The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.
Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded.
Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the
trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential
for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.
United Nations, European Commission, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, International Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, and World Bank
Comparable and reliable data supporting coherent analytical and policy frameworks are essential elements to inform debates and guide policy related to the interrelationships between the economy and the environment.
"The System of Environmental-Economic Accounting 2012—Central Framework" (SEEA Central Framework) is a statistical framework consisting of a comprehensive set of tables and accounts, which guides the compilation of consistent and comparable statistics and indicators for policymaking, analysis and research. It has been produced and is released under the auspices of the United Nations, the European Commission, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank Group.
The SEEA-Central Framework reflects the evolving needs of its users, new developments in environmental economic accounting and advances in methodological research.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
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Mr. Niko A Hobdari, Ms. Chonira E Aturupane, Mr. Eric Le Borgne, Mr. Koba Gvenetadze, Mr. John Wakeman-Linn, and Mr. Stephan Danninger
Oil and gas production in Azerbaijan were projected to increase sharply in 2005 and 2006, respectively, reaching peaks of 1.3 million barrels a day in 2009 and 20 billion cubic meters a year in 2010. Although expected revenues over the next 20 years will be substantial, they are projected to return to 2004 levels by 2024. Managing this temporary windfall in a way that allows for economic diversification and increased living standards is the subject of this book, which provides extensive guidance based largely on lessons drawn from the experiences--mostly negative--of other countries.