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Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Assessing Early Warning Systems

Assessing Early Warning Systems »

Source: Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice?

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

Debt/Equity Swaps

Debt/Equity Swaps »

Source: Debt/Equity Swaps

Volume/Issue: 1988/15

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1988

ISBN: 9781451923506

Keywords: foreign exchange, banking, balance of payments, domestic currency, external liabilities

This paper describes the development of debt/equity swaps in the years following the emergence of the international debt crisis. It discusses some of the possible advantages and disadvantages offered by such swaps...

Discriminating Contagion

Discriminating Contagion »

Source: Discriminating Contagion : An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2000/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pavan Ahluwalia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

ISBN: 9781451843118

Keywords: Contagion, currency crisis, balance-of-payments, exchange rate, speculative, currency crises, real exchange rate

This paper shows that a country’s vulnerability to contagious crises depends on the visible similarities between that country and other countries that are experiencing crises. A country is vulnerable to shif...

From Suez to Tequila

From Suez to Tequila »

Source: From Suez to Tequila : The IMF As Crisis Manager

Volume/Issue: 1997/90

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): James Boughton

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1997

ISBN: 9781451952001

Keywords: IMF, financial crises, crisis management, international monetary system, financial history, current account, capital outflows, debt crisis, balance of payments, capital market

The IMF was established in 1944 in part to “give confidence” to member countries by providing short-term credits. Although the intention was that the availability of the Fund’s resources should...

How Can Fiscal Policy Help Avert Currency Crises?1

How Can Fiscal Policy Help Avert Currency Crises?1 »

Source: How Can Fiscal Policy Help Avert Currency Crises?

Volume/Issue: 2000/185

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): George Kopits

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2000

ISBN: 9781451859409

Keywords: balance of payments crises, contingent liabilities, currency crisis, fiscal policy rules, fiscal adjustment

An overview of crisis episodes in emerging-market economies with a pegged exchange rate regime in the 1990s suggests that sizable explicit or implicit government deficits, or market perceptions of lack of fiscal su...

The IMF Approach to Economic Stabilization

The IMF Approach to Economic Stabilization »

Source: The IMF Approach to Economic Stabilization

Volume/Issue: 1999/104

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Miguel Savastano , and Michael Mussa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1999

ISBN: 9781451852745

Keywords: IMF-supported programs, quantitative approach, monetary fund, monetary policy, balance of payments, central bank, external financing

This paper explains the IMF approach to economic stabilization. It argues that a Fund-supported program is a process, comprising six broadly defined phases, that evolves along a multiplicity of potential pathways....

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451857207.001

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Assessing Early Warning Systems
			: How Have they Worked in Practice?

Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice? »

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451847284.001

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

Discriminating Contagion
			: An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Discriminating Contagion : An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2000/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pavan Ahluwalia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451843118.001

ISBN: 9781451843118

Keywords: Contagion, currency crisis, balance-of-payments, exchange rate, speculative, currency crises, real exchange rate

This paper shows that a country’s vulnerability to contagious crises depends on the visible similarities between that country and other countries that are experiencing crises. A country is vulnerable to shif...