This paper develops a new forecasting framework for GDP growth in Korea to complement and further enhance existing forecasting approaches. First, a range of forecast models, including indicator- and pure time-series models, are evaluated for their forecasting performance. Based on the evaluation results, a new forecasting framework is developed for GDP projections. The framework also generates a data-driven reference band for the projections, and is therefore convenient to update. The framework is applied to the current World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast period and the Great Recession to compare its performance to past projections. Results show that the performance of the new framework often improves the forecasts, especially at quarterly frequency, and the forecasting exercise will be better informed by cross-checking with the new data-driven framework projections.
The revised Bank of Korea Act states that the primary goal of monetary policy is price stability, suggesting that monetary policy will move toward an inflation-targeting framework. The paper explores some of the practical aspects of this move, including such issues as the predictability of inflation, the definition of the price index, the inflation target’s time horizon, and the width of the inflation-target bands. On balance, the empirical evidence suggests that Korea is likely to be successful in adopting an inflation-targeting framework over the medium term.