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Abstract
Please click on the link to read a prepublication excerpt to this forthcoming book.
Abstract
This volume sets out the IMF’s By-Laws, which are adopted under the authority of, and are intended to be complementary to, the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, which are considered to prevail in the event of any conflict. The By-Laws cover a number of topics, including the size and composition of the IMF’s Board of Governors and Executive Board, applications for IMF membership, IMF quotas, voting rights, staff regulations, and the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights.
Abstract
South Asia’s Path to Resilient Growth highlights the remarkable development progress in South Asia and how the region can advance in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Steps include a renewed push toward greater trade and financial openness, while responding proactively to the distributional impact and dislocation associated with this structural transformation. Promoting a green and digital recovery remains important. The book explores ways to accelerate the income convergence process in the region, leveraging on the still-large potential demographic dividend in most of the countries. These include greater economic diversification and export sophistication, trade and foreign direct investment liberalization and participation in global value chains amid shifting regional and global conditions, financial development, and investment in human capital.
Abstract
After the strong rebound of 6.5 percent posted in 2021, growth in Asia and Pacific is expected to moderate to 4.0 percent in 2022 amid an uncertain global environment and rise to 4.3 percent in 2023. Inflation has risen above most central bank targets, but is expected to peak in late 2022. As the effects of the pandemic wane, the region faces new headwinds from global financial tightening and an expected slowdown of external demand. While Asia remains a relative bright spot in an increasingly lethargic global economy, it is expected to expand at a rate that is well below the average rate of 5½ percent seen over the preceding two decades. Policy support is gradually being withdrawn as inflation rises and idle capacity is utilized, but monetary policy should be ready to tighten faster if the rise in core inflation turns out to be more persistent. The region’s rising public debt lev¬els call for continued fiscal consolidation, so interven¬tions to mitigate global food and energy shocks should be well targeted, temporary, and budget neutral. Structural reforms are needed to boost growth and mitigate the scarring that is expected from the pan¬demic, especially making up for lost schooling through investments in education and training, promoting diversification, addressing the debt overhang from the pandemic, and harnessing digitalization. Strong multilateralism—including through international organizations, the Group of Twenty and regional processes—will be needed to mitigate geo-economic fragmentation and deliver much needed progress on climate change commitments.
Abstract
Os desdobramentos recentes nas Américas, ou seja, nos EUA e Canadá, e na América Latina e Caribe (ALC), foram dominados pelo impacto de dois choques mundiais distintos: a pandemia de COVID19 e, em seguida, a invasão da Ucrânia pela Rússia. Um terceiro choque, o aperto das condições financeiras, agora está moldando as perspectivas. Após uma forte contração em 2020, a maioria das economias das Américas registrou uma forte retomada em 2021 e no inÃcio de 2022, com a ajuda da recuperação mundial, da normalização dos setores de serviços e do boom dos preços das commodities. Contudo, pressões inflacionárias se acumularam com as rupturas relacionadas à pandemia, polÃticas expansionistas, a recuperação da demanda e o impacto da guerra na Ucrânia sobre os preços de energia e alimentos. A resposta ágil das autoridades monetárias da ALC à subida da inflação, bem antes de outras economias, ajudou a conter as pressões sobre os preços e manter as expectativas de inflação de longo prazo ancoradas, mas a inflação permanece alta. Em meio ao aperto monetário e financeiro mundial e, em sequência, à desaceleração do crescimento global e ao abrandamento dos preços das commodities, a previsão é que a atividade desacelere nas Américas no fim de 2022 e em 2023 e, ao mesmo tempo, as pressões inflacionárias recuem gradualmente. Os riscos de deterioração da conjuntura dominam as perspectivas e decorrem de condições financeiras mais restritivas, de uma desaceleração mundial mais pronunciada e de uma inflação arraigada. No caso da ALC, uma queda nos preços das commodities e agitações sociais são riscos importantes. Como a inflação ainda precisa baixar e a maioria das economias ainda opera no seu potencial ou próximo dele, convém evitar uma suavização prematura da polÃtica monetária e é preciso manter a orientação atual. A comunicação clara das intenções das polÃticas será fundamental para reduzir a incerteza e manter as expectativas de inflação ancoradas. O apoio fiscal implantado para mitigar o impacto da inflação sobre os mais vulneráveis deve ser acompanhado por medidas compensatórias, onde não houver espaço fiscal, mas também deve apoiar os esforços das autoridades monetárias para conter a inflação. Dada a elevação dos custos de financiamento, reforçar os quadros fiscais e levar à frente uma consolidação fiscal inclusiva que proteja os objetivos sociais fundamentais serão essenciais para, de forma confiável, trazer a dÃvida pública para uma trajetória fortemente decrescente e, ao mesmo tempo, assegurar a estabilidade social. Impulsionar o crescimento da ALC no médio prazo exige aumentar a produtividade e os investimentos público e privado de boa qualidade. As polÃticas do lado da oferta devem concentrar-se em fortalecer o capital humano, simplificar e modernizar a regulamentação trabalhista e remover as barreiras à entrada e saÃda de empresas.
