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Cover IMF Working Papers
Policy Responses to High Energy and Food Prices
David Amaglobeli
,
Mengfei Gu
,
Emine Hanedar
,
Mr. Gee Hee Hong
, and
Celine Thevenot
The surge in energy and food prices, which was amplified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has prompted a flurry of policy responses by countries during 2022. The aim of these policy responses was to mitigate social and economic impact of higher prices. In this paper we document announcements of policy measures based on the Database of Energy and Food Price Actions (DEFPA), which was developed based on two rounds of survey responses of IMF country teams conducted in March/April and June/July of 2022. The paper also provides discussion on policy trade-offs when considering appropriate policy responses both for countries with strong and weak social safety nets. Key policy message is that providing targeted support to households in the form of cash transfers is the most cost-effective way of alleviating the burden on vulnerable households and have to be preferred over broad-based mechanisms that prevent international prices to pass through to domestic consumers.
Keywords:
Energy prices; food Prices; cost of living; social policy
Cover IMF Working Papers
Calibrating Macroprudential Policies in Europe Amid Rising Housing Market Vulnerability
Ms. Laura Valderrama
Housing market developments are in the spotlight in Europe. Over-stretched valuations amid tightening financial conditions and a cost-of-living crisis have increased risks of a sustained downturn and exposed challenging trade-offs for macroprudential policy between ensuring financial system resilience and smoothing the macro-financial cycle. Against this backdrop, this paper provides detailed considerations regarding how to (re)set macroprudential policy tools in response to housing-related systemic risk in Europe, providing design solutions to avoid unintended consequences during a tightening phase, and navigating the trade-offs between managing the build-up of vulnerabilities and the macro-financial cycle in a downturn. It also proposes a novel framework to measure the effectiveness of tools and avoid overlaps by quantifying the risks addressed by different macroprudential instruments. Finally, it introduces a taxonomy allowing to assess a country’s macroprudential stance and whether adjustments to current policy settings are warranted—such as the relaxation of capital-based tools and possibly some borrower-based measures in the event of a more severe downturn.
Keywords:
Housing markets; household vulnerability; income distribution; economic cycle; financial stability; macroprudential policy.
Cover Policy Papers
Implementation Plan in Response to the Board-Endorsed Recommendations from the IEO Evaluation Report on IMF Engagement with Small Developing States
International Monetary Fund
This paper presents a Management Implementation Plan (MIP) with actions to take forward the Board-endorsed recommendations from the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO)’s report on IMF Engagement with Small Developing States (SDS). The actions in the MIP are broad in scope, touching on all modalities of the Fund’s engagement with SDS, and seek to be comprehensive, self-reinforcing, cost-effective, and designed to be adopted as a package. The MIP aims to support a targeted and effective recalibration of engagement with SDS; enhance IMF’s surveillance and capacity development in SDS members; strengthen the Fund’s lending engagement with SDS, in line with the applicable policy frameworks; and secure an effective, well-tailored and more continuous staff presence in SDS.
Keywords:
Capacity development; climate; lending; policy frameworks; training; small developing states; staffing; surveillance; SDS staff guidance note; SDS member; SDS-SGN update; presence in SDS; IMF's transparency policy; Climate change; Budget planning and preparation; Financial sector; Caribbean; Global; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Colombia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
inflation expectation; inflation driver; fiscal policy response; supply-driven shock; Colombia's export; Inflation; Exports; Export diversification; Agricultural commodities; Global; Central America; South America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Colombia: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Benefiting from an effective policy response to the pandemic and highly favorable terms of trade, Colombia’s economy grew at one of the fastest rates among emerging economies in 2022. This demand-led recovery, however, contributed to internal and external imbalances, for which policy tightening has been now underway. A new administration took office in August 2022, with social equity and climate at the center of its ambitious reform agenda.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; headline inflation; price stability mandate; Policy implementation; CPI basket; Inflation; Fiscal rules; Credit; Global; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Vanuatu: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Vanuatu
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Following a successful COVID-19 containment strategy, the border reopened in July 2022, and tourism is returning to Vanuatu. Economic activity is expected to be strong in the near term, with real GDP growing around 3.4 percent in 2023, as tourism and construction activities resume. High imported prices are likely to stoke inflation and push the current account into deficit, while fiscal policy will turn more expansionary. The Economic Citizenship Program (ECP) is facing significant challenges, with important implications for revenue and governance, while Air Vanuatu, the national airline, is facing serious operational and financial difficulties. Key structural vulnerabilities relating to climate change, limited infrastructure development capacity, and weak governance, persist.
