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Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems

Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems »

Source: Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems

Volume/Issue: 2003/18

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Chikako Oka

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2003

ISBN: 9781451843668

Keywords: early warning, probability, currency crises, debt service, external debt, debt outstanding, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, International Lending and Debt Problems, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed...

An Application of the "Fan-Chart Approach" to Debt Sustainability in Post-HIPC Low-Income Countries

An Application of the "Fan-Chart Approach" to Debt Sustainability in Post-HIPC Low-Income Countries »

Source: An Application of the "Fan-Chart Approach" to Debt Sustainability in Post-HIPC Low-Income Countries

Volume/Issue: 2014/102

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maximilien Kaffo Melou , Mariusz Sumlinski , and Chris Geiregat

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 June 2014

ISBN: 9781498345033

Keywords: HIPC, MDRI, fan chart, debt sustainablity, debt relief, debt sustainability, debt accumulation, debt dynamics, Deficit, International Lending and Debt Problems

We analyse the debt dynamics in countries that benefited from the HIPC/MDRI debt relief initiatives with a view to applying a probabilistic approach to estimating future debt paths for those countries. We extend t...

Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive?

Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive? »

Source: Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive?

Volume/Issue: 2011/195

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , and Samya Beidas-Strom

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2011

ISBN: 9781462305247

Keywords: Current account determination, macroeconomic balance approach, oil exporters, exporters, reer, exporting countries, terms of trade, International Lending and Debt Problems, International Policy Coordination and Transmission,

Employing a dynamic panel regression, this study estimates the medium-term current account position for three subgroups of emerging market and developing countries with shared economic characteristics. The fundamen...

Arrears to the IMF - A Ghost of the Past?

Arrears to the IMF - A Ghost of the Past? »

Source: Arrears to the IMF - A Ghost of the Past?

Volume/Issue: 2016/225

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anne Oeking , and Mariusz Sumlinski

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2016

ISBN: 9781475554823

Keywords: International Monetary Fund, External debt, Arrears, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, International Lending and Debt Problems

In this paper, we consider incidences of arrears to the IMF, focusing on protracted arrears cases and attempt to identify determinants of their occurrence. We use narrative and formal methods. In addition, we analy...

As You sow so Shall You Reap

As You sow so Shall You Reap »

Source: As You sow so Shall You Reap : Public Investment Surges, Growth, and Debt Sustainability in togo

Volume/Issue: 2012/127

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Antonio David , Luis-Felipe Zanna , Raphael Espinoza , Michal Andrle , and Marshall Mills

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

ISBN: 9781475503647

Keywords: external debt, external borrowing, public debt, International Lending and Debt Problems, Monetary Growth Models,

This paper presents an analysis of the public investment scaling-up strategy for Togo using a dynamic macroeconomic model that explicitly analyzes the links between public investment, economic growth, and debt sust...

Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries*

Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries* »

Source: Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries

Volume/Issue: 2014/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Enrico Berkes , Catherine Pattillo , Andrea Presbitero , and Yorbol Yakhshilikov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 March 2014

ISBN: 9781475579772

Keywords: DSF, Sovereign debt crises, debt thresholds, external debt, debt crises, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, International Lending and Debt Problems, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

The World Bank and the IMF have adopted a debt sustainability framework (DSF) to evaluate the risk of debt distress in Low Income Countries (LICs). At the core of the DSF are empirically-based thresholds for each o...

Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public

Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public »

Source: Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public

Volume/Issue: 2018/141

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Samba Mbaye , Marialuz Moreno Badia , and Kyungla Chae

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 June 2018

ISBN: 9781484361658

Keywords: Public debt, deleveraging, private debt, leverage cycles, bailout, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, International Lending and Debt Problems, International Business Cycles, General, International

This paper documents a form of private sector bailout that is much more common (and yet unnoticed) than the typical bank bailout. Building on the newly-created Global Debt Database, we show that excess private debt...

Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets

Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets »

Source: Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets : Determinants and Spillovers

Volume/Issue: 2012/71

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reinout De Bock , and Alexander Demyanets

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

ISBN: 9781475502237

Keywords: Macro-financial linkages, Nonperforming loans, Exchange rate, Panel regressions, capital inflows, net capital flows, exchange rates, Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, International Finance: General

This paper assesses the vulnerability of emerging markets and their banks to aggregate shocks. We find significant links between banks' asset quality, credit and macroeconomic aggregates. Lower economic growth, an...

Bank Network Analysis in the ECCU

Bank Network Analysis in the ECCU »

Source: Bank Network Analysis in the ECCU

Volume/Issue: 2018/162

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Balazs Csonto , Alejandro Guerson , Alla Myrvoda , and Emefa Sewordor

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 July 2018

ISBN: 9781484367506

Keywords: Financial Surveillance, Network Analysis, Cross-Border Financial Linkages, F34, G21, International Lending and Debt Problems

This paper applies network analysis to assess the extent of systemic vulnerabilities in the ECCU banking system. It includes two sets of illustrative stress tests. First, solvency and liquidity shocks to each indiv...

Bankers Without Borders? Implications of Ring-Fencing for European Cross-Border Banks1

Bankers Without Borders? Implications of Ring-Fencing for European Cross-Border Banks1 »

Source: Bankers Without Borders? Implications of Ring-Fencing for European Cross-Border Banks

Volume/Issue: 2010/247

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yuliya Makarova , Anna Ilyina , Christian Schmieder , and Eugenio Cerutti

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

ISBN: 9781455209477

Keywords: ring-fencing, subsidiaries, banking, capital needs, capital adequacy, banking system, International Lending and Debt Problems, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation,

This paper presents a stylized analysis of the effects of ring-fencing (i.e., different restrictions on cross-border transfers of excess profits and/or capital between a parent bank and its subsidiaries located in...