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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Context and risks. The pandemic may have a long-lasting impact on CEMAC’s growth potential, which is already curtailed by structural, governance, and transparency issues. The policy response from national and regional authorities in 2020 helped mitigate the economic fallout. CEMAC, however, experienced a severe recession in 2020, fiscal and external deficits increased, and public debt rose with some countries having debt sustainability issues. The region is facing an increasing dilemma between internal and external stability, as external reserves fell sharply between mid-2020 and March 2021. A moderate recovery in economic growth is expected from 2021. Supported by lower than previously projected total external financing of €4.8 billion over 2021–23, international reserves build-up would be slower than pre-pandemic. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and the vaccination program. Other significant risks include delayed implementation of the ongoing or possible new Fund-supported programs, uncertainties in filling large external financing needs, oil prices, and a possible deterioration in the security situation.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Since the approval of the first Rapid Credit Facility (RCF-1) request on May 4, 2020 (IMF Country Report No 20/185), weaker external demand in major trading partners (China and Europe) and a more pronounced impact of containment measures to slow the rising number of COVID-19 cases, have further deteriorated growth prospects and worsened Cameroon’s external and fiscal positions. Given limited fiscal buffers and urgent balance of payments needs due to the pandemic, the authorities allowed the current ECF arrangement expire at end-September, reiterated their interest on a successor arrangement, and in the meantime requested financial assistance under the “exogenous shocks window” of the RCF equivalent to 40 percent of quota (SDR 110.4 million). This additional request will bring the total disbursement under the RCF to 100 percent of quota in 2020.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper focuses on Cameroon’s Requests for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF), Extension of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, and Rephasing of Access. The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and the terms of trade shocks from the sharp fall in oil prices are having a significant impact on Cameroon’s economy, leading to a historic fall of real gross domestic product growth. The authorities are taking decisive actions to limit the spread of the virus and its economic and social impact. They have implemented strong crisis containment and mitigation measures and are scaling up spending to bolster their health response. Additional measures currently under consideration will provide support to vulnerable households and firms. IMF emergency financing under the RCF will support the government’s efforts to mitigate the impact of the twin shocks. Additional assistance from development partners will be critical to fill the remaining financing need. Strict budgetary controls and transparency will be needed to ensure that the assistance under the RCF meets its intended objectives.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is set to have long-lasting effects on the economic outlook for CEMAC. The pandemic itself seems to be now broadly under control in the region, and the policy response from national and regional authorities, supported by significant emergency financing by the Fund, helped mitigate the initial economic fallout. With lower medium-term oil prices, the outlook projects that CEMAC’s fiscal and external adjustments will be slower than previously envisaged, entailing large external financing needs (around €6.6 billion for 2021–23). Gross international reserves will now reach the equivalent of 5 months of imports by 2025 vs. 2022 pre-pandemic, while net foreign assets (NFA) will be below previous expectations. Public debt would remain at elevated levels, albeit on a declining trend after the increase in 2020. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on oil prices. Other significant risks include: delayed implementation of the ongoing or a second phase of new Fund-supported programs, difficulties in filling large external financing needs, and a deterioration in the security situation.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This paper evaluates the IMF’s policy on the use of quantitative limits on public debt in IMF-supported programs (the “debt limits policy”) and proposes a number of modifications. The review is taking place at a time when many countries are experiencing heightened debt vulnerabilities or actual debt distress, aggravated by the COVID-19 shock, and occurring against the backdrop of a changing credit landscape in which concessional finance is scarcer relative to countries’ investment needs.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Tighter macroeconomic and financial policies helped to avert a deeper crisis, and gross external reserves increased more rapidly in recent months, largely exceeding the mid-2019 target. However, reserves are still below the level appropriate for commodityexporting economies (5 months of imports) to absorb terms of trade shocks. Fiscal consolidation has been tilted towards cuts in public investment. This, together with a lack of significant progress in structural reforms, has weighed on growth which remains too low. The outlook for 2019 and beyond foresees further improvement in regional reserves assuming CEMAC countries remain committed to their program objectives and new programs with CAR and Equatorial Guinea could start around end-2019. This outlook is subject to potentially significant risks, including: a significant slowdown in global growth and associated decline in oil prices; a deterioration in the security situation in some countries; and weaker implementation of IMF-supported programs.
Ms. Dalia S Hakura, Mr. Adrian Alter, Matteo Ghilardi, Mr. Rodolfo Maino, Mr. Cameron McLoughlin, and Mr. Maximilien Queyranne
La situation d'endettement de la république du Congo s'est considérablement améliorée depuis 2010, grâce à l'allégement de la dette obtenu dans le cadre de l’initiative en faveur des pays pauvres très endettés et de l’initiative d’allégement de la dette multilatérale engagées par le FMI et la Banque mondiale. D'importantes recettes pétrolières ont permis au pays d'accroître ses dépenses et ses réserves de change. Cependant, la pauvreté et l’inégalité restent comparativement élevées. Ce document examine les défis que doit relever le Congo pour gérer les recettes qu’il tire des ressources naturelles et assurer une croissance soutenue et inclusive.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
En 2013, la croissance régionale a marqué le pas en raison d’une baisse de la production pétrolière dans la plupart des pays. La croissance du PIB devrait reprendre en 2014 grâce à la reprise de la production pétrolière et à la poursuite de la mise en œuvre des projets d’investissement public de la plupart des pays de la CEMAC. Même si la richesse pétrolière a été largement dépensée ces dernières années, la pauvreté, l’inégalité des revenus et le chômage restent élevés. Le climat des affaires reste l’un des plus difficiles d’Afrique. Le défi le plus urgent de la région consiste à mettre en œuvre des réformes structurelles en vue de promouvoir une croissance durable et inclusive tout en adoptant des politiques macroéconomiques destinées à préserver la stabilité financière, assurer une utilisation efficace des recettes pétrolières et accroître la résilience aux chocs.
Ms. Sharmini Coorey and Mr. Bernardin Akitoby

Abstract

En dépit de ses vastes richesses pétrolières, l'Afrique centrale se débat encore pour promouvoir une croissance robuste et solidaire, ou pour offrir suffisamment de perspectives d'emploi à sa population, en particulier aux jeunes. S'appuyant sur de nouveaux travaux, cet ouvrage explique les défis macroéconomiques que doit relever la région, examine la gestion de la richesse pétrolière et ses répercussions pour la réduction de la pauvreté et présente quatre études de cas représentatives des enseignements qui ont été tirés.

International Monetary Fund
Depuis plusieurs années, le FMI publie un nombre croissant de rapports et autres documents couvrant l'évolution et les tendances économiques et financières dans les pays membres. Chaque rapport, rédigé par une équipe des services du FMI à la suite d'entretiens avec des représentants des autorités, est publié avec l'accord du pays concerné.