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Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance »

Source: Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

Volume/Issue: 2019/36

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ananthakrishnan Prasad , Selim Elekdag , Phakawa Jeasakul , Romain Lafarguette , Adrian Alter , Alan Xiaochen Feng , and Changchun Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2019

ISBN: 9781484397015

Keywords: Interest rates on loans, Economic growth, Economic recovery, External sector, Real interest rates, downside risk;macrofinancial linkages;financial stability;Gar;financial condition;forecast horizon;article IV consultation;quantiles

The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast...

Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance »

Volume/Issue: 2019/36

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ananthakrishnan Prasad , Selim Elekdag , Phakawa Jeasakul , Romain Lafarguette , Adrian Alter , Alan Xiaochen Feng , and Changchun Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484397015.001

ISBN: 9781484397015

Keywords: Interest rates on loans, Economic growth, Economic recovery, External sector, Real interest rates, downside risk;macrofinancial linkages;financial stability;Gar;financial condition;forecast horizon;article IV consultation;quantiles

The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast...