Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

  • English (1)

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Browse

You are looking at 1 - 1 of 1 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Guinea-Bissau x
  • IMF Staff Country Reports x
  • Finance and accounting x
  • Banks and Banking x
  • Financial services x
  • Computer applications in industry & technology x
  • Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems x
  • External sector x
  • International Economics x
  • Banks and banking x
  • Refine By Language: English x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guinea-Bissau: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper aims at identifying some of the main channels of transmission through which political instability feeds and foster fragility and provide an estimate of the “fragility gap” that haunts the Bissau-Guinean society. This paper argued that, until today, due to chronic political instability, Guinea-Bissau has been in a costly fragility trap. This analytical piece argues that the major factor behind Guinea-Bissau’s fragility has been the chronic political instability. It also uncovers some of the main transmission channels from political instability to fragility and provides simple estimates about the cost of instability. Estimates based on reasonable assumptions reveal that, considering only Guinea-Bissau’s post-war period, without chronic political instability real GDP per capita could have been at least two thirds higher than its 2013 level. This assessment shows the crucial importance of the security sector reform. It also shows that the current estimated cost of the security sector reform is modest in comparison, since it puts into perspective its monetary costs—which are easy to calculate and mostly frontloaded—vis-à-vis its wide and deep benefits, which are not as explicit and accrue over time.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Guinea-Bissau; GDP; dynamics well; export diversification; GDP growth; growth effect; transition government; post-war period; Mobile banking; Exports; Commercial banks; Current account deficits; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa