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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Context, Outlook, and Risks. GDP growth is expected to average 4 percent per annum over 2023–24 on lower international commodity prices, vigorous diaspora flows, and sound macroeconomic policies. Average inflation is projected to decline to about 5 percent in 2023 and 3½ percent in 2024. Risks to growth are balanced on the short-term, but on the downside in the medium-term, given the complex geopolitical scenario.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2021 Article IV Consultation determines that Kosovo’s people and its economy experienced a return to a certain degree of normality in 2021. Increased vaccination rates allowed a relaxation of stringency measures, supported mobility, and created the conditions for a resumption of diaspora travel. The fiscal response to the pandemic has been broadly adequate. Moreover, fiscal policy needs to return to a supportive stance in 2022. Focus, composition, and transparency of public spending needs strengthening including supporting economic resilience. While the objective to intensify vaccinations is both appropriate and commendable, intended policy actions under the “Economic Revival Program” need to be better defined, new social transfer programs should be more targeted, and the growth of existing transfers needs to be contained. Kosovo’s intentions to reduce carbon emissions are commendable. A credible climate and environment mitigation strategy should be centered around carbon pricing, while allocating its proceeds to investment in green projects and to mitigate the impact of higher energy prices on vulnerable households.