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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) took place against the backdrop of an ongoing recovery of the financial system. Since the global financial crisis (GFC), financial regulation has been substantially enhanced by the implementation of euro area-wide (EA-wide) regulatory and supervisory frameworks. Furthermore, the Italian authorities have implemented important measures that improved governance, facilitated capitalization, raised prudential requirements, and improved asset quality. In response, Italian banks have made substantial progress tackling legacy non-performing loans (NPLs) and improving solvency ratios.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The FSSR mission team conducted a diagnostic review of CBK governance and of the financial system, undertook a stocktaking of the implementation of recommendations from the 2012 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) and MCM TA, and proposed a TA Roadmap to support the efforts of the authorities to address key gaps and vulnerabilities. The IMF Statistics Department (STA) supported the mission with an assessment of the compilation of financial soundness indicators (FSIs), monetary and financial statistics, and balance sheet matrices (Annex I).
Yener Altunbas, Michiel van Leuvensteijn, and Tianshu Zhao
We examine how bank competition in the run-up to the 2007–2009 crisis affects banks’ systemic risk during the crisis. We then investigate whether this effect is influenced by two key bank characteristics: securitization and bank capital. Using a sample of the largest listed banks from 15 countries, we find that greater market power at the bank level and higher competition at the industry level lead to higher realized systemic risk. The results suggest that the use of securitization exacerbates the effects of market power on the systemic dimension of bank risk, while capitalization partially mitigates its impact.
Ms. Wenjie Chen, Mr. Mico Mrkaic, and Mr. Malhar S Nabar
This paper takes stock of the global economic recovery a decade after the 2008 financial crisis. Output losses after the crisis appear to be persistent, irrespective of whether a country suffered a banking crisis in 2007–08. Sluggish investment was a key channel through which these losses registered, accompanied by long-lasting capital and total factor productivity shortfalls relative to precrisis trends. Policy choices preceding the crisis and in its immediate aftermath influenced postcrisis variation in output. Underscoring the importance of macroprudential policies and effective supervision, countries with greater financial vulnerabilities in the precrisis years suffered larger output losses after the crisis. Countries with stronger precrisis fiscal positions and those with more flexible exchange rate regimes experienced smaller losses. Unprecedented and exceptional policy actions taken after the crisis helped mitigate countries’ postcrisis output losses.
Ms. TengTeng Xu, Kun Hu, and Mr. Udaibir S Das
We analyze how bank profitability impacts financial stability from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We first develop a theoretical model of the relationship between bank profitability and financial stability by exploring the role of non-interest income and retail-oriented business models. We then conduct panel regression analysis to examine the empirical determinants of bank risks and profitability, and how the level and the source of bank profitability affect risks for 431 publicly traded banks (U.S., advanced Europe, and GSIBs) from 2004 to 2017. Results reveal that profitability is negatively associated with both a bank’s contribution to systemic risk and its idiosyncratic risk, and an over-reliance on non-interest income, wholesale funding and leverage is associated with higher risks. Low competition is associated with low idiosyncratic risk but a high contribution to systemic risk. Lastly, the problem loans ratio and the cost-to-income ratio are found to be key factors that influence bank profitability. The paper’s findings suggest that policy makers should strive to better understand the source of bank profitability, especially where there is an over-reliance on market-based non-interest income, leverage, and wholesale funding.