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Abstract
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Abstract
The economies of the Middle East and Central Asia proved resilient in 2022, despite a series of global shocks. However, this year—and potentially next—growth is expected to slow in the Middle East and North Africa as tight policies to fight inflation, reduce vulnerabilities, and rebuild buffers start to dent economic activity in many countries, and agreed oil production cuts curb growth in oil exporters. Inflation is projected to remain persistent. The outlook for Caucasus and Central Asia countries depends heavily on external factors, namely the impact of monetary tightening, and growth in their main trading partners, the pace of private transfers, and inflows of migrants from Russia. Uncertainty is high, and risks to the baseline are tilted to the downside amid financial stability concerns, particularly in advanced economies amid contagion fears. Policy trade-offs are even more complex, and policymakers will need to calibrate the policy mix carefully to reduce core inflation without triggering financial stress and excessive tightening and continue to provide targeted fiscal support to vulnerable groups while preserving debt sustainability and financial stability. Tight monetary and fiscal policies across the region amid tight global financial conditions call for accelerating structural reforms to bolster potential growth and enhance resilience.
Abstract
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A confluence of pre-existing structural factors and recent macroeconomic shocks are contributing to the aggravation of food insecurity in the Central African Republic. The government has a limited capacity to respond through social protection programs, due to fiscal and institutional fragility. Under the circumstances, the near-term response to reduce the adverse impacts includes increased humanitarian aid and resumption of donor support in the form of grants. In the medium to long term, policies to address the structural drivers of food insecurity should be part of government’s development agenda, acting on all four dimensions of food security—availability, access to, utilization and stability of food.
Many African countries have experienced substantial benefits from leapfrogging using digital technologies and vibrant Fintech activities. Yet successful digital transformation requires a certain level of readiness in terms of digital infrastructure, education, legal frameworks, and institutions, on which the CAR faces substantial gaps. CAR’s initial steps in the form of the 2022 crypto law have created legal uncertainties at the CEMAC level and raised numerous concerns but some of the most controversial provisions have been recently revised. The authorities have proceeded with the launch of a digital coin named Sango and namesake platform-ecosystem with multifaceted features. While only a limited amount of coins have been issued and other elements of the project have not been launched, project Sango has attracted considerable interest as it can potentially bring opportunities through digitization, while also raising complex risks. These range from macro-fiscal and financial to financial integrity, governance, consumer protection and others. The Sango project appears too complex, creating interconnectedness between multiple sectors and private and public balance sheets in a manner which could raise systemic risks, pointing to the importance of reconsidering the existing blueprint.