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Assessing Accuracy and Reliability

Assessing Accuracy and Reliability »

Source: Assessing Accuracy and Reliability : A Note Basedon Approaches Used in National Accounts and Balance of Payments Statistics

Volume/Issue: 2002/24

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carol Carson , and Lucie Laliberté

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2002

ISBN: 9781451844153

Keywords: Accuracy, judgmental evaluation, reliability, revisions, revision studies, statistics, national accounts, survey, statistical techniques, statisticians

Both national accounts and balance of payments are based on multiple, complex source data and typically undergo several routine revisions as more and better source data are incorporated into the final estimates. As...

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models »

Source: Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Volume/Issue: 2011/216

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maxym Kryshko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

ISBN: 9781463903497

Keywords: Data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, monetary policy, real output, monetary base, monetary economics, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models

Dynamic factor models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels o...

A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States

A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States »

Volume/Issue: 2015/144

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 June 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513507569.001

ISBN: 9781513507569

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Output Gap, output, inflation, unemployment rate, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

The gap between potential and actual output-the output gap-is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S...

A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis-Overview

A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis-Overview »

Volume/Issue: 2006/80

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Douglas Laxton , Andrew Berg , and Philippe Karam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451863406.001

ISBN: 9781451863406

Keywords: forecasting and simulation, model construction, and estimation, inflation, monetary fund, aggregate demand, central bank,

This paper motivates and describes an approach to forecasting and monetary policy analysis based on the use of a simple structural macroeconomic model, along the lines of those in use in a number of central banks....

A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output

A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output »

Volume/Issue: 2015/79

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Blagrave , Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Douglas Laxton , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 April 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475565133.001

ISBN: 9781475565133

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, output, economy, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and o...

A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy

A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2008/278

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Igor Ermolaev , Michel Juillard , Ioan Carabenciov , Charles Freedman , Douglas Laxton , Ondrej Kamenik , and Dmitry Korshunov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451871364.001

ISBN: 9781451871364

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, equation, correlation, forecasting, standard deviation,

This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both...

A Small Structural Monetary Policy Model for Small Open Economies with Debt Accumulation

A Small Structural Monetary Policy Model for Small Open Economies with Debt Accumulation »

Volume/Issue: 2008/64

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Philippe Karam , and A. R. Pagan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869262.001

ISBN: 9781451869262

Keywords: Small open economy, model construction and estimation, inflation, terms of trade, open economy, foreign currency,

We extend a small New Keynesian structural model used for monetary policy analysis to address a richer class of policy issues that arise in open economy analysis. We draw a distinction between absorption and domest...

An Unbiased Appraisal of Purchasing Power Parity

An Unbiased Appraisal of Purchasing Power Parity »

Volume/Issue: 2001/196

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): C. McDermott , and Paul Cashin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451859966.001

ISBN: 9781451859966

Keywords: Median-unbiased estimation, shock persistence, exchange rate, exchange rates, confidence intervals, confidence interval, real exchange rates,

Univariate studies of the hypothesis of unit roots in real exchange rates have yielded consensus point estimates of the half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity of between three to five years. However,...

Assessing Accuracy and Reliability
			: A Note Basedon Approaches Used in National Accounts and Balance of Payments Statistics

Assessing Accuracy and Reliability : A Note Basedon Approaches Used in National Accounts and Balance of Payments Statistics »

Volume/Issue: 2002/24

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carol Carson , and Lucie Laliberté

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451844153.001

ISBN: 9781451844153

Keywords: Accuracy, judgmental evaluation, reliability, revisions, revision studies, statistics, national accounts, survey, statistical techniques, statisticians

Both national accounts and balance of payments are based on multiple, complex source data and typically undergo several routine revisions as more and better source data are incorporated into the final estimates. As...

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models »

Volume/Issue: 2011/216

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maxym Kryshko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463903497.001

ISBN: 9781463903497

Keywords: Data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, monetary policy, real output, monetary base, monetary economics, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models

Dynamic factor models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels o...