Keywords:
staff appraisal; reconstruction effort; fuel shortage; money market rate; baseline projection; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; ECP revenue; Natural disasters; External sector statistics; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global; Pacific Islands; Australia and New Zealand; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Georgia: Technical Assistance Report-Operationalizing the New Bank Recovery and Resolution Framework
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
In response to a request from the National Bank of Georgia (NBG), the Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted a Technical Assistance (TA) mission during September 5–16, 2022 as follow-up to the mission that took place during March 17–April 20, 2022. The first mission provided initial assistance to the authorities in operationalizing the new bank recovery and resolution framework, building on the recommendations from the 2021 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). This second mission deepened that assistance by providing further guidance on, among others, (i) the architecture of the resolution framework; including triggers, resolvability assessments, and resolution planning; (ii) the operationalization of key resolution tools (notably, by reviewing playbooks for the sale of business and bridge banks tools); (iii) data requirements for undertaking the valuations necessary to support resolution; (iv) resolution funding options; and (v) interagency coordination and communications. Moreover, the mission discussed potential impediments (and associated mitigants) to effective resolution and reviewed the NBG’s progress with the implementation of the recommendations on early intervention, the Interagency Financial Stability Committee, and other topics that were covered by the first mission.
Keywords:
bridge bank resolution tool; request of the National Bank of Georgia; Recovery planning; MCM mission; Monetary and Capital Markets department; staff of the NBG; mission chief; C. Resolution planning; Bank resolution framework; Bridge bank; Bank resolution; Crisis resolution; Crisis prevention; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Staff Guidance Note on The Implementation of The IMF Strategy for Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCS)
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
This note provides operational advice and information to help staff implement the IMF Strategy for Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCS) approved by the Executive Board on March 9, 2022. Topics covered include (i) the new IMF FCS classification methodology, which is aligned with that of the World Bank; (ii) the preparation of Country Engagement Strategies (CES) that will be rolled out across FCS to ensure that Fund engagement is appropriately tailored to country-specific manifestations of fragility and/or conflict; (iii) advice on tailoring the thematic focus of Article IV consultations and Fund analytics to FCS, as well as on the prioritization, design, and implementation of capacity development (CD) projects in fragile contexts; (iv) guidance on making full use of the flexibilities of the lending toolkit; (v) guidance on engaging in specific FCS situations, including building accountable institutions to exit fragility, cases of rising fragility risks, active conflict, post-conflict, and addressing the impact of external shocks and spillovers; and (v) strengthening partnerships with humanitarian, development, and peace actors, in accordance with the Fund’s mandate. Dedicated annexes provide additional information on the CES process, addressing good governance in FCS, program design, and country examples of Fund engagement in FCS.
Keywords:
fragility; conflict; fragile and conflict-affected states; political economy; inclusive growth; macroeconomic policy; absorptive capacity; balance of payments; country engagement strategies; capacity development; surveillance; partnerships; governance; FCS staff development; FCS strategy; FCS list; FCS classification; FCS circumstances; Balance of payments need; Capacity utilization; Climate change; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: 2022 Article IV Consultation, Third Review Under The Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Requests for A Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic and extreme weather events have aggravated Madagascar’s fragility. The poverty rate is estimated to be above 80 percent. After a stronger-than-expected recovery in 2021, growth is estimated to have decelerated in 2022 mostly due to climate shocks and a worsening global environment. Fiscal performance has deteriorated with weak revenue performance and increasing crossliabilities with oil distributors. While fiscal and external deficits have widened, fiscal and external sustainability are preserved in the medium term.
Keywords:
fund assistance; government institution; Policy discussion; implementation support AFS PFM regulation; mining taxation reform; fund-supported program; financial support; Budget planning and preparation; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
policy recommendation; food value chain vulnerability; social spending; food inflation; education outcome; Climate change; Natural disasters; Food security; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global