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Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs1

Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs1 »

Source: Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs

Volume/Issue: 2008/53

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pär Österholm , and Helge Berger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2008

ISBN: 9781451869156

Keywords: Bayesian VAR, Out-of-sample Forecasting, Granger Causality, money growth, monetary economics, central bank,

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up...

The ECB's Monetary Analysis Revisited

The ECB's Monetary Analysis Revisited »

Source: The ECB's Monetary Analysis Revisited

Volume/Issue: 2008/171

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Helge Berger , Thomas Harjes , and Emil Stavrev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2008

ISBN: 9781451870299

Keywords: ECB, monetary analysis, monetary pillar, New Keynesian model, DSGE model, P* model, Two-pillar Phillips curve, VAR model, generalized dynamic factor model, inflation

Monetary aggregates continue to play an important role in the ECB's policy strategy. This paper revisits the case for money, surveying the ongoing theoretical and empirical debate. The key conclusion is that an exc...

Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs

Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs »

Volume/Issue: 2008/53

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pär Österholm , and Helge Berger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869156.001

ISBN: 9781451869156

Keywords: Bayesian VAR, Out-of-sample Forecasting, Granger Causality, money growth, monetary economics, central bank,

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up...

The ECB's Monetary Analysis Revisited

The ECB's Monetary Analysis Revisited »

Volume/Issue: 2008/171

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Helge Berger , Thomas Harjes , and Emil Stavrev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870299.001

ISBN: 9781451870299

Keywords: ECB, monetary analysis, monetary pillar, New Keynesian model, DSGE model, P* model, Two-pillar Phillips curve, VAR model, generalized dynamic factor model, inflation

Monetary aggregates continue to play an important role in the ECB's policy strategy. This paper revisits the case for money, surveying the ongoing theoretical and empirical debate. The key conclusion is that an exc...

The Maastricht Inflation Criterion
			: How Unpleasant Is Purgatory?

The Maastricht Inflation Criterion : How Unpleasant Is Purgatory? »

Volume/Issue: 2006/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ales Bulir , and Jaromír Hurník

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451864144.001

ISBN: 9781451864144

Keywords: ERM2, Maastricht inflation criterion, new EU member countries, monetary policy, central bank, monetary fund, national bank, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions,

The Maastricht inflation criterion, designed in the early 1990s to bring "high-inflation" EU countries in line with "low-inflation" countries prior to the introduction of the euro, poses challenges for both new EU...

The Maastricht Inflation Criterion

The Maastricht Inflation Criterion »

Source: The Maastricht Inflation Criterion : How Unpleasant Is Purgatory?

Volume/Issue: 2006/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ales Bulir , and Jaromír Hurník

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2006

ISBN: 9781451864144

Keywords: ERM2, Maastricht inflation criterion, new EU member countries, monetary policy, central bank, monetary fund, national bank, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions,

The Maastricht inflation criterion, designed in the early 1990s to bring "high-inflation" EU countries in line with "low-inflation" countries prior to the introduction of the euro, poses challenges for both new EU...