Abstract
La evolución económica reciente en las Américas —Estados Unidos, Canadá, y América Latina y el Caribe (ALC)— ha estado dominada por el impacto de dos shocks mundiales distintos: la pandemia de COVID19 y luego la invasión de Rusia a Ucrania. Un tercer shock —el endurecimiento de las condiciones financieras— está ahora incidiendo en las perspectivas. Tras sufrir contracciones severas en 2020, la mayorÃa de las economÃas de las Américas se recuperaron con fuerza en 2021 y a comienzos de 2022, ayudadas por la recuperación mundial, la normalización del sector de servicios y el auge en los precios de las materias primas. Sin embargo, las presiones inflacionarias se acumularon debido a perturbaciones relacionadas con la pandemia, la adopción de polÃticas expansivas, el repunte de la demanda y el efecto que la guerra en Ucrania ha tenido sobre los precios de la energÃa y los alimentos. La rápida respuesta de las autoridades monetarias de ALC frente al aumento de la inflación —mucho antes que en otras economÃas— ayudó a contener las presiones en los precios y a mantener ancladas las expectativas inflacionarias a largo plazo, pero la inflación sigue siendo elevada. En medio del endurecimiento monetario y financiero mundial, y la consiguiente ralentización del crecimiento mundial y la moderación de los precios de las materias primas, se prevé que la actividad se desacelere en toda la región de las Américas a finales de 2022 y en 2023, al tiempo que se espera que las presiones inflacionarias cedan gradualmente. Los riesgos a la baja predominan en las perspectivas, y se vinculan con las condiciones financieras más restrictivas, una desaceleración mundial más pronunciada y el arraigamiento de la inflación. En ALC, una drástica caÃda de los precios de las materias primas y el malestar social son riesgos importantes. Dado que la inflación aún no cede, y que la mayorÃa de las economÃas siguen operando a su nivel potencial o cerca de este, debe evitarse un relajamiento prematuro de la polÃtica monetaria, la cual debe mantener su curso. Para reducir la incertidumbre y mantener las expectativas inflacionarias ancladas, será fundamental comunicar con claridad las intenciones de polÃtica. El apoyo fiscal desplegado para amortiguar el impacto de la inflación en los grupos más vulnerables debe ir acompañado de medidas compensatorias cuando no exista espacio fiscal, pero también para respaldar los esfuerzos de las autoridades monetarias para controlar la inflación. Dados los crecientes costos de financiamiento, será esencial apuntalar los marcos fiscales y avanzar con una consolidación fiscal inclusiva —que proteja los objetivos sociales—, a fin de encauzar la deuda pública en una sólida trayectoria descendente de forma creÃble, garantizando a la vez la estabilidad social. Para estimular el crecimiento de ALC a mediano plazo es necesario fomentar la productividad y la inversión pública y privada de buena calidad. Las polÃticas por el lado de la oferta deben centrarse en reforzar el capital humano, simplificar y modernizar la normativa laboral, y eliminar las barreras que dificultan la entrada y la salida de las empresas.
Abstract
Recent developments in the Western Hemisphere—that is, the United States/Canada and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)—have been dominated by the impact of two distinct global shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic and then the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A third shock—the tightening of financial conditions—is now shaping the outlook. After contracting sharply in 2020, most of the Western Hemisphere’ economies recovered strongly in 2021 and early 2022, helped by the global recovery, the normalization of service sectors, and booming commodity prices. However, inflation pressures built up with pandemic-related disruptions, expansionary policies, rebounding demand, and the impact of the war in Ukraine on energy and food prices. The swift response of LAC’s monetary authorities to rising inflation—well ahead of other economies—helped contain price pressures and keep long-term inflation expectations anchored, but inflation remains high. Amid global monetary and financial tightening, and the ensuing slowdown in global growth and softening of commodity prices, activity is expected to decelerate throughout the Western Hemisphere in late 2022 and 2023, while inflation pressures are expected to recede gradually. Downside risks dominate the outlook and stem from tighter financial conditions, a more pronounced global slowdown, and entrenched inflation. For LAC, a sharp fall in commodity prices and social unrest are important risks. With inflation yet to abate and most economies still operating at or near potential, monetary policy should avoid easing prematurely and must stay the course. Clear communication of policy intentions will be key to reducing uncertainty and keeping inflation expectations anchored. Fiscal support deployed to mitigate the impact of inflation on the most vulnerable should be accompanied by compensating measures, where fiscal space does not exist, but also support monetary authorities’ efforts to tame inflation. Given rising financing costs, strengthening fiscal frameworks and advancing with inclusive fiscal consolidation—that protects key social objectives—will be essential to credibly putting public debt on a firm downward path while ensuring social stability. Boosting LAC’s medium-term growth requires raising productivity and good-quality public and private investment. Supply-side policies should focus on strengthening human capital, simplifying and modernizing labor regulations, and lifting barriers to firm entry and exit.
Abstract
In a worsening global environment, economies in the Middle East and Central Asia are being buffeted by a confluence of shocks: a global slowdown, high and volatile food and energy prices, faster and stronger than expected tightening of financial conditions, and the risk of fragmentation. The region’s emerging market and middle-income economies (EM&MIs) and low-income countries (LICs) are hit hard, with many facing curtailed access to market financing, while oil-exporting countries are being buffered by still-high energy prices. The adverse impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) has thus far been milder than expected. Still, the CCA’s strong ties to Russia entail substantial risks to the region’s outlook. The most urgent policy challenge for all countries is to tackle the cost-of-living crisis by restoring price stability, protecting vulnerable groups through targeted support, and ensuring food security. Policy trade-offs in EM&MIs and LICs have become more pronounced than ever, as they also need to preserve debt sustainability and financial stability. Oil exporters have the opportunity to maximize the benefits of the oil windfall by building buffers and advancing their diversification plans. CCA countries should carefully assess the magnitude and durability of the initial spillovers from the war in Ukraine and adjust their policy mix accordingly. Limited policy space in many countries raises the urgency of structural reforms to bolster economic growth while transforming economies to become more resilient, sustainable, diversified, and inclusive.
Abstract
In a worsening global environment, economies in the Middle East and Central Asia are being buffeted by a confluence of shocks: a global slowdown, high and volatile food and energy prices, faster and stronger than expected tightening of financial conditions, and the risk of fragmentation. The region’s emerging market and middle-income economies (EM&MIs) and low-income countries (LICs) are hit hard, with many facing curtailed access to market financing, while oil-exporting countries are being buffered by still-high energy prices. The adverse impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) has thus far been milder than expected. Still, the CCA’s strong ties to Russia entail substantial risks to the region’s outlook. The most urgent policy challenge for all countries is to tackle the cost-of-living crisis by restoring price stability, protecting vulnerable groups through targeted support, and ensuring food security. Policy trade-offs in EM&MIs and LICs have become more pronounced than ever, as they also need to preserve debt sustainability and financial stability. Oil exporters have the opportunity to maximize the benefits of the oil windfall by building buffers and advancing their diversification plans. CCA countries should carefully assess the magnitude and durability of the initial spillovers from the war in Ukraine and adjust their policy mix accordingly. Limited policy space in many countries raises the urgency of structural reforms to bolster economic growth while transforming economies to become more resilient, sustainable, diversified, and inclusive.
Abstract
In a worsening global environment, economies in the Middle East and Central Asia are being buffeted by a confluence of shocks: a global slowdown, high and volatile food and energy prices, faster and stronger than expected tightening of financial conditions, and the risk of fragmentation. The region’s emerging market and middle-income economies (EM&MIs) and low-income countries (LICs) are hit hard, with many facing curtailed access to market financing, while oil-exporting countries are being buffered by still-high energy prices. The adverse impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) has thus far been milder than expected. Still, the CCA’s strong ties to Russia entail substantial risks to the region’s outlook. The most urgent policy challenge for all countries is to tackle the cost-of-living crisis by restoring price stability, protecting vulnerable groups through targeted support, and ensuring food security. Policy trade-offs in EM&MIs and LICs have become more pronounced than ever, as they also need to preserve debt sustainability and financial stability. Oil exporters have the opportunity to maximize the benefits of the oil windfall by building buffers and advancing their diversification plans. CCA countries should carefully assess the magnitude and durability of the initial spillovers from the war in Ukraine and adjust their policy mix accordingly. Limited policy space in many countries raises the urgency of structural reforms to bolster economic growth while transforming economies to become more resilient, sustainable, diversified, and inclusive.