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Assessing Accuracy and Reliability

Assessing Accuracy and Reliability »

Source: Assessing Accuracy and Reliability : A Note Basedon Approaches Used in National Accounts and Balance of Payments Statistics

Volume/Issue: 2002/24

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carol Carson , and Lucie Laliberté

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2002

ISBN: 9781451844153

Keywords: Accuracy, judgmental evaluation, reliability, revisions, revision studies, statistics, national accounts, survey, statistical techniques, statisticians

Both national accounts and balance of payments are based on multiple, complex source data and typically undergo several routine revisions as more and better source data are incorporated into the final estimates. As...

A Small Structural Monetary Policy Model for Small Open Economies with Debt Accumulation

A Small Structural Monetary Policy Model for Small Open Economies with Debt Accumulation »

Volume/Issue: 2008/64

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Philippe Karam , and A. R. Pagan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869262.001

ISBN: 9781451869262

Keywords: Small open economy, model construction and estimation, inflation, terms of trade, open economy, foreign currency,

We extend a small New Keynesian structural model used for monetary policy analysis to address a richer class of policy issues that arise in open economy analysis. We draw a distinction between absorption and domest...

Assessing Accuracy and Reliability
			: A Note Basedon Approaches Used in National Accounts and Balance of Payments Statistics

Assessing Accuracy and Reliability : A Note Basedon Approaches Used in National Accounts and Balance of Payments Statistics »

Volume/Issue: 2002/24

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carol Carson , and Lucie Laliberté

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451844153.001

ISBN: 9781451844153

Keywords: Accuracy, judgmental evaluation, reliability, revisions, revision studies, statistics, national accounts, survey, statistical techniques, statisticians

Both national accounts and balance of payments are based on multiple, complex source data and typically undergo several routine revisions as more and better source data are incorporated into the final estimates. As...

Inflation Targeting with NAIRU Uncertainty and Endogenous Policy Credibility

Inflation Targeting with NAIRU Uncertainty and Endogenous Policy Credibility »

Volume/Issue: 2001/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Peter Isard , Douglas Laxton , and Ann-Charlotte Eliasson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451842418.001

ISBN: 9781451842418

Keywords: monetary policy rules, credibility, NAIRU uncertainty, inflation, inflation rate, monetary authorities, Model Construction and Estimation,

Stochastic simulations are employed to compare performance of monetary policy rules in linear and nonlinear variants of a small macro model with NAIRU uncertainity under different assumptions about the way inflatio...

New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time

New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time »

Volume/Issue: 2011/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455218998.001

ISBN: 9781455218998

Keywords: Nowcasting, Short-term forecasting, Real-time data, gdp growth, forecasting, real gdp, equation, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle...

Revisions Policy for Official Statistics
			: A Matter of Governance

Revisions Policy for Official Statistics : A Matter of Governance »

Volume/Issue: 2004/87

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carol Carson , Sarmad Khawaja , and Thomas Morrison

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451851052.001

ISBN: 9781451851052

Keywords: Data quality, revisions policy, macroeconomic statistics, statistics, balance of payments, survey, balance of payments statistics, Econometric and Statistical Methods: General, Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics: General, International Economics: General

This paper proposes a set of good practices for the revision of macroeconomic data. The authors argue that revisions are a routine part of disseminating quality data. Revisions are made not just to correct errors b...

The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation »

Volume/Issue: 2008/166

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emil Stavrev , and Helge Berger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870244.001

ISBN: 9781451870244

Keywords: Information content of money, inflation forecasting, New Keynesian model, DSGE model, P* model, Two-pillar Phillips curve, VAR model, general dynamic factor model, Bayesian estimation, aggregate demand

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among...

The Two Monetary Approaches to the Balance of Payments
			: Keynesian and Johnsonian

The Two Monetary Approaches to the Balance of Payments : Keynesian and Johnsonian »

Volume/Issue: 2001/100

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): J. Polak

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451852400.001

ISBN: 9781451852400

Keywords: Monetary approach to the balance of payments, monetarism, monetary approach, money supply, monetary fund, demand for money, History of Thought: Macroeconomics, History of Thought: Individuals, Model Construction and Estimation, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General

This paper emphasizes the distinction between two ‘monetary approaches to the balance of payments’, one developed in the IMF, the other under the leadership of Harry Johnson in Chicago. The IMF approa...

Inflation Targeting with NAIRU Uncertainty and Endogenous Policy Credibility

Inflation Targeting with NAIRU Uncertainty and Endogenous Policy Credibility »

Source: Inflation Targeting with NAIRU Uncertainty and Endogenous Policy Credibility

Volume/Issue: 2001/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Peter Isard , Douglas Laxton , and Ann-Charlotte Eliasson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2001

ISBN: 9781451842418

Keywords: monetary policy rules, credibility, NAIRU uncertainty, inflation, inflation rate, monetary authorities, Model Construction and Estimation,

Stochastic simulations are employed to compare performance of monetary policy rules in linear and nonlinear variants of a small macro model with NAIRU uncertainity under different assumptions about the way inflatio...

The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation »

Source: The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

Volume/Issue: 2008/166

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emil Stavrev , and Helge Berger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2008

ISBN: 9781451870244

Keywords: Information content of money, inflation forecasting, New Keynesian model, DSGE model, P* model, Two-pillar Phillips curve, VAR model, general dynamic factor model, Bayesian estimation, aggregate demand

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among...