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Cover Policy Papers
Staff Guidance Note on The Implementation of The IMF Strategy for Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCS)
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
This note provides operational advice and information to help staff implement the IMF Strategy for Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCS) approved by the Executive Board on March 9, 2022. Topics covered include (i) the new IMF FCS classification methodology, which is aligned with that of the World Bank; (ii) the preparation of Country Engagement Strategies (CES) that will be rolled out across FCS to ensure that Fund engagement is appropriately tailored to country-specific manifestations of fragility and/or conflict; (iii) advice on tailoring the thematic focus of Article IV consultations and Fund analytics to FCS, as well as on the prioritization, design, and implementation of capacity development (CD) projects in fragile contexts; (iv) guidance on making full use of the flexibilities of the lending toolkit; (v) guidance on engaging in specific FCS situations, including building accountable institutions to exit fragility, cases of rising fragility risks, active conflict, post-conflict, and addressing the impact of external shocks and spillovers; and (v) strengthening partnerships with humanitarian, development, and peace actors, in accordance with the Fund’s mandate. Dedicated annexes provide additional information on the CES process, addressing good governance in FCS, program design, and country examples of Fund engagement in FCS.
Keywords:
fragility; conflict; fragile and conflict-affected states; political economy; inclusive growth; macroeconomic policy; absorptive capacity; balance of payments; country engagement strategies; capacity development; surveillance; partnerships; governance; FCS staff development; FCS strategy; FCS list; FCS classification; FCS circumstances; Balance of payments need; Capacity utilization; Climate change; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: 2022 Article IV Consultation, Third Review Under The Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Requests for A Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic and extreme weather events have aggravated Madagascar’s fragility. The poverty rate is estimated to be above 80 percent. After a stronger-than-expected recovery in 2021, growth is estimated to have decelerated in 2022 mostly due to climate shocks and a worsening global environment. Fiscal performance has deteriorated with weak revenue performance and increasing crossliabilities with oil distributors. While fiscal and external deficits have widened, fiscal and external sustainability are preserved in the medium term.
Keywords:
fund assistance; government institution; Policy discussion; implementation support AFS PFM regulation; mining taxation reform; fund-supported program; financial support; Budget planning and preparation; Global; Africa
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Sweden’s Corporate Vulnerabilities: A Focus on Commercial Real Estate: SWEDEN
Svetlana Vtyurina
and
Rhiannon Sowerbutts
Commercial Real Estate (CRE) debt constitute a large portion of corporate debt. Due to the funding structure this creates substantial risks for the financial system and the real economy, in general, due to broader spillover effects. Stress tests, conducted to assess the resilience of CRE sector, show that the median interest rate coverage would drop below one in a severe scenario, resulting in a ¾ of firms with debt-at-risk. CRE sector’s concentration, interconnectedness and insufficient disclosure of liabilities calls for close monitoring of liabilities structure and adjusting banks’ capital levels to better reflect current risks.
Keywords:
Sweden; Corporate Vulnerabilities; Commercial Real Estate; CRE; Real Estate Economics; Stress Test; Macroprudential Policy; CRE stress test result; CRE firm; CRE indicator; CRE sector; credit line maturity; Stress testing; Lines of credit; Corporate sector; Securities markets; Bank credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sri Lanka: Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sri Lanka
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Sri Lanka fell into an unprecedented crisis as a result of a series of shocks and policy missteps. Debt rose to unsustainable levels resulting from large fiscal imbalances, and access to international capital markets was lost soon after large tax cuts and the onset of the COVID-19. Reserves were depleted, leading to a sharp exchange rate depreciation, and debt service was suspended in the spring of 2022. Sizable monetary financing to meet fiscal obligations contributed to a surge in inflation. Sri Lanka’s economy is in deep recession and financial stability is at risk given the tight financialsovereign nexus. People are suffering from food and energy shortages, exacerbating deep-rooted public dissatisfaction and creating a vulnerable political and social environment.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cameroon: Third Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, and Requests for Waivers for Performance Criteria Applicability, Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cameroon
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Cameroon, a fragile and conflict affected state, proved resilient to the COVID- 19 shock but is now facing increased challenges in an uncertain global environment. The recovery, which was supported by higher oil prices and non-oil production in 2021, continued in 2022, against the backdrop of Russia’s war in Ukraine, inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and tight global financial conditions. Cameroon has successfully completed two reviews since the approval in July 2021 of the three-year arrangements under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for SDR 483 million (about US$689.5 million, or 175 percent of quota). Completion of the third review will allow the total disbursement of SDR 55.2 million (about US$73.3 million).
