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Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model1

Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model1 »

Source: Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model

Volume/Issue: 2009/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Douglas Laxton , Michal Andrle , Haris Munandar , Charles Freedman , and Danny Hermawan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2009

ISBN: 9781451941715

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, rate of inflation, real interest rate, Model Construction and Estimation,

This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which ec...

Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model1

Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model1 »

Source: Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model

Volume/Issue: 2009/85

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2009

ISBN: 9781451872323

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, equation, forecasting, real interest rate,

This is the fourth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which e...

Armenia

Armenia »

Source: Armenia : An Assessment of the Real Exchange Rate and Competitiveness

Volume/Issue: 2011/20

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anke Weber , and Chunfang Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2011

ISBN: 9781455211951

Keywords: Equilibrium exchange rate, competitiveness, panel estimations, exchange rate, real exchange rate, cointegration, survey, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

This paper uses a range of different methodologies to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate in Armenia with both single-country and panel estimation techniques. We estimate a country specific autoregressive d...

Assessing Exchange Rate Competitiveness in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union1

Assessing Exchange Rate Competitiveness in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union1 »

Source: Assessing Exchange Rate Competitiveness in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

Volume/Issue: 2009/78

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emilio Pineda , Paul Cashin , and Yan Sun

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2009

ISBN: 9781451872255

Keywords: Equilibrium real exchange rate, tourism exports, panel estimation, ECCU, exchange rate, real exchange rate, current account, current account balance,

This paper uses three methods to assess movements of real exchange rates in the ECCU over time. First, the purchasing power parity hypothesis is tested and then used to provide a benchmark for equilibrium real exch...

An Assessment of Malaysian Monetary Policy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09

An Assessment of Malaysian Monetary Policy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 »

Source: An Assessment of Malaysian Monetary Policy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09

Volume/Issue: 2012/35

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Selim Elekdag , Subir Lall , and Harun Alp

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2012

ISBN: 9781463933203

Keywords: financial accelerator, Bayesian estimation, DSGE model, exchange rate, exchange rate regime, exchange rate flexibility, fixed exchange rate regime, Bayesian Analysis, And The Supply Of Money And Credit,

Malaysia was hit hard by the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Anticipating the downturn that would follow the episode of extreme financial turbulence, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) let the exchange rate depreciate...

Asset Booms and Structural Fiscal Positions

Asset Booms and Structural Fiscal Positions »

Source: Asset Booms and Structural Fiscal Positions : The Case of Ireland

Volume/Issue: 2010/57

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Kanda

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2010

ISBN: 9781451963687

Keywords: Asset Price Cycle, Property Bubble, expenditure, structural fiscal, fiscal balance, public finances, Estimation, Model Construction and Estimation, National Deficit Surplus, Econometric And Statistical Methods: - General,

Asset booms and sectoral changes can distort traditional estimates of structural fiscal revenue, and could lead to serious fiscal policy errors. This paper extends the estimation of structural revenues to take acco...

Avoid Filling Swiss Cheese with Whipped Cream

Avoid Filling Swiss Cheese with Whipped Cream »

Source: Avoid Filling Swiss Cheese with Whipped Cream : Imputation Techniques and Evaluation Procedures for Cross-Country Time Series

Volume/Issue: 2011/151

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michael Weber , and Michaela Denk

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455270507

Keywords: Missing or incomplete data, imputation quality, statistical matching, time series, missing data, algorithms, statistical methods, cluster analysis, Estimation, Model Evaluation and Selection

International organizations collect data from national authorities to create multivariate cross-sectional time series for their analyses. As data from countries with not yet well-established statistical systems may...

Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model

Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model »

Source: Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model

Volume/Issue: 2011/219

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maxym Kryshko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

ISBN: 9781463904210

Keywords: Regular and data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, real output, money demand, money balances, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Prices

When estimating DSGE models, the number of observable economic variables is usually kept small, and it is conveniently assumed that DSGE model variables are perfectly measured by a single data series. Building upon...

A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa

A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa »

Source: A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa

Volume/Issue: 2008/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomas Harjes , and Luca Ricci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2008

ISBN: 9781451869101

Keywords: monetary model, Bayesian estimation, monetary policy, real interest rate, monetary transmission,

This paper estimates a small dynamic macroeconomic model for the South African economy with Bayesian methods. The model is tailored to assessing the impact of domestic as well as external shocks on inflation within...

Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus

Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus »

Source: Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus : An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions

Volume/Issue: 2013/2

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and Mohammad Rahmati

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 January 2013

ISBN: 9781475531152

Keywords: Civil conflict, conflict recurrence risk, growth, institutions, geography, structural reforms, dynamic panel estimation, post-conflict, real gdp, gdp per capita

This paper provides a broad empirical analysis of the determinants of post-conflict economic transitions across the world during the period 1960-2010, using a dynamic panel estimation approach based on the system-g...