International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The Chinese economy continues its fast recovery from the health and economic crisis as a strong containment effort and macroeconomic and financial policy support have mitigated the crisis impact and helped the economy rebound. However, growth is still unbalanced as the recovery has relied heavily on public support while private consumption is lagging. Rising financial vulnerabilities and the increasingly challenging external environment pose risks to the outlook. Important reforms have progressed despite the crisis, but unevenly across key areas.
The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.
Sub-Saharan Africa is struggling to navigate an unprecedented health and economic crisis—one that, in just a few months, has jeopardized decades of hard-won development gains and upended the lives and livelihoods of millions.
The economic recovery in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to continue, but at a slower pace than envisaged in October 2018. This weaker outlook reflects domestic and external challenges. On the external side, the global expansion is losing momentum, including in China and the euro area, trade tensions remain elevated, global financial conditions have tightened, and commodity prices are expected to remain low. On the domestic front, security challenges, climate shocks, and policy uncertainty are hampering investment and weighing on economic prospects in several countries. Under current policies, medium-term average growth for the region is expected to continue to fall well short of what is needed to absorb the new entrants to the labor force and to deliver limited gains in living standards.
The macroeconomic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa
continues to strengthen with higher growth, easing inflation, and stabilizing public debt ratios
with some countries improving their fiscal balances. But there are concerns on the quality of the
fiscal adjustment and underlying vulnerabilities have yet to be decisively addressed.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
China is at an historic juncture. After decades of high-speed growth, the authorities are now focusing on high-quality growth. Whether and how this shift is carried through will determine China’s development path for decades to come. Recent strong growth momentum and significant financial de-risking progress reduce the probability of a near-term abrupt adjustment. Rebalancing accelerated in some dimensions, especially as the current account surplus continued to fall and growth became less dependent on credit, but progress slowed in many other dimensions as exports drove the growth pick up, rather than consumption. And while credit growth has slowed, it remains excessive.
In this paper, we argue that there is much room for China to strengthen its regulatory
framework for public-private partnerships (PPPs). We show that infrastructure projects carried
out through local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) were largely unregulated PPPs, and
significant fiscal risks have already manifested themselves. While PPPs can potentially provide
efficiency gains, they can also be used by governments to circumvent budgetary borrowing
constraints. Therefore, effective PPP regulation is key to delivering PPPs’ benefits while
containing their potential fiscal risks. The authorities have taken concrete steps in order to
establish a sound regulatory framework and foster a new generation of PPPs. However, to
make the framework effective, we highlight a few issues to be resolved. Based on international
best practice, we propose a four-pillar regulatory framework for China, which could be
implemented gradually in three stages.
The past year has been a time of unexpected challenges for the international community, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde says in her foreword to the institution’s Annual Report 2015—Tackling Challenges Together, published today. Amid the continued focus on spurring stronger and more inclusive growth and strengthening global cooperation, the IMF faced economic developments that required rapid adjustments. Highlights of the IMF’s work during the year included insight into the international impact of falling oil prices, financing and policy advice for countries in difficulties, emergency funding to combat the Ebola crisis in West Africa, a new relief fund for the poor and most vulnerable countries hit by natural or public health disasters, research on fiscal policy to reduce inequality, free online training for the public and government officials, and online statistical data free of charge for all users. The report covers the work of the IMF’s Executive Board and contains financial statements for the year May 1, 2014, to April 30, 2015. It describes the IMF’s support for its 188 member countries, with an emphasis on the core areas of IMF responsibility: assessing their economic and financial policies, providing financing where needed, and building capacity in key areas of economic policy.