Keywords:
EFF review discussion; IMF team; paced borrowing policy; transparency policy; mechanism reform; Energy subsidies; Credit; Fiscal stance; Global; Central Africa
Cover Policy Papers
The Chair’s Summing Up Independent Evaluation Office—The IMF’s Emergency Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic
International Monetary Fund
(IEO), which provides an early evaluation of the Fund’s emergency response to the initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic and seeks to draw lessons from the experience for responding to possible future global crises. They highlighted the report’s key finding that the Fund’s response was effective and agile to a crisis like no other, despite the extraordinary challenges and risks, as the Fund rapidly adapted its lending framework and internal processes to serve the membership, help to close large financing gaps, and give confidence to the membership and markets by making its resources available expeditiously under adequate safeguards. Besides lending, Directors noted that the Fund also undertook useful analytical work and gave extensive and timely policy advice and capacity development. They welcomed the report’s finding that the Fund’s corporate response was adapted quickly, including by reprioritizing work, introducing HR and budget initiatives, and swiftly embracing the virtual environment. Directors especially commended staff for their strong dedication during these challenging circumstances.
Keywords:
IEO recommendation; IEO evaluation; enterprise risk assessment; COVID-19; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Statement by the Managing Director on the Independent Evaluation Office Report on The IMF’s Emergency Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Executive Board Meeting March 13, 2023
International Monetary Fund
As the evaluation notes, the Fund’s rapid response was not without costs and risks. The decision to provide extraordinary access, including through emergency financing, in the face of this unprecedented crisis has inevitably raised pressures on the Fund’s own, and its members’, balance sheets. Moreover, according to the report, some stakeholders did not feel adequately consulted in the initial weeks of the pandemic, staff experienced enormous work pressures, and in at least a few instances, national authorities did not perceive that the way policy guidance on 2 access was applied was entirely evenhanded. I am confident we can learn from the experience and do even better in the future; and I believe the IEO’s high-level recommendations will help us to do so.
Keywords:
lending toolkit; risk assessment; emergency financing access limit; COVID-19; Emergency assistance; Crisis management; Global
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
BOTSWANA: Domestic Bond Market Development
Trever A Lessard
,
Laszlo Buzas
, and
Bill Northfield
At the request of the authorities, an IMF team undertook a technical assistance mission to Botswana, from August 17–26, 2022, to support efforts to develop the local currency government bond market. The mission assessed the current stage of the sovereign debt market and formulated policy recommendations for each of the six building blocks included in the Guidance Note for Developing Local Currency Bond Markets.
Keywords:
sovereign debt; debt management; local currency bond market development; financial market development
Cover IMF Working Papers
Central Bank Digital Currency and Financial Inclusion
Brandon Tan
In this paper, we develop a model incorporating the impact of financial inclusion to study the implications of introducing a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC). CBDCs in developing countries (unlike in advanced countries) have the potential to bank large unbanked populations and boost financial inclusion which can increase overall lending and reduce bank disintermediation risks. Our model captures two key channels. First, CBDC issuance can increase bank deposits from the previously unbanked by incentivizing the opening of bank accounts for access to CBDC wallets (offsetting potential flows from deposits to CBDCs among those already banked). Second, data from CBDC usage allows for the building of credit to reduce credit-risk information asymmetry in lending. We find that CBDC can increase overall lending if (1) bank deposit liquidity risk is low, (2) the size and relative wealth of the previously unbanked population is large, and (3) CBDC is valuable to households as a means of payment or for credit-building. CBDC can still be optimal for household welfare even when overall lending decreases as households benefit from the value of using CBDC for payments, CBDC provides an alternative "safe" savings vehicle, and CBDC generates greater surplus in lending by reducing credit-risk information asymmetry. Most countries are considering a "two-tier" CBDC model, where central banks issue CBDC to commercial banks which in turn distribute them to consumers. If non-bank payment system providers can distribute CBDC, fewer funds will flow into deposit accounts from the unbanked because a bank account is no longer needed to access CBDC. If CBDC data is shareable with banks, those without bank accounts can still build credit and access lower interest rate loans. This design is optimal for welfare if the gains from greater access to CBDC outweigh the contraction in lending.
Keywords:
CBDC; Financial Inclusion; Digital currency