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Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model1

Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model1 »

Source: Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model

Volume/Issue: 2009/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Douglas Laxton , Michal Andrle , Haris Munandar , Charles Freedman , and Danny Hermawan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2009

ISBN: 9781451941715

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, rate of inflation, real interest rate, Model Construction and Estimation,

This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which ec...

An Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran

An Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran »

Source: An Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran

Volume/Issue: 2002/205

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mangal Goswami , and Oya Celasun

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2002

ISBN: 9781451874563

Keywords: Exchange Rate, money market, money supply, inflation rate, Model Construction and Estimation,

This study examines money demand and inflation dynamics in the Islamic Republic of Iran using quarterly data for the period 1990/91-2001/02 and tests whether the disinflation during 2000/01-2001/02 represents a str...

Assessing Monthly Progress towards Annual Fiscal Revenue Targets

Assessing Monthly Progress towards Annual Fiscal Revenue Targets »

Source: Assessing Monthly Progress towards Annual Fiscal Revenue Targets

