Browse

You are looking at 101 - 110 of 23,530 items for

  • Type: Journal Issue x
Clear All Modify Search
Tohid Atashbar
and
Rui Aruhan Shi
This study seeks to construct a basic reinforcement learning-based AI-macroeconomic simulator. We use a deep RL (DRL) approach (DDPG) in an RBC macroeconomic model. We set up two learning scenarios, one of which is deterministic without the technological shock and the other is stochastic. The objective of the deterministic environment is to compare the learning agent's behavior to a deterministic steady-state scenario. We demonstrate that in both deterministic and stochastic scenarios, the agent's choices are close to their optimal value. We also present cases of unstable learning behaviours. This AI-macro model may be enhanced in future research by adding additional variables or sectors to the model or by incorporating different DRL algorithms.
Laurence M. Ball
,
Carlos Carvalho
,
Christopher Evans
, and
Mr. Luca A Ricci
The standard measure of core or underlying inflation is the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices. This paper constructs an alternative measure, the weighted median inflation rate, for 38 advanced and emerging economies using subclass level disaggretion of the CPI over 1990-2021, and compares the properties of this measure to those of standard core. For quarterly data, we find that the weighted median is less volatile than standard core, more closely related to economic slack, and more closely related to headline inflation over the next year. The weighted median also has a drawback: in most countries, it has a lower average level than headline inflation. We therefore also consider a measure of core inflation that eliminates this bias, which is based on the percentile of sectoral inflation rates that matches the sample average of headline CPI inflation.
Antonis Kotidis
,
Ms. Margaux MacDonald
, and
Dimitris Malliaropulos
Banks guarantee international trade through letters of credit. This paper analyzes what happens to trade when the critical role of banks as trade guarantors is compromised. Using the case of the Greek capital controls in 2015, the events around which led to a massive loss of confidence in the domestic banking system, we show that firms whose operations were more dependent on domestic banks suffered a steep decline in imports and, subsequently, exports. This operated through letters of credit, which during the capital controls period had to be backed by firms’ own cash collateral rather than the bank guarantee. As a result, cash-poor firms imported relatively less. Public intervention to guarantee transactions is shown to help mitigate some of the decline in imports.
Zo Andriantomanga
,
Marijn A. Bolhuis
, and
Shushanik Hakobyan
The Covid-19 pandemic has led to a large disruption of global supply chains. This paper studies the implications of supply chain disruptions for inflation and monetary policy in sub-Saharan Africa. Increases in supply chain pressures have had a sizeable impact on headline, food, and tradable inflation for a panel of 29 sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2022. Our findings suggest that central banks can stabilize inflation and output more efficiently by monitoring global supply chains and adjusting the monetary policy stance before the disruptions have fully passed through into all inflation components. The gains from monitoring supply chain disruptions are particularly large for open economies which tend to experience outsized second-round effects on the prices of non-tradable goods and services.
Nina Biljanovska
and
Sophia Chen
We explore the differential effects of lender-based macroprudential policies on new mortgage borrowing for households of different income using a comprehensive dataset that links macroprudential policy actions with household survey data for European Union countries. The main results suggest that higher-income households on average experience a larger reduction in mortgage loan size than lower-income households when regulation targeting total lenders’ assets tightens. In contrast, lower-income households on average experience a larger reduction in mortgage loan size than higher-income households when regulation targeting lenders’ capital requirements tightens. We also provide evidence of the different channels through which the differential effects operate.
Natsuki Tsuda
,
Ms. Marianne Bechara
,
Stephanie Forte
,
Kathleen Kao
,
Shuji Kobayakawa
,
Ashley Lannquist
, and
Frankosiligi Solomon
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) analyzed the retail payments markets of Jordan to identify pain points that retail Central Bank Digital Currency (rCBDC) could address. Retail payment systems in Jordan are highly integrated, enabling customers to make interoperable transactions between banks and non-bank Payment Service Providers (PSPs).1 The country’s cross-border remittance market is competitive, but may benefit from the reduced transactions cost associated with rCBDC. Despite generally accessible and appropriate product offerings and an enabling environment, various barriers prevent customers from extensively using digital means of payment. rCBDC might create an opportunity to overcome these barriers, thus making a cross-border rCBDC worth consideration. However, the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) should rigorously evaluate benefits against risks and costs before forging ahead. Meanwhile, the CBJ should develop capacity to address technology, cybersecurity, financial integrity, and legal issues.
International Monetary Fund
This paper aims to address questions by Fund members on how to respond to the rise of crypto assets and the associated risks. To frame the discussion, the paper defines and classifies crypto assets based on their underlying features and describes their purported benefits and potential risks. The paper presents a policy framework for crypto assets that aims to achieve key policy objectives such as macroeconomic stability, financial stability, consumer protection, and market and financial integrity. The framework outlines key elements that are necessary to ensure that these objectives are met. However, such a framework will not fix any underlying crypto design flaws (for instance, the lack of a credible nominal anchor, payments finality, or scalability).
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents the first set of contribution agreements that had been finalized with contributors by the time of the operationalization of the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) on October 12, 2022. The six finalized agreements provide for contributions in a total amount of about SDR 15.3 billion across the three RST accounts – the loan account, deposit account, and reserve account. These six finalized agreements deliver critical resources for the operationalization of the RST and represent an important step towards its adequate funding.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The Inland Revenue Department, St. Kitts and Nevis, benefited from a remote Capacity Development (CD) activity delivered by CARTAC over the period November 2021 – March 2022 on auditing of financial institutions. The main objective of this CD was to strengthen the capacity of the auditors to perform audits and verify the accuracy of reporting by taxpayers in the Financial Sector. The training included (i) an overview of the financial sector, financial products/instruments and business processes; (ii) guidance in auditing the banks and insurance companies; and (iii) awareness of the key tax risks within this sector. A total of 22 auditors from the large, medium and small taxpayers’ unit, participated in the training. The training was held over a fifteen (15) day period and concluded with the auditors developing an audit schedule and preparation of audit notification letters to taxpayers selected for audit.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The fiscal rule that came into force in 2020 has bolstered fiscal discipline and served Costa Rica well. The rule sets ceilings on nominal expenditure growth for current and total expenditures linked to past nominal GDP growth and debt levels. The rule—explicitly identified in the Law 9635—is transparent, relatively simple, and allows flexibility in crises through an escape clause. The rule has been instrumental in the policy framework. It not only guides the fiscal policy in the budget, but also coalesces public opinion on the need for fiscal discipline. Along with other fiscal reforms, the government commitment to the fiscal rule has been instrumental to fiscal adjustment in 2021-22.