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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Panama: Technical Assistance Report-Macroprudential Policy Frameworks
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
At the request of the Superintendency of Banks of Panama (SBP), IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) provided two technical assistance (TA) missions in 2021 on macroprudential policy. This TA report is about the first mission, which evaluated the overall macroprudential policy framework in Panama, covering (1) the institutional arrangements; (2) the framework to assess systemic risks to prepare for policy actions; and (3) the policy toolkit. The assessment was conducted based on the IMF guidance (IMF, 2014), taking into account the country-specific circumstances in Panama. The TA report summarizes the mission’s findings and recommendations that were discussed with the authorities.
Keywords:
Financial sector stability Financial sector policy and analysis Macroprudential policy Macroprudential policy instruments; SBP plan; policy objective; TA project; policy action; Policy evaluation; SBP's communication; Macroprudential policy; Financial sector stability; Systemic risk; Systemic risk assessment; Commercial banks; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Panama: Technical Assistance Report-Macroprudential Policy Frameworks
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
At the request of the Superintendency of Banks of Panama (SBP), IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) provided two technical assistance (TA) missions in 2021 on macroprudential policy. This TA report is about the first mission, which evaluated the overall macroprudential policy framework in Panama, covering (1) the institutional arrangements; (2) the framework to assess systemic risks to prepare for policy actions; and (3) the policy toolkit. The assessment was conducted based on the IMF guidance (IMF, 2014), taking into account the country-specific circumstances in Panama. The TA report summarizes the mission’s findings and recommendations that were discussed with the authorities.
Cover IMF Working Papers
Uncovering CIP Deviations in Emerging Markets: Distinctions, Determinants and Disconnect
Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
and
Haonan Zhou
We provide a systematic empirical treatment of short-term Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations for a large set of emerging market (EM) currencies. EM CIP deviations have much larger volatilities than most G10 currencies and move in an opposite direction during global risk-off episodes. While off-shore EM CIP deviations are sensitive to changes in FX dealers’ risk-bearing capacities and global risk aversion, on-shore EM CIP deviations are largely unresponsive in segmented FX markets. Moreover, the sensitivity of offshore EM CIP deviations to global risk factors for currencies with segmented FX markets is stronger compared to their counterparts with integrated FX markets. We find weak evidence of country default risk affecting EM CIP deviations after accounting for global factors.
Keywords:
Covered interest parity; Interest rate differentials; Forward foreign exchange market; Financial market arbitrage; Emerging markets; CIP deviation; FX Market development; short-term Covered Interest Parity; country default risk; segmented FX markets; Interest rate parity; Currencies; Currency markets; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Forward exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The 2020-2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe: A Phillips-Curve-Based Dissection
Chikako Baba
,
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Ting Lan
, and
Petia Topalova
In 2021-22, inflation in Europe soared to multidecade highs, consistently exceeding policymakers’ forecasts and surprising with its wide cross-country dispersion. This paper analyzes the key drivers of the inflation surge in Europe and its variation across countries. The analysis highlights significant differences in Phillips curve parameters across Europe’s economies. Inflation is more sensitive to domestic slack and external price pressures in emerging European economies compared to their advanced counterparts, which contributed to a greater passthrough of global commodity price shocks into domestic prices, and, consequently, to larger increases in inflation rates. Across Europe, inflation also appears to have become increasingly backward looking and more sensitive to commodity price shocks since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This finding helps explain why conventional (Phillips curve) inflation models consistently underpredicted the 2021-2022 inflation surge, although it remains too early to conclude there has been a structural break in the inflation process.
Keywords:
inflation; Phillips curve; slack; external price; backward-looking; inflation surge; benchmark Phillips Curve estimation; inflation model; inflation dynamics; inflation development; Energy prices; Food prices; Inflation persistence; COVID-19; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Internationalization of China’s Equity Markets
Juan J. Cortina
,
Mr. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria
,
Mr. Sergio L. Schmukler
, and
Jasmine Xiao
China’s equity markets internationalization process started in the early 2000s but accelerated after 2012, when Chinese firms’ shares listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen gradually became available to international investors. This paper studies the effects of the post-2012 internationalization events by comparing the evolution of equity financing and investment activities for: (i) domestic listed firms relative to firms that already had access to international investors and (ii) domestic listed firms that were directly connected to international markets relative to those that were not. The paper finds large increases in financial and investment activities for domestic listed and for connected firms, with significant aggregate effects. The evidence also suggests the rise in firms’ equity issuances was primarily and initially financed by domestic investors. International investors’ portfolio holdings in Chinese equity markets and ownership in firms increased markedly only once Chinese firms’ locally issued shares became part of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Keywords:
equity financing; equity market liberalization; firm investment; foreign investors; international investors; issuance activity; Stock Connect; portfolio holding; internationalization process; unconnected firm; China's equity markets; Stock markets; Stocks; Foreign corporations; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Market capitalization; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Production Technology, Market Power, and the Decline of the Labor Share
Agustin Velasquez
The labor share has been declining in the United States, and especially so in manufacturing. This paper investigates the role of capital accumulation and market power in explaining this decline. I first estimate the production function of 21 manufacturing sectors along time series and including time-varying markups. The elasticities of substitution for most sectors are estimated below one, implying that capital deepening cannot explain the labor share decline. I then track the long-run evolution of the labor share using the estimated production technology parameters. I decompose aggregate labor share changes into sector re-weights, capital-labor substitution, and market power effects. I find that the increase in market power, as reported in recent studies, can account for, at least, 76 percent of the labor share decline in manufacturing. Absent the rise in market power, the labor share would have remained constant in the second half of the 20th century.
