International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Korea’s growth momentum that had been building since early 2013 has stalled. Average quarterly growth rate declined to about 0.5 percent in the last three quarters of 2014 from about 1 percent in the previous four quarters. A turning point was the April 2014 Sewol ferry accident, which had a surprisingly large and persistent impact on consumer and investor sentiment. Growth is projected to be in a range centered about 3 percent in 2015. The main external risks include slower-than-expected growth in Korea’s main trading partners, the impact of a persistently weak yen on Korean export industries, and side-effects from the global financial conditions.
Vanuatu has maintained macroeconomic stability, but real GDP growth slowed despite the receipt of considerable foreign assistance and the implementation of structural reforms under the Comprehensive Reform Program (CRP). A sharp increase in liquidity, a consequent bulge in consumption, and a rise in imports have affected Vanuatu's recent economic performance. Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index for the main urban centers, has remained moderate in recent years. The paper also discusses prices and population, financial sector, and external sector developments of Vanuatu.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the sources of Mexico’s economic growth since the 1960s, and compares various decompositions of historical growth into trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflation process is assessed. The paper presents medium-term paths for GDP based on alternative productivity growth rates. The paper also describes the significant steps Mexico has taken to strengthen the structure of its public debt in recent years, both in terms of currency composition and maturity.
This paper reviews the Maldives’s Use of IMF Resources and Request for Emergency Assistance. The authorities have requested a purchase of an amount equivalent to SDR 4.1 million (50 percent of quota) under the IMF’s policy on emergency assistance related to natural disasters. The authorities have requested the provision of subsidies to reduce the rate of charge on these resources. IMF staff supports these requests given the exceptional severity of the tsunami’s economic impact and the authorities’ record of sound macroeconomic management and good cooperation with the IMF.
This paper describes economic developments in Tonga during the 1990s. From 1993 to 1996, financial policies were quite expansionary. Following the licensing of two new banks, credit growth accelerated in 1994. The National Reserve Bank of Tonga initially adopted an accommodating stance, but in December 1995, tightened monetary policy significantly. Hampered by its poor profitability in the use of indirect monetary instruments, it relied on an increase in reserve requirements. Meanwhile, fiscal policy had added further to demand pressures with the recurrent budget surplus declining, owing to a cost-of-living adjustment to government wages.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes Pakistan's tax reform and revenue performance. The paper assesses the nature and magnitude of Pakistan's actual twin debt problem in a historical context, and reviews the policy options. The study highlights the factors explaining the recent stagnation in merchandise exports, and analyzes the country's export performance with regard to the linkages between performance and the structure of exports. The paper reviews a survey of poverty in Pakistan, and also provides a statistical appendix report of the country.
This Selected Issues paper examines economic developments in Chile during 1995–97. Average output growth exceeded 7 percent in 1995–97 and twelve-month inflation fell from 9 percent at end-1994 to 6 percent at end-1997. Economic management during this period was complicated by a sharp swing in export prices, and—up to the last quarter of 1997—strong and rising capital inflows. After a surge in 1995, the price of copper declined by more than 20 percent in 1996, recovered in early 1997, and fell sharply later in the year.