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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Poverty Reduction Strategy and Growth Strategy
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Republic of Moldova is continuously transforming, directly affected by regional and global events: the rise in the cost of energy and food products, the security crisis in the region created by the aggression of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, the reformation of value chains and even climate change affecting agricultural production. In this extremely difficult context, in addition to the short-term interventions needed to cope with the current crises, the Government has proposed to define a medium- and long-term development vision, in order to strengthen our resilience to future crises and create the basis for a sustainable and inclusive development of the country.
Keywords:
growth strategy; development partner; copyright page; publication service; justice system; Aging; Global; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mexico: Technical Assistance Report on Chain Linking
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
"This title is available in Spanish only" A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted remotely during February 4-18, 2022, to providing guidance to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) of Mexico in implementing the chain-linked volume measures with previous year weights in their national accounts (NA) statistics. Currently, INEGI compiles Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and related NA economic indicators at constant prices with fixed base year indices of 2013. Chain-linked volume measures provide improved and more accurate estimates of economic growth, especially in periods of structural change. The TA mission also provided extensive training on compiling chained indices with own country examples from the economic surveys and national accounts statistics to a large group of INEGI staff and discussed with INEGI management an action plan for developing and implementing chained indices for the national accounts and short-term indicators.
Keywords:
National Accounts chained indices volume measures weights
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jamaica: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report and Staff Statement
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Jamaica has built a strong track record of investing in institutions and prioritizing macroeconomic stability. This aided the country to adapt to the difficult global environment of the past few years. The authorities provided targeted support to vulnerable households and firms during the pandemic but promptly scaled it back as conditions normalized. Similarly, in the wake of the war in Ukraine, domestic food and energy prices adjusted in line with shifts in international markets while targeted support was provided to the poor.
Keywords:
securities dealer; bank financial system; BOJ executive; head of the FSC; BOJ with the mandate; quarterly balance of payments; Climate change; Natural disasters; Government finance statistics; Global; Caribbean; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Selected Issues
Keywords:
green finance landscape; C. power market; market reform; policy initiative; E. Policy implication; Climate finance; Credit; Greenhouse gas emissions; Total factor productivity; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Selected Issues
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Panama: Technical Assistance Report-Macroprudential Policy Frameworks
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
At the request of the Superintendency of Banks of Panama (SBP), IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) provided two technical assistance (TA) missions in 2021 on macroprudential policy. This TA report is about the first mission, which evaluated the overall macroprudential policy framework in Panama, covering (1) the institutional arrangements; (2) the framework to assess systemic risks to prepare for policy actions; and (3) the policy toolkit. The assessment was conducted based on the IMF guidance (IMF, 2014), taking into account the country-specific circumstances in Panama. The TA report summarizes the mission’s findings and recommendations that were discussed with the authorities.
Keywords:
Financial sector stability Financial sector policy and analysis Macroprudential policy Macroprudential policy instruments; SBP plan; policy objective; TA project; policy action; Policy evaluation; SBP's communication; Macroprudential policy; Financial sector stability; Systemic risk; Systemic risk assessment; Commercial banks; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Panama: Technical Assistance Report-Macroprudential Policy Frameworks
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
At the request of the Superintendency of Banks of Panama (SBP), IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) provided two technical assistance (TA) missions in 2021 on macroprudential policy. This TA report is about the first mission, which evaluated the overall macroprudential policy framework in Panama, covering (1) the institutional arrangements; (2) the framework to assess systemic risks to prepare for policy actions; and (3) the policy toolkit. The assessment was conducted based on the IMF guidance (IMF, 2014), taking into account the country-specific circumstances in Panama. The TA report summarizes the mission’s findings and recommendations that were discussed with the authorities.
Cover IMF Working Papers
Uncovering CIP Deviations in Emerging Markets: Distinctions, Determinants and Disconnect
Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
and
Haonan Zhou
We provide a systematic empirical treatment of short-term Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations for a large set of emerging market (EM) currencies. EM CIP deviations have much larger volatilities than most G10 currencies and move in an opposite direction during global risk-off episodes. While off-shore EM CIP deviations are sensitive to changes in FX dealers’ risk-bearing capacities and global risk aversion, on-shore EM CIP deviations are largely unresponsive in segmented FX markets. Moreover, the sensitivity of offshore EM CIP deviations to global risk factors for currencies with segmented FX markets is stronger compared to their counterparts with integrated FX markets. We find weak evidence of country default risk affecting EM CIP deviations after accounting for global factors.
Keywords:
Covered interest parity; Interest rate differentials; Forward foreign exchange market; Financial market arbitrage; Emerging markets; CIP deviation; FX Market development; short-term Covered Interest Parity; country default risk; segmented FX markets; Interest rate parity; Currencies; Currency markets; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Forward exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The 2020-2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe: A Phillips-Curve-Based Dissection
Chikako Baba
,
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Ting Lan
, and
Petia Topalova
In 2021-22, inflation in Europe soared to multidecade highs, consistently exceeding policymakers’ forecasts and surprising with its wide cross-country dispersion. This paper analyzes the key drivers of the inflation surge in Europe and its variation across countries. The analysis highlights significant differences in Phillips curve parameters across Europe’s economies. Inflation is more sensitive to domestic slack and external price pressures in emerging European economies compared to their advanced counterparts, which contributed to a greater passthrough of global commodity price shocks into domestic prices, and, consequently, to larger increases in inflation rates. Across Europe, inflation also appears to have become increasingly backward looking and more sensitive to commodity price shocks since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This finding helps explain why conventional (Phillips curve) inflation models consistently underpredicted the 2021-2022 inflation surge, although it remains too early to conclude there has been a structural break in the inflation process.
Keywords:
inflation; Phillips curve; slack; external price; backward-looking; inflation surge; benchmark Phillips Curve estimation; inflation model; inflation dynamics; inflation development; Energy prices; Food prices; Inflation persistence; COVID-19; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Internationalization of China’s Equity Markets
Juan J. Cortina
,
Mr. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria
,
Mr. Sergio L. Schmukler
, and
Jasmine Xiao
China’s equity markets internationalization process started in the early 2000s but accelerated after 2012, when Chinese firms’ shares listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen gradually became available to international investors. This paper studies the effects of the post-2012 internationalization events by comparing the evolution of equity financing and investment activities for: (i) domestic listed firms relative to firms that already had access to international investors and (ii) domestic listed firms that were directly connected to international markets relative to those that were not. The paper finds large increases in financial and investment activities for domestic listed and for connected firms, with significant aggregate effects. The evidence also suggests the rise in firms’ equity issuances was primarily and initially financed by domestic investors. International investors’ portfolio holdings in Chinese equity markets and ownership in firms increased markedly only once Chinese firms’ locally issued shares became part of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Keywords:
equity financing; equity market liberalization; firm investment; foreign investors; international investors; issuance activity; Stock Connect; portfolio holding; internationalization process; unconnected firm; China's equity markets; Stock markets; Stocks; Foreign corporations; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Market capitalization; Global