.001

ISBN: 9781451870138

Keywords: structural transformation, size of government, infrastructures, calibrated dynamic general equilibrium models, tax rates, growth rates, economic growth, tax base,

This paper offers possible explanations for three generally observed facts about fiscal policy and development: (F1) The relative size of government increases as an economy develops, (F2) The rise in government and...

Global Business Cycles
			: Convergence or Decoupling?

Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling? »

Volume/Issue: 2008/143

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , Eswar Prasad , and Christopher Otrok

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870015.001

ISBN: 9781451870015

Keywords: macroeconomic fluctuations, convergence, decoupling, business cycle, globalization period, business cycle fluctuations,

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets,...

Global Imbalances
			: The Role of Non-Tradabletotal Factor Productivity in Advanced Economies

Global Imbalances : The Role of Non-Tradabletotal Factor Productivity in Advanced Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2009/63

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alessandro Rebucci , Nicoletta Batini , Pietro Cova , and Massimiliano Pisani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451872101.001

ISBN: 9781451872101

Keywords: trade deficit, non-tradable sector, GEM, tfp, tradable goods, elasticity of substitution, intermediate goods, terms of trade,

This paper investigates the role played by total factor productivity (TFP) in the tradable and nontradable sectors of the United States, the euro area, and Japan in the emergence and evolution of today's global tra...

Globalization and Growth in the Twentieth Century

Globalization and Growth in the Twentieth Century »

Volume/Issue: 2000/44

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): N. Crafts

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451846409.001

ISBN: 9781451846409

Keywords: Growth, convergence, tfp, growth rates, real gdp, growth accounting

This paper reviews the experience of economic growth during the twentieth century with a view to highlighting implications for both growth economists and policy-makers. The unprecedented divergence in income levels...

Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring

Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring »

Volume/Issue: 2011/25

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. Boragan Aruoba , Marco Terrones , Ayhan Kose , and Francis Diebold

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455216727.001

ISBN: 9781455216727

Keywords: Expansion, Contraction, Recession, Turning Point, Dynamic factor model, Nowcasting, Real-time analysis, business cycle, business cycles, correlations

We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observati...

How Different Is the Cyclical Behavior of Home Production Across Countries?

How Different Is the Cyclical Behavior of Home Production Across Countries? »

Volume/Issue: 2006/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ayhan Kose , and William Blankenau

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451863062.001

ISBN: 9781451863062

Keywords: home (non-market), general equilibrium, business cycle, correlations, correlation, time series, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General, Time Allocation and Labor Supply,

This paper studies stylized business cycle properties of household production in four industrialized countries (Canada, the United States, Germany, and Japan). We employ a dynamic small open economy business cycle...