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International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This paper outlines key changes in the global trade landscape in recent years, reviews the role of the Fund in this area, and outlines a trade strategy for the Fund going forward. The analysis points to three key messages. First, while trade has been resilient vis-à-vis recent global shocks, the deteriorating trade policy environment poses risks to the current levels of prosperity. Second, the Fund has responded quickly to key trade developments in its multilateral surveillance, but attention to trade policy has declined pointing to the need of improved expertise. Third, a reinvigorated trade strategy for the Fund would help country authorities to address key challenges, including adjusting to structural changes associated with climate change and new technologies; promoting policy coherence between trade and non-trade objectives such as climate, inequality, and security; and managing rising geopolitical tensions and risks of geo-economic fragmentation.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

1. The Fund has a longstanding role in providing trade policy advice to its members through multilateral, regional, and bilateral surveillance. The root of the IMF's mandate primarily lies in Article I, which specifies that one purpose of the IMF is “to facilitate the expansion and balanced growth of international trade…” (see Background Paper, Section 1). Trade work is carried out in three broad areas: (i) surveillance, where the bulk of the work takes place, (ii) lending, and (iii) capacity development.

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

REVIEW OF THE ROLE OF TRADE IN THE WORK OF THE FUND-BACKGROUND PAPER

International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund
Nina Biljanovska
,
Sophia Chen
,
Mr. R. G Gelos
,
Ms. Deniz O Igan
,
Mr. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria
,
Erlend Nier
, and
Mr. Fabian Valencia
The global financial crisis (GFC) underscored the need for additional policy tools to safeguard financial stability and ultimately macroeconomic stability. Systemic financial vulnerabilities had developed under a seemingly tranquil macroeconomic surface of low inflation and small output gaps. This challenged the precrisis view that achieving these traditional policy targets was a sufficient condition for macroeconomic stability. Thus, new tools had to be deployed to target specific financial vulnerabilities and to build buffers to cushion adverse aggregate shocks, while allowing traditional policy levers, including monetary and microprudential policies to focus on their traditional roles. Macroprudential policy measures emerged as the solution to this gap. Some of these measures had been used before the GFC (mostly in emerging markets). But it was only after the crisis that they were more widely adopted, and the toolkit expanded. This spurred a growing body of empirical research on the effects and potential shortfalls of these measures, with a further deepening of this knowledge gaining importance as policymakers confront increased financial stability risks in the post-pandemic world. Recognizing that there still is much to learn, this paper takes stock of our expanding understanding about the effects (and side effects) of macroprudential measures by focusing on these questions: What have we learned about the effects of macroprudential policy in containing the buildup of vulnerabilities? What do we know about the effects on economic activity and resilience? How do policy effects vary with conditions and over time? How important are leakages and circumvention? How do the effects on credit depend on other policies?
Nina Biljanovska
,
Sophia Chen
,
Mr. R. G Gelos
,
Ms. Deniz O Igan
,
Mr. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria
,
Erlend Nier
, and
Mr. Fabian Valencia
David Amaglobeli
,
Mengfei Gu
,
Mariano Moszoro
,
Yue Zhou
, and
Patricia L Escalante