Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Axel Schimmelpfennig , Nouriel Roubini , and Paolo Manasse
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 November 2003
Keywords: Early-warning system, sovereign debt crises, sovereign default, debt crisis, external debt, debt crises, short-term debt, currency crisis, General Outlook and Conditions, Forecasting and Other Model Applications
We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF finan...