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Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model1 »
Source: Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model
Volume/Issue: 2009/253
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Douglas Laxton , Michal Andrle , Haris Munandar , Charles Freedman , and Danny Hermawan
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 November 2009
ISBN: 9781451941715
Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, rate of inflation, real interest rate, Model Construction and Estimation,
This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which ec...
Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model1 »
Source: Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model
Volume/Issue: 2009/85
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): International Monetary Fund
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 April 2009
ISBN: 9781451872323
Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, equation, forecasting, real interest rate,
This is the fourth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which e...
Armenia »
Source: Armenia : An Assessment of the Real Exchange Rate and Competitiveness
Volume/Issue: 2011/20
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Anke Weber , and Chunfang Yang
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 January 2011
ISBN: 9781455211951
Keywords: Equilibrium exchange rate, competitiveness, panel estimations, exchange rate, real exchange rate, cointegration, survey, Open Economy Macroeconomics,
This paper uses a range of different methodologies to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate in Armenia with both single-country and panel estimation techniques. We estimate a country specific autoregressive d...
Assessing Exchange Rate Competitiveness in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union1 »
Source: Assessing Exchange Rate Competitiveness in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union
Volume/Issue: 2009/78
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Emilio Pineda , Paul Cashin , and Yan Sun
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 April 2009
ISBN: 9781451872255
Keywords: Equilibrium real exchange rate, tourism exports, panel estimation, ECCU, exchange rate, real exchange rate, current account, current account balance,
This paper uses three methods to assess movements of real exchange rates in the ECCU over time. First, the purchasing power parity hypothesis is tested and then used to provide a benchmark for equilibrium real exch...
An Assessment of Malaysian Monetary Policy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 »
Source: An Assessment of Malaysian Monetary Policy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09
Volume/Issue: 2012/35
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Selim Elekdag , Subir Lall , and Harun Alp
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 January 2012
ISBN: 9781463933203
Keywords: financial accelerator, Bayesian estimation, DSGE model, exchange rate, exchange rate regime, exchange rate flexibility, fixed exchange rate regime, Bayesian Analysis, And The Supply Of Money And Credit,
Malaysia was hit hard by the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Anticipating the downturn that would follow the episode of extreme financial turbulence, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) let the exchange rate depreciate...
Asset Booms and Structural Fiscal Positions »
Source: Asset Booms and Structural Fiscal Positions : The Case of Ireland
Volume/Issue: 2010/57
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Daniel Kanda
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 March 2010
ISBN: 9781451963687
Keywords: Asset Price Cycle, Property Bubble, expenditure, structural fiscal, fiscal balance, public finances, Estimation, Model Construction and Estimation, National Deficit Surplus, Econometric And Statistical Methods: - General,
Asset booms and sectoral changes can distort traditional estimates of structural fiscal revenue, and could lead to serious fiscal policy errors. This paper extends the estimation of structural revenues to take acco...
Avoid Filling Swiss Cheese with Whipped Cream »
Source: Avoid Filling Swiss Cheese with Whipped Cream : Imputation Techniques and Evaluation Procedures for Cross-Country Time Series
Volume/Issue: 2011/151
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Michael Weber , and Michaela Denk
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 June 2011
ISBN: 9781455270507
Keywords: Missing or incomplete data, imputation quality, statistical matching, time series, missing data, algorithms, statistical methods, cluster analysis, Estimation, Model Evaluation and Selection
International organizations collect data from national authorities to create multivariate cross-sectional time series for their analyses. As data from countries with not yet well-established statistical systems may...
Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model »
Source: Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model
Volume/Issue: 2011/219
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Maxym Kryshko
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 September 2011
ISBN: 9781463904210
Keywords: Regular and data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, real output, money demand, money balances, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Prices
When estimating DSGE models, the number of observable economic variables is usually kept small, and it is conveniently assumed that DSGE model variables are perfectly measured by a single data series. Building upon...
A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa »
Source: A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa
Volume/Issue: 2008/48
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Thomas Harjes , and Luca Ricci
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 February 2008
ISBN: 9781451869101
Keywords: monetary model, Bayesian estimation, monetary policy, real interest rate, monetary transmission,
This paper estimates a small dynamic macroeconomic model for the South African economy with Bayesian methods. The model is tailored to assessing the impact of domestic as well as external shocks on inflation within...
Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus »
Source: Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus : An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions
Volume/Issue: 2013/2
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and Mohammad Rahmati
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 04 January 2013
ISBN: 9781475531152
Keywords: Civil conflict, conflict recurrence risk, growth, institutions, geography, structural reforms, dynamic panel estimation, post-conflict, real gdp, gdp per capita
This paper provides a broad empirical analysis of the determinants of post-conflict economic transitions across the world during the period 1960-2010, using a dynamic panel estimation approach based on the system-g...