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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guinea: 2022 Article IV Consultation and Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Following a coup d’état in September 2021 and a year of socio-political tension, the situation has stabilized after the authorities agreed with ECOWAS on a revised, shorter (24-month) transition calendar. While the non-mining sector remains weakened by the subsequent shocks—the pandemic, political uncertainty, the global food and fuel price shock and ensuing food insecurity—overall growth remains buoyant, driven by strong mining production. Inflation hovered around 12 percent for most of 2021 and 2022, despite significant international prices pressures. Food insecurity became increasingly acute during 2022 stemming from the price shock and could be exacerbated next year.
Keywords:
price shock; oil price hike; IMF budget support; money market rate; FX auction; fertilizer price; Mining sector; Inflation; Food security; Global; Africa; West Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Foreign Aid and Consumption Smoothing: Evidence From Global Food Aid
Mr. Erwin H Tiongson, Mr. Benedict J. Clements, and Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
Global food aid is considered a critical consumption smoothing mechanism in many countries. However, its record of stabilizing consumption has been mixed. This paper examines the cyclical properties of food aid with respect to food availability in recipient countries, with a view to assessing its impact on consumption in some 150 developing countries and transition economies, covering 1970 to 2000. The results show that global food aid has been allocated to countries most in need. Food aid has also been countercyclical within countries with the greatest need. However, for most countries, food aid is not countercyclical. The amount of food aid provided is also insufficient to mitigate contemporaneous shortfalls in consumption. The results are robust to various specifications and filtering techniques and have important implications for macroeconomic and fiscal management.
Keywords:
WP; Food aid; foreign aid; counterpart funds; consumption smoothing; food aid flow; program food aid; food aid disbursement; vis-à-vis country; food aid allocation; food aid sale; food aid program; emergency food aid; Food security; Aid flows; Consumption; Food production; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa