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International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound--the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial. Effective policies are essential to forestall the possibility of worse outcomes, and the necessary measures to reduce contagion and protect lives are an important investment in long-term human and economic health. Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically. And internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channeling aid to countries with weak health care systems.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

After strong growth in 2017 and early 2018, global economic activity slowed notably in the second half of last year, reflecting a confluence of factors affecting major economies. China’s growth declined following a combination of needed regulatory tightening to rein in shadow banking and an increase in trade tensions with the United States. The euro area economy lost more momentum than expected as consumer and business confidence weakened and car production in Germany was disrupted by the introduction of new emission standards; investment dropped in Italy as sovereign spreads widened; and external demand, especially from emerging Asia, softened. Elsewhere, natural disasters hurt activity in Japan. Trade tensions increasingly took a toll on business confidence and, so, financial market sentiment worsened, with financial conditions tightening for vulnerable emerging markets in the spring of 2018 and then in advanced economies later in the year, weighing on global demand. Conditions have eased in 2019 as the US Federal Reserve signaled a more accommodative monetary policy stance and markets became more optimistic about a US–China trade deal, but they remain slightly more restrictive than in the fall.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The upswing in global investment and trade continued in the second half of 2017. At 3.8 percent, global growth in 2017 was the fastest since 2011. With financial conditions still supportive, global growth is expected to tick up to a 3.9 percent rate in both 2018 and 2019. Advanced economies will grow faster than potential this year and next; euro area economies are set to narrow excess capacity with support from accommodative monetary policy, and expansionary fiscal policy will drive the US economy above full employment. Aggregate growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to firm further, with continued strong growth in emerging Asia and Europe and a modest upswing in commodity exporters after three years of weak performance. Global growth, however, is projected to soften beyond the next couple of years, with most advanced economies likely returning to potential growth rates well below precrisis averages. Growth is projected to remain subpar in several emerging market and developing economies, including in some commodity exporters that continue to face substantial fiscal consolidation needs. Beyond the next few quarters risks clearly lean to the downside. The current recovery offers a window of opportunity to advance policies and reforms that secure the current upswing and raise medium-term growth to the benefit of all.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening. Global growth, which in 2016 was the weakest since the global financial crisis at 3.2 percent, is projected to rise to 3.6 percent in 2017 and to 3.7 percent in 2018. The growth forecasts for both 2017 and 2018 are 0.1 percentage point stronger compared with projections earlier this year. Broad-based upward revisions in the euro area, Japan, emerging Asia, emerging Europe, and Russia—where growth outcomes in the first half of 2017 were better than expected—more than offset downward revisions for the United States and the United Kingdom. But the recovery is not complete: while the baseline outlook is strengthening, growth remains weak in many countries, and inflation is below target in most advanced economies. Commodity exporters, especially of fuel, are particularly hard hit as their adjustment to a sharp step down in foreign earnings continues. And while short-term risks are broadly balanced, medium-term risks are still tilted to the downside. The welcome cyclical pickup in global activity thus provides an ideal window of opportunity to tackle the key policy challenges—namely to boost potential output while ensuring its benefits are broadly shared, and to build resilience against downside risks. A renewed multilateral effort is also needed to tackle the common challenges of an integrated global economy.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

La actividad económica mundial está repuntando y, por su parte, la inversión, la manufactura y el comercio internacional están experimentando una recuperación cíclica largamente esperada, según el capítulo del informe WEO. Se prevé que el crecimiento mundial aumentará de 3,1% en 2016 a 3,5% en 2017 y 3,6% en 2018. El fortalecimiento de la actividad, las expectativas de robustecimiento de la demanda mundial, las menores presiones deflacionarias y el optimismo en los mercados financieros son hechos positivos. Pero los factores estructurales que impiden una recuperación más vigorosa y la persistente inclinación a la baja de la balanza de riesgos, sobre todo a mediano plazo, siguen siendo problemas de importancia. En el capítulo 2 se examina cómo los cambios en las condiciones externas pueden afectar el ritmo de convergencia del ingreso entre las economías avanzadas y las de mercados emergentes y en desarrollo. En el capítulo 3 se estudia la cada vez menor participación del trabajo en la renta, incluidas las causas fundamentales del fenómeno y su incidencia en la desigualdad. En términos generales, este informe destaca la necesidad de contar con estrategias creíbles en las economías avanzadas y las de mercados emergentes y en desarrollo para hacer frente a desafíos comunes en una economía mundial integrada.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

En la edición de octubre de 2016 de Perspectivas de la economía mundial (informe WEO) se proyecta que el crecimiento mundial disminuirá a 3,1% en 2016 y que repuntará a 3,4% en 2017. El pronóstico, que representa una revisión a la baja de 0,1 puntos porcentuales para 2016 y 2017 frente a las estimaciones de abril, refleja una moderación de las perspectivas de las economías avanzadas tras la votación de junio en la que el Reino Unido decidió abandonar la Unión Europea —un hecho al que comúnmente se hace referencia con el término “brexit”— y un crecimiento más débil de lo previsto en Estados Unidos. Estos factores han agudizado la presión a la baja sobre las tasas de interés mundiales, y en este momento se prevé que la política monetaria mantenga una orientación acomodaticia durante más tiempo. Aunque tranquiliza observar que la reacción de los mercados ante el shock del brexit fue ordenada, el impacto que en última instancia este tendrá no está nada claro, ya que el destino de los acuerdos institucionales y comerciales entre el Reino Unido y la Unión Europea es incierto. El sentimiento de los mercados financieros con respecto a las economías de mercados emergentes ha mejorado debido a las expectativas de una disminución de las tasas de interés en las economías avanzadas; la inquietud en torno a las perspectivas de China a corto plazo se ha aliviado, gracias a la adopción de políticas que están apuntalando el crecimiento; y los precios de las materias primas en cierta medida se han afianzado. Ahora bien, las perspectivas difieren drásticamente según el país y la región: las economías emergentes de Asia en general, e India en particular, registran un crecimiento vigoroso, en tanto que África subsahariana está sufriendo una fuerte desaceleración. En las economías avanzadas, el hecho de que las perspectivas sean de por sí moderadas y estén rodeadas de una considerable incertidumbre y de riesgos a la baja puede hacer que recrudezca el descontento político y que las plataformas de políticas contrarias a la integración logren afianzarse en mayor medida. Obligadas a adaptarse a la caída de precios de las materias primas, varias economías emergentes y en desarrollo siguen enfrentadas a enormes retos en términos de política económica. Estas preocupantes perspectivas hacen que sea más urgente que nunca aplicar una política de respuesta amplia que logre estimular el crecimiento y manejar las vulnerabilidades.