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Amr Hosny and Kevin Pallara
This paper argues that the type of COVID-19 containment measures affects the trade-offs between infection cases, economic activity and sovereign risk. Using local projection methods and a year and a half of high-frequency daily data covering 44 advanced and emerging economies, we find that smart (e.g. testing) as opposed to physical (e.g. lockdown) measures appear to be best placed to tackle these trade-offs. Initial conditions also matter whereby containment measures can be less disruptive when public health response time is fast and public debt is low. We also construct a database of daily fiscal announcements for Euro area countries, and find that sovereign risk is improved under a combination of large support packages and smart measures.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively impacted Tanzania’s macroeconomic outlook, and negatively impacted its population’s health and well-being. Tourism collapsed in the wake of travel restrictions, the economy reportedly decelerated to 4.8 percent growth in 2020, and growth is expected to remain subdued in 2021. The previous government downplayed the presence of the COVID-19 virus in Tanzania and the impact of the pandemic in the country, and budgeted insufficient resources to address the health and economic crisis. This has left the new administration of President Hassan with an enormous and urgent challenge to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. The new administration is implementing comprehensive plans to immediately address the pandemic, resulting in an urgent balance of payments need.