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Cover IMF Working Papers
Are We Heading for Another Debt Crisis in Low-Income Countries? Debt Vulnerabilities: Today vs the pre-HIPC Era
Chuku Chuku
,
Prateek Samal
,
Joyce Saito
,
Ms. Dalia S Hakura
,
Mr. Marcos d Chamon
,
Mr. Martin D. Cerisola
,
Guillaume Chabert
, and
Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
There are growing concerns that 25 years after the launch of the HIPC debt relief initiative, many low-income countries are again facing high debt vulnerabilities. This paper compares debt vulnerabilities in LICs today versus those on the eve of the HIPC Initiative and examines challenges to a similarly designed debt-relief framework. While solvency and liquidity indicators in most LICs have steadily worsened in recent years, they remain substantially better on average than they were on the eve of HIPC in the mid-1990s. This said, if current trends persist, debt vulnerabilities in LICs could (but would not necessarily) reach levels comparable to the pre-HIPC era over the medium- to long-term. Today’s more complex creditor landscape makes coordination challenging. It is therefore essential for countries to reduce today’s debt burdens promptly through economic reform, lowering the cost of financing, and debt restructuring on a case-by-case basis. The international community should also step up efforts to improve debt restructuring processes, including the G20 Common Framework, to ensure that debt relief is delivered in a timely and efficient manner where it is needed.
Keywords:
Debt Vulnerabilities; Creditor Coordination; Debt Relief; Low-Income Countries; Debt Sustainability Analysis; HIPC; Debt Overhang; HIPC debt burden indicator; HIPC debt relief initiative; financing landscape; LICS financing Needs; debt vulnerability; MDRI debt relief; Debt burden; Debt sustainability; Debt service; Global
Cover Fiscal Monitor April 2023: On the Path to Policy Normalization
Fiscal Monitor April 2023: On the Path to Policy Normalization
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The report discusses how public finances have fluctuated with multiple shocks since the pandemic, characterized by atypical growth, inflation dynamics, and fiscal support to mitigate the shocks. The recent financial turmoil aggravated an already uncertain and complex outlook with tight financing conditions and mounting concerns for debt vulnerabilities. In this volatile environment, fiscal policy should prioritize consistency with monetary policy to restore price and financial stability, while supporting the most vulnerable. Abrupt changes in financial conditions also call for fiscal restraint to tackle fiscal vulnerabilities. To that end, governments will need to give greater priority to rebuilding fiscal buffers by developing credible risk-based fiscal frameworks that promote consistent macroeconomic policies, reduce debt vulnerabilities over time, and build up the necessary room to handle future shocks.

Keywords:
fiscal policy normalization; cost-of-living crisis and food insecurity; rebuilding fiscal buffers; complex fiscal outlook amidst heightened uncertainty; macroeconomic policies consistency; targeted measures to protect the vulnerable; credible risk-based fiscal frameworks; boosting tax revenue; enhancing the Global Financial Safety Net; energy transition
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Implementation of more prudent macroeconomic policies in the second half of 2022 supported a moderation in inflation and improvements of fiscal and external balances through end-2022. However, against the backdrop of still large macroeconomic imbalances and challenges from an increasingly severe drought, the nascent improvements in inflation and reserve coverage have proved evasive. Meanwhile, policy setbacks have contributed to recent underperformance and added to uncertainties about the political resolve to adhere to the program ahead of the elections. The authorities reaffirmed their commitments to implement the program, which they continue to view as the key anchor for policy making. In this context, the review discussions focused on strengthening policies to secure delivery of key underlying program objectives, and on how best to adapt to an increasingly complex environment, while avoiding building future vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
waiver of nonobservance; pension moratorium; financing strategy; nonobservance of the performance criteria; step-up interest rate structure; Inflation; Natural disasters; Imports; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Role of Trade in the Work of the Fund
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This paper outlines key changes in the global trade landscape in recent years, reviews the role of the Fund in this area, and outlines a trade strategy for the Fund going forward. The analysis points to three key messages. First, while trade has been resilient vis-à-vis recent global shocks, the deteriorating trade policy environment poses risks to the current levels of prosperity. Second, the Fund has responded quickly to key trade developments in its multilateral surveillance, but attention to trade policy has declined pointing to the need of improved expertise. Third, a reinvigorated trade strategy for the Fund would help country authorities to address key challenges, including adjusting to structural changes associated with climate change and new technologies; promoting policy coherence between trade and non-trade objectives such as climate, inequality, and security; and managing rising geopolitical tensions and risks of geo-economic fragmentation.
