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Cover IMF Working Papers
Political Institutions and Output Collapses
Patrick A. Imam
and
Jonathan R. W. Temple
Major output collapses are costly and frequent in the developing world. Using cross-country data, we classify five-year periods using a two-dimensional state space based on growth regimes and political institutions. We then model the joint evolution of output growth and political institutions as a finite state Markov chain, and study how countries move between states. We find that growth is more likely to be sustained under democracy than under autocracy; output collapses are more persistent under autocracy; and stagnation under autocracy can give way to outright collapse. Democratic countries appear to be more resilient.
Keywords:
Economic growth; autocracy; democracy
Cover Legal Materials
Legal Materials

New updates to the Legal Materials Essential Reading Guide! Curated research and information on Fintech law, taxation, governance and anti-corruption. 
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nigeria: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nigeria
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Economic recovery continued to broaden in 2022. Higher oil prices are yet to deliver tangible benefits amid contraction of oil production and costly fuel subsidies. Elevated inflation and lingering external sector pressures, if left unaddressed, may exacerbate macroeconomic instability. This could impact growth, food security and ultimately social cohesion given extreme inequality and high poverty. The upcoming elections provide an opportunity for the new administration to advance structural reforms and offer a more prosperous future.
Keywords:
month-on-month CPI inflation; inflation risk; branch offices; staff appraisal; analytical balance balance sheet; Energy subsidies; Inflation; Global; West Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
climate change prospects in the Kyrgyz Republic; poverty in the Kyrgyz republic; developments in poverty; inclusion indicator; climate change policy; SSNS poverty mitigation effect; poverty rates in the Kyrgyz Republic; Climate change; Social assistance spending; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate policy; Global; Central Asia; Middle East and Central Asia; Central and Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Kyrgyz Republic is facing significant policy challenges stemming from multiple shocks: the anticipated spillovers from the projected contraction in Russia; the global slowdown; global financial tightening; and still-high food and energy prices. Strong output growth in 2022 was a positive surprise, but elevated inflation remains persistent, the current account and fiscal deficits have widened, international reserves have declined, and poverty has increased. In view of heightened uncertainty, policy buffers that were eroded in addressing the pandemic need to be rebuilt.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Central Bank Transparency Code Review
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Bank of Uganda (BOU) is implementing transparency practices that are broadly aligned with the good practices for central banks. The BOU’s initiatives on a comprehensive communication strategy and broad use of tools underpin the commitment to transparency and its accountability for the price stability mandate. The BOU seeks to improve public accountability and intends to use the results of the CBTC review to further improve its communications and transparency practices.
Keywords:
BOU website; BOU communications policy; transparency practice; BOU endeavor; BOU transparency; BOU department; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Financial sector stability; Revenue administration transparency and accountability; Macroprudential policy; International reserves; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nigeria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
EIU FOOD INSECURITY index; World wheat price inflation; tax revenue mobilization; food supply; fuel subsidy reform; food price inflation; Mobile banking; Financial inclusion; Food security; Excises; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Congo: Second Review under the Three-year Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for Modification and Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Congo
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Strengthened economic recovery remains fragile amid high food inflation, driven by increased import costs following Russia’s war in Ukraine. High global oil prices are benefitting the Congo’s crude oil exports but higher refined fuel import costs were subsidized by the government, widening the 2022 non-oil fiscal deficit. Sustained reform efforts are needed for economic diversification, which would reduce Congo’s fragilities, create jobs, and raise incomes. Debt remains sustainable but classified as “in distress” due to arrears; a financing assurances review was conducted. The first review of the three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement (SDR 324 million, 200 percent of quota) was concluded by the IMF Executive Board on June 24, 2022.
Keywords:
IMF TA; PC table; quantitative Performance Criteria; overburdened staff; reorganization of the CCA; Arrears; Fiscal stance; Oil, gas and mining taxes; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guinea-Bissau: Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Guinea-Bissau is a fragile state with significant development challenges, including limited fiscal space, debt vulnerabilities and poor governance. After years of political turmoil and delayed reforms, in 2021 the authorities started the implementation of an ambitious fiscal consolidation program to ensure debt sustainability while creating fiscal space to address developmental needs. A Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) disbursement of SDR 14.2 million (50 percent of quota) was approved in January 2021 to provide urgent financing to support critical spending in health. A nine-month SMP with three quarterly reviews, approved in July 2021 ended with satisfactory performance building track record of policy implementation towards an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. The August 2021 SDR 27.2 million allocation and the reforms underpinned by the SMP have helped address the adverse impact of the pandemic, while improving the transparency of government spending, and mitigating debt vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
reform priority; tax penalty regime; Bissau-Guinean authorities; ECF arrangement; Guinea-Bissau authorities; Debt sustainability analysis; Fiscal consolidation; Auditing; Global; West Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Congo: Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2022-2026 NDP is based on the tradition of development planning in the Congo and on the President of the Republic's social project, "Together, let us continue the march". This project reflects a vision of the process of building a society that ensures social progress for all, in solidarity and peace, through the creation of conditions for inclusive growth, based on a strong economy.
Keywords:
poverty rate; NDP financing plan; NDP scenario; NDP project; NDP objective; Infrastructure; Global; Central Africa; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa