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Cover IMF Working Papers
Quantum Computing and the Financial System: Spooky Action at a Distance?
Mr. Michael Gorbanyov, Majid Malaika, and Tahsin Saadi Sedik
The era of quantum computing is about to begin, with profound implications for the global economy and the financial system. Rapid development of quantum computing brings both benefits and risks. Quantum computers can revolutionize industries and fields that require significant computing power, including modeling financial markets, designing new effective medicines and vaccines, and empowering artificial intelligence, as well as creating a new and secure way of communication (quantum Internet). But they would also crack many of the current encryption algorithms and threaten financial stability by compromising the security of mobile banking, e-commerce, fintech, digital currencies, and Internet information exchange. While the work on quantum-safe encryption is still in progress, financial institutions should take steps now to prepare for the cryptographic transition, by assessing future and retroactive risks from quantum computers, taking an inventory of their cryptographic algorithms (especially public keys), and building cryptographic agility to improve the overall cybersecurity resilience.
Keywords:
quantum computing; quantum-safe encryption; cybersecurity; fintech.; fintech; functioning quantum computer; computing technology; quantum machine; encryption standard; hardware capability; cloud service; Computer science; Migration; Financial sector; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Cyber Risk, Market Failures, and Financial Stability
Emanuel Kopp, Lincoln Kaffenberger, and Christopher Wilson
Cyber-attacks on financial institutions and financial market infrastructures are becoming more common and more sophisticated. Risk awareness has been increasing, firms actively manage cyber risk and invest in cybersecurity, and to some extent transfer and pool their risks through cyber liability insurance policies. This paper considers the properties of cyber risk, discusses why the private market can fail to provide the socially optimal level of cybersecurity, and explore how systemic cyber risk interacts with other financial stability risks. Furthermore, this study examines the current regulatory frameworks and supervisory approaches, and identifies information asymmetries and other inefficiencies that hamper the detection and management of systemic cyber risk. The paper concludes discussing policy measures that can increase the resilience of the financial system to systemic cyber risk.
Keywords:
WP; financial system; economic risk; preferred risk profile; business model; firms visibility; Cyber risk; systemic risk; cyber insurance; cyber regulation; risk management; information asymmetries; market failure; financial services firm; liability insurance; firms' customer; market risk shock; cybersecurity provider; risk assessment; data loss; cybersecurity risk; customer notification; breach customer security; Operational risk; Insurance; Financial sector; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fintech and Financial Inclusion in Latin America and the Caribbean
Mr. Dmitry Gershenson, Frederic Lambert, Luis Herrera, Grey Ramos, Mrs. Marina V Rousset, and Mr. Jose L. Torres
Despite some improvement since 2011, Latin America and the Caribbean continue to lag behind other regions in terms of financial inclusion. There is no clear evidence that fintech developments have supported greater financial inclusion in LAC, contrary to what has been observed elsewhere in the world. Case studies by national policy experts suggest that barriers to entry in the financial sector, along with a constraining regulatory environment, may have hindered a faster adoption of fintech. However, fintech development seems to have accelerated in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and with the support of recent policy initiatives.
Keywords:
fintech development; policy initiative; financial product; cash transfer program; ACH Colombia; electronic cash; per capita income; credit card payment; Financial inclusion; Fintech; Financial sector; Caribbean; Middle East and Central Asia; Central America; South America; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Cyber Risk for the Financial Sector: A Framework for Quantitative Assessment
Antoine Bouveret
Cyber risk has emerged as a key threat to financial stability, following recent attacks on financial institutions. This paper presents a novel documentation of cyber risk around the world for financial institutions by analyzing the different types of cyber incidents (data breaches, fraud and business disruption) and identifying patterns using a variety of datasets. The other novel contribution that is outlined is a quantitative framework to assess cyber risk for the financial sector. The framework draws on a standard VaR type framework used to assess various types of stability risk and can be easily applied at the individual country level. The framework is applied in this paper to the available cross-country data and yields illustrative aggregated losses for the financial sector in the sample across a variety of scenarios ranging from 10 to 30 percent of net income.
Keywords:
WP; cyber attack; central bank; Cyber risk; systemic risk; operational risk; risk management; data breach; loss data; Poisson distribution; business operation; aggregate loss; Financial sector; Global