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Cover IMF Working Papers
Capital Controls in Times of Crisis – Do They Work?
Apoorv Bhargava
,
Romain Bouis
,
Annamaria Kokenyne
,
Manuel Perez-Archila
,
Umang Rawat
, and
Ms. Ratna Sahay
This paper provides an analysis of the use and effects of capital controls in 27 AEs and EMDEs which experienced at least one financial crisis between 1995 and 2017. Countries often turn to using capital controls in crisis: some ease inflow controls while others tighten controls on outflows. A key finding is that countries with pervasive controls before the start of the crisis are shielded compared to countries with more open capital accounts, which see a significant decline in capital flows during crises. In contrast, the effectiveness of capital controls introduced during crises appears to be weak and difficult to identify. There is also some evidence that the introduction of outflow controls during crises is negatively associated with sovereign debt ratings, but that investors may actually forgive with time.
Keywords:
Capital controls; capital outflows; financial crises; inflow control; outflow controls Introduced; outflow control; controls on outflow; tightening control; Capital account; Capital flows; Caribbean; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Changes to the Fund’s Financing Assurances Policy in the Context Of Fund Upper Credit Tranche (UCT) Financing Under Exceptionally High Uncertainty
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
,
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved changes to the Fund’s financing assurances policy. The changes apply in situations of exceptionally high uncertainty, involving exogenous shocks that are beyond the control of country authorities and the reach of their economic policies, and which generate larger than usual tail risks. The changes adopted could enable the design of a Fund Upper Credit Tranche (UCT) program in situations of exceptionally high uncertainty, in particular by modifying the Fund’s financing assurances policies in two ways. The first change allows official bilateral creditors to provide an upfront credible assurance about delivering debt relief and/or financing with the delivery of a contingent second-stage element of debt relief and/or financing once the exceptionally high uncertainty has been resolved. This would help establish that medium-term viability is being restored. The second change extends the use of a capacity-to-repay assurances from official bilateral creditors/donors from emergency financing to a UCT arrangement context. This would help establish adequate safeguards. These changes and their application to any specific country case in a situation of exceptionally high uncertainty would require the Fund to weigh whether it is prepared to accept the enterprise risks that such arrangement would entail.
Keywords:
Fund supported program; Exceptionally high uncertainty; financing assurances; debt relief; UCT program involvement; fund Upper Credit Tranche; UCT arrangement; UCT context; Fund arrangement; Debt sustainability; Emergency assistance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sweden: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sweden
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Sweden experienced a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021–22 but is potentially heading into a recession. Global headwinds started to steadily put breaks on consumption and business confidence in the third quarter of 2022, as external demand weakened, and higher inflation and interest rates are increasing the burden on households and firms. A slightly negative GDP growth and a moderate decline in inflation are expected in 2023. The recovery will be gradual over the medium term, and inflation is expected to decelerate towards its 2 percent target, but the uncertainty surrounding this outlook is high.
Keywords:
liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; money market rate; CPIF inflation; HICP inflation; inflation development; Inflation; Housing prices; Mortgages; Fiscal stance; Government finance statistics; Global; Baltics; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sweden: Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Sweden recovered rapidly from the Covid1-19 crisis, and GDP reached its prepandemic level in mid-2021. In the context of a robust supervision and regulation framework, the financial sector exited the crisis with substantial capital and liquidity buffers. Going forward, growth is expected to slow amid higher energy prices, tighter financial conditions, and reduced confidence following sharply lower house prices. Given stubborn inflation, the Riksbank has been normalizing rates more aggressively than expected last year. Systemic risks to the financial system arise from (i) high exposure of banks to the commercial real estate (CRE) sector; (ii) limited liquidity in corporate bond markets; (iii) high indebtedness of households and sensitivity to higher interest rates. The banking system is nearly three times 2021 GDP and is interconnected domestically and regionally.
Keywords:
FSAP bank solvency stress tests; derivative markets activity; coverage ratio; bank resolution plan; liquidity shock; bank stress tests; risk dashboard; commercial real estate; Stress testing; Systemic risk; Fintech; Crisis management; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Global; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sweden: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
CRE stress test result; contagion risk; credit line maturity; C. stress test; contagion in the CRE sector; Stress testing; Lines of credit; Securities markets; Bank credit; Bonds; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Samoa: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Samoa
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
After a three-year recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy is recovering, boosted by the reopening of tourism. However, higher global commodity prices briefly raised inflation to double-digit rates. Disciplined fiscal policies, buoyant revenue and remittances, and donor support have contributed to fiscal and external stability. The banking system has remained resilient to the economic downturn, although there has been some deterioration in asset quality. Pressures on correspondent banking relationships continue. With the pandemic-driven decline in investment, as well as rising numbers of seasonal workers abroad, output is projected to remain well below pre-pandemic trends.
Keywords:
APG follow-up assessment; policy area; U.S. dollar; inflation development; development opportunity; Natural disasters; Stress testing; Credit; Global; Asia and Pacific; Australia and New Zealand; Pacific Islands
Cover Policy Papers
The Central Bank Transparency Code—Findings Of The Pilot Reviews
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper reports to the Executive Board on the outcomes of the Central Bank Transparency Code (CBT) pilot reviews. The pilot CBT reviews helped central banks evaluate their transparency practices and strengthen dialogue with external stakeholders. The CBT pilots provided valuable information on the resources required for the reviews going forward. Staff will continue to offer CBT reviews to the rest of the membership. The staff will report back to the Board in FY2026 on the progress of the CBT reviews and an update to the Code following five years of implementation.
Keywords:
CBT review; transparency practice; central bank Transparency Code; CBT Pilots; guidance note; Central bank transparency; Financial sector stability; Central bank autonomy; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Central bank accountability; Western Hemisphere; Global; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover Virtual Training to Advance Revenue Administration (VITARA) Reference Guide: Strategic Management
Virtual Training to Advance Revenue Administration (VITARA) Reference Guide: Strategic Management
International Monetary Fund
,
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
,
Inter-American Center of Tax Administrations
, and
Intra-European Organisation of Tax Administrations