Keywords:
trade policy; international trade; geo-economic fragmentation; bilateral surveillance; multilateral surveillance; trade expertise; value chain; fund Agenda; fund expertise; core trade area; addressing trade opportunity; trade diversification; trade-distortive policy; trade landscape; transparent trade policies; trade facilitation agreement; areas of fund expertise; Trade finance; Trade tensions; Trade barriers; Trade in services; Global; Asia and Pacific; East Asia
Cover Departmental Papers
Macroprudential Policy Effects: Evidence and Open Questions
Nina Biljanovska
,
Sophia Chen
,
Mr. R. G Gelos
,
Ms. Deniz O Igan
,
Mr. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria
,
Erlend Nier
, and
Mr. Fabian Valencia
The global financial crisis (GFC) underscored the need for additional policy tools to safeguard financial stability and ultimately macroeconomic stability. Systemic financial vulnerabilities had developed under a seemingly tranquil macroeconomic surface of low inflation and small output gaps. This challenged the precrisis view that achieving these traditional policy targets was a sufficient condition for macroeconomic stability. Thus, new tools had to be deployed to target specific financial vulnerabilities and to build buffers to cushion adverse aggregate shocks, while allowing traditional policy levers, including monetary and microprudential policies to focus on their traditional roles. Macroprudential policy measures emerged as the solution to this gap. Some of these measures had been used before the GFC (mostly in emerging markets). But it was only after the crisis that they were more widely adopted, and the toolkit expanded. This spurred a growing body of empirical research on the effects and potential shortfalls of these measures, with a further deepening of this knowledge gaining importance as policymakers confront increased financial stability risks in the post-pandemic world. Recognizing that there still is much to learn, this paper takes stock of our expanding understanding about the effects (and side effects) of macroprudential measures by focusing on these questions: What have we learned about the effects of macroprudential policy in containing the buildup of vulnerabilities? What do we know about the effects on economic activity and resilience? How do policy effects vary with conditions and over time? How important are leakages and circumvention? How do the effects on credit depend on other policies?
Keywords:
macroprudential policy financial stability; policy effect; IMF Library; Macroprudential effect; Macroprudential buffer; Macroprudential Policy database; Macroprudential policy; Macroprudential policy instruments; Credit; Countercyclical capital buffers; Bank credit; Global
Cover IMF Notes
Internet Adoption Trends during COVID-19
David Amaglobeli
,
Mengfei Gu
,
Mariano Moszoro
,
Yue Zhou
, and
Patricia L Escalante
This paper examines the common perception that internet adoption accelerated globally during the COVID-19 pandemic. The data show little evidence of a faster expansion of access to internet (extensive margin) across all country income groups but strong evidence of acceleration in the improvement in the quality of connectivity (intensive margin). The data also support that, despite a decline in internet prices over the past decade, affordability of digital services remains a concern for low-income developing countries.
Keywords:
Internet; digitalization; COVID-19
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Review of Program Monitoring with Board Involvement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to have a devastating economic and social impact. Active combat is concentrated in eastern and southern Ukraine, while continued attacks on critical energy infrastructure had a severe social toll over the winter. Civilian casualties continue to rise, and over a third of the population has been displaced. The war has had a profound impact on the economy: activity contracted by 30 percent in 2022, a large swathe of the country’s capital stock has been destroyed, and poverty is on the rise. The authorities have nevertheless managed to maintain overall macroeconomic and financial stability, thanks to skillful policymaking and substantial external support.
Keywords:
inflation-targeting regime; budget support; financing Gap Table; NBU reserve; authorities' capacity; Budget planning and preparation; Debt sustainability; Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Kitts and Nevis: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
C. climate change ADAPTATION; labor market diagnosis; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; D. wage policy; Policy implication; Public sector wages; Labor markets; Wages; Employment; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Kitts and Nevis: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for St. Kitts and Nevis
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Economic growth rebounded strongly in 2022 despite global headwinds. GDP is estimated to have grown by 9 percent in 2022 after contracting 14.5 percent in 2020 and 0.9 percent in 2021. The lifting of all COVID-related travel restrictions in August sparked a strong rebound in the tourism sector and across the economy. Yet economic activity is not back to pre-pandemic levels. Inflation picked up, increasing from 1.9 percent in 2021 to 3.8 percent in 2022, reaching the highest level in a decade. The authorities’ proactive policy response, facilitated by the fiscal buffers accumulated from a decade of prudent fiscal policy, helped shelter domestic prices from high global energy and food prices. These measures nonetheless took a heavy toll on fiscal accounts in 2022. The primary balance ex-CBI revenue and land buybacks, an indicator of the underlying fiscal stance, deteriorated to a deficit of 17 percent of GDP (vs. 15 percent in 2021). Large CBI inflows in 2022 helped finance this expansion, keeping public debt below the ECCU regional target of 60 percent of GDP. The current account deficit is estimated to have narrowed in 2022, supported by tourism recovery.
Keywords:
CBI revenue; authorities of St. Kitts and Nevis; GDP estimate; CBI program; ECCB website; authorities plan; authorities in St. Kitts and Nevis; authorities' effort; staff project growth; Current spending; Capital spending; Public sector; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Renminbi Usage in Cross-Border Payments: Regional Patterns and the Role of Swaps Lines and Offshore Clearing Banks
Hector Perez-Saiz
and
Ms. Longmei Zhang
The paper examines the usage of the Renminbi (RMB) as an international payment currency. Globally, the use of RMB remains small, accounting for 2 percent of total cross-border transactions. Using country-level transaction data from Swift** for 2010–21, we find significant regional variations in the use of RMB for cross-border payments. While RMB is little used in some regions, it has gained traction in others, and these cross-country differences have widened over the years. Such differences can be partly explained by an economy’s geographic distance, political distance, and trade linkages with China. However, it also reflects the impact of policy measures by the People’s Bank of China, including establishing bilateral swap lines and offshore clearing banks. Both policy measures helped to address offshore RMB liquidity shortages given China’s overall capital account restrictions, with the offshore clearing banks having a quantitatively larger impact. Our analysis contributes to a better understanding of the growing importance of RMB within the international monetary system.
Keywords:
RMB internationalization; Swift; Swap lines; Offshore Clearing Banks; liquidity shortage; RMB payment; renminbi usage; usage of the renminbi; Offshore financial centers; Currencies; Capital account; Reserve currencies; International monetary system; Global