Keywords:
Labor share; elasticity of substitution; capital accumulation; market power; labor share decline; market power effects; capital-labor substitution; market power narrative; markup series; capital share; Manufacturing; Income
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Future of PPPs in the Western Balkans
Mr. Jan Kees Martijn
,
Ms. Yan M Sun
,
William Lindquist
,
Yen N Mooi
,
Ezgi O. Ozturk
,
Hoda Selim
, and
Armine Khachatryan
Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) are increasingly an important vehicle for several Western Balkan countries to increase investment to reduce their infrastructure gaps. While there are benefits to well-designed and implemented PPPs, they also carry a potential for large fiscal risks and increased costs if not managed well. Countries with successful PPP programs typically benefit from a clear and well-designed PPP governance framework, which covers all stages of the PPP life cycle. Western Balkan countries need to address gaps in their PPP governance frameworks to fully reap the potential benefits from PPPs.
Keywords:
Infrastructure; Public-private partnerships; Western Balkans; governance framework; PPP procurement; PPP life cycle; future of PPP; PPP project; Fiscal risks; Public investment spending; PPP legislation; Risks of public-private partnership; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Estimating Digital Infrastructure Investment Needs to Achieve Universal Broadband
Edward Oughton
,
Mr. David Amaglobeli
, and
Mr. Mariano Moszoro
We develop a detailed model to evaluate the necessary investment requirements to achieve affordable universal broadband. The results indicate that approximately $418 billion needs to be mobilized to connect all unconnected citizens globally (targeting 40-50 GB/Month per user with 95 percent reliability). The bulk of additional investment is for emerging market economies (73 percent) and low-income developing countries (24 percent). We also find that if the data consumption level is lowered to 10-20 GB/Month per user, the total cost decreases by up to about half, whereas raising data consumption to 80-100 GB/Month per user leads to a cost increase of roughly 90 percent relative to the baseline. Moreover, a 40 percent cost decrease occurs when varying the peak hour quality of service level from the baseline 95 percent reliability, to only 50 percent reliability. To conclude, broadband policy assessments should be explicit about the quantity of data and the reliability of service provided to users. Failure to do so will lead to inaccurate estimates and, ultimately, to poor broadband policy decisions.
Keywords:
Broadband; Digital Infrastructure; Public Investment; Sustainable Development Goals; cost decrease; investment requirement; infrastructure investment; cost sensitivity; data consumption; policy assessment; estimation metrics; cost driver; data traffic; infrastructure cost modeling; Digitalization; Infrastructure; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Caribbean; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Getting into the Nitty-Gritty of Fiscal Multipliers: Small Details, Big Impacts
José Federico Geli
and
Afonso S. Moura
The lack of a standardized framework to report fiscal multipliers limits comparisons across studies, budgetary items, or countries. Within a unified analytical framework (using a panel of 177 countries), we study how key methodological details affect the size and persistence of fiscal multipliers‘ estimates. Our baseline results are in line with the existing literature with average cumulative medium-term multipliers of -2.1 (-2.5) for taxes on personal income, 0.3 (1.7) for investment and, -0.5 (1.9) for consumption for advanced (emerging market) economies. However, we show that slight changes in the identification of shocks, based on forecast errors or in the definition of the fiscal multiplier, can artificially increase both the size and decrease the precision of estimates. We also emphasize the importance of accounting for the endogenous dynamic responses of fiscal variables to fiscal innovations by showing that multipliers calculated simply as the output response to fiscal shocks, as it is common in the literature, can potentially bias the results.
Keywords:
Fiscal policy; Fiscal multipliers.; multiplier estimate; estimating multiplier; government investment multiplier; empirical estimate; multiplier definition; fiscal shock; Public investment spending; Fiscal multipliers; Personal income tax; Consumption; accumulation procedure; forecast error; baseline result; limits comparison; consumption shock; multiplier heterogeneity
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Public Perceptions of Climate Mitigation Policies: Evidence from Cross-Country Surveys
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Mr. Thomas Helbling
,
Salma Khalid
,
Hibah Khan
,
Giacomo Magistretti
,
Alexandre Sollaci
, and
Mr. Krishna Srinivasan
Building public support for climate mitigation is a key prerequisite to making meaningful strides toward implementing climate mitigation policies and achieving decarbonization. Using nationally representative individual-level surveys for 28 countries, this note sheds light on the individual characteristics and beliefs associated with climate risk perceptions and preferences for climate policies.
Keywords:
Climate change; climate policies; carbon tax; perceptions; survey; climate mitigation policy; policy efficacy; policy implication; era Dabla-Norris; policy support; Climate policy; Greenhouse gas emissions; Global; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Western Hemisphere