Abstract

This book is the first in a series of Virtual Training to Advance Revenue Administration (VITARA) reference guides that has been developed based on the contents of the VITARA online modules. This reference guide focuses on how a tax administration can benefit from the application of strategic management: the process of setting long–term objectives, implementing initiatives to achieve them, and measuring their success. Strategic management is a critical planning, communication, and management discipline. A strategically managed tax administration is forward looking and is equipped to respond to challenges arising from a continually changing external environment. This guide is divided into five chapters highlighting key concepts, processes, and good practices relating to the strategic management of a tax administration.

Keywords:
tax administration revenue administration strategic planning strategic plan strategy strategic management strategy implementation domestic revenue mobilization medium-term revenue strategy; tax administration objective; governance framework; management of the administration; compliance risk; administration's objective; Tax administration core functions; Large taxpayer office; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Assessing Recent Climate Policy Initiatives in the Netherlands: NETHERLANDS
Chen Chen
,
Koralai Kirabaeva
,
Danielle N Minnett
,
Ian W.H. Parry
,
Emanuele Massetti
,
Tjeerd Tim
,
Sylke von Thadden-Kostopoulos
, and
Geoffroy Dolphin
The Netherlands has committed to the EU’s ambitious targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and emissions neutrality in 2050 but at the same time is also vulnerable to sea-level rise and flood risks. This paper reviews recent mitigation policy initiatives in the Netherlands, including carbon levies for the industry and power sectors, energy and car tax reforms, and air passenger taxes, and recommends some modifications to these initiatives. The paper also provides assessments of hazards and macroeconomic risks from weather shocks and climate change and assesses the adaption plan against key principles on mainstream climate change into macro-fiscal planning.
Keywords:
Carbon levy; carbon pricing; climate change adaptation; climate change mitigation; emissions trading system; energy taxes; floods; green PFM; Netherlands climate strategy; price floor; sea-level rise; policy initiative; adaption initiatives in the Netherlands; Policy recommendation; C. assessing climate risk; Climate change; Natural disasters; Climate policy; Greenhouse gas emissions; Natural gas sector; Northern Europe; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Dutch Inflation: Developments, Drivers, and the Risk of Wage-Price Spiral: NETHERLANDS
Saioa Armendariz
and
Ms. Alla Myrvoda
Global inflation surged in 2022, driven by high gas price growth. With Russia being a key supplier of energy products, the start of the war in Ukraine has led to strong inflationary pressures in the euro area (EA), given the region’s significant exposure to the Russian gas. The price shock has been particularly strong in the Netherlands, largely due to the larger share of gas on the energy mix compared to other peers, making the country vulnerable to changing market conditions.
Keywords:
Inflation; energy; Phillips curve; wages; profits; energy mix; collective bargaining; inflation methodology; energy pass-through; inflation differential; core inflation composition; Wage-Price spiral; inflation development; I. Phillips Curve specification; Energy prices; Consumer prices; Fuel prices; Global