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Bunching at 3 Percent: The Maastricht Fiscal Criterion and Government Deficits*

Bunching at 3 Percent: The Maastricht Fiscal Criterion and Government Deficits* »

Source: Bunching at 3 Percent: The Maastricht Fiscal Criterion and Government Deficits

Volume/Issue: 2018/182

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesca Caselli , and Philippe Wingender

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 August 2018

ISBN: 9781484371732

Keywords: Fiscal rules, Fiscal policy, bunching estimation, treatment effects, Deficit

This paper estimates the effects of the Maastricht treaty's fiscal criterion on EU countries' general government deficits. We combine treatment effects methods with bunching estimation, and find that the 3 percent...

Closing Gender Gaps in India: Does Increasing Womens' Access to Finance Help?

Closing Gender Gaps in India: Does Increasing Womens' Access to Finance Help? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/212

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Purva Khera

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484377468.001

ISBN: 9781484377468

Keywords: gender inequality, informality, DSGE, Indian economy, Bayesian estimation

Gender gaps in womens' economic opportunities-labor market and entrepreneurship-have remained high in India. Lack of adequate collateral limits women entrepreneurs' ability to access formal finance, leaving them to...

Closing Gender Gaps in India: Does Increasing Womens' Access to Finance Help?

Closing Gender Gaps in India: Does Increasing Womens' Access to Finance Help? »

Source: Closing Gender Gaps in India: Does Increasing Womens' Access to Finance Help?

Volume/Issue: 2018/212

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Purva Khera

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 September 2018

ISBN: 9781484377468

Keywords: gender inequality, informality, DSGE, Indian economy, Bayesian estimation

Gender gaps in womens' economic opportunities-labor market and entrepreneurship-have remained high in India. Lack of adequate collateral limits women entrepreneurs' ability to access formal finance, leaving them to...

Credit Growth and Economic Recovery in Europe After the Global Financial Crisis

Credit Growth and Economic Recovery in Europe After the Global Financial Crisis »

Source: Credit Growth and Economic Recovery in Europe After the Global Financial Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2017/256

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sergei Antoshin , Marco Arena , Nikolay Gueorguiev , Tonny Lybek , John Ralyea , and Etienne Yehoue

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 November 2017

ISBN: 9781484329610

Keywords: Financial crises, Europe, Economic recovery, credit growth, creditless recoveries, bank profitability, global financial crisis, Models with Panel Data, Single Equation Models, Single Variables

This paper reviews the empirical relationships between credit growth, economic recovery, and bank profitability in Europe after the global financial crisis (GFC). We find that the post-GFC recoveries in Europe have...

Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey

Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey »

Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey

Volume/Issue: 2018/272

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul , and Antonio Spilimbergo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 December 2018

ISBN: 9781484387740

Keywords: Turkey, Europe, Policy uncertainty, economic uncertainty, firm-level, sector-level, investment decisions, employment growth, leverage strategies, diff-in-diff estimation

Uncertainty over economic policy plays a key role in economic outcomes. But evidence and quantification for emerging markets are elusive because of measurement and reverse causality issues. In this paper, we constr...

Empirical Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers in MENA Oil-Exporting Countries with an Application to Algeria

Empirical Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers in MENA Oil-Exporting Countries with an Application to Algeria »

Source: Empirical Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers in MENA Oil-Exporting Countries with an Application to Algeria

Volume/Issue: 2018/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maria Elkhdari , Moez Souissi , and Andrew Jewell

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 May 2018

ISBN: 9781484357972

Keywords: Algeria, Middle East, Fiscal policy; State-dependent multipliers; Output gap; Spending direction; Algeria; Structural Vector Autoregressive Model; Local Projection Methodology, Fiscal policy, State-dependent multipliers, Output gap, Spending direction, Structural Vector Autoregressive Model, Local Projection Methodology, Model Construction and Estimation

At a time when Algeria must undertake considerable fiscal consolidation to restore sustainability, the issue of fiscal multipliers has come to the fore. This paper estimates short-term and long-term fiscal multipli...

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy »

Source: Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Volume/Issue: 2018/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Rania Al-Mashat , Hayk Avetisyan , Jaromir Benes , Olivier Bizimana , Aram Butavyan , Robert Ford , Narek Ghazaryan , Vahagn Grigoryan , Mane Harutyunyan , Anahit Hovhannisyan , Edgar Hovhannisyan , Hayk Karapetyan , Mariam Kharaishvili , Douglas Laxton , Akaki Liqokeli , Karolina Matikyan , Gevorg Minasyan , Shalva Mkhatrishvili , Armen Nurbekyan , Andrei Orlov , Babken Pashinyan , Garik Petrosyan , Yekaterina Rezepina , Aleksandr Shirkhanyan , Tamta Sopromadze , Lusine Torosyan , Erik Vardanyan , Hou Wang , and Jiaxiong Yao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 July 2018

ISBN: 9781484366325

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, Potential output, Macroeconomic Modeling, Neutral Rate, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions...

Estimating the Demand for Reserve Assets Across Diverse Groups of Countries1

Estimating the Demand for Reserve Assets Across Diverse Groups of Countries1 »

Source: Estimating the Demand for Reserve Assets Across Diverse Groups

Volume/Issue: 2018/47

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rina Bhattacharya , Katja Mann , and Mwanza Nkusu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 March 2018

ISBN: 9781484345146

Keywords: Central banks, Demand, Foreign exchange, Econometric models, Financial crises, International reserves, Central banks and their policies, Panel data estimation, Models with Panel Data

This paper takes a fresh look at the determinants of reserves holding with the aim of highlighting similarities and differences in the motives for holding reserves among emerging markets (EMs), advanced economies (...

Excessive Private Sector Leverage and Its Drivers

Excessive Private Sector Leverage and Its Drivers »

Source: Excessive Private Sector Leverage and Its Drivers : Evidence from Advanced Economies

Volume/Issue: 2017/72

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mariusz Jarmuzek , and Rossen Rozenov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 March 2017

ISBN: 9781475589573

Keywords: household and corporate leverage; corporate capital structure; taxation; private debt sustainability, household and corporate leverage, corporate capital structure, taxation, private debt sustainability, Models with Panel Data, Single Equation Models: Single Variables: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis, Personal Finance, Business Taxes and Subsidies

Nonfinancial private sector debt increased significantly in advanced economies prior to the global financial crisis and, with a few exceptions, deleveraging has been limited. Furthermore, in some countries househol...

Financial and Business Cycles in Brazil1

Financial and Business Cycles in Brazil1 »

Source: Financial and Business Cycles in Brazil

Volume/Issue: 2017/12

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ivo Krznar , and Troy Matheson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2017

ISBN: 9781475571042

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Econometric models, Public sector, Private sector, Financial risk, Brazil, Business cycles, Credit expansion, Procyclicality of financial system, Parameter estimation

This paper explores the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle in Brazil. Cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semistructural model of the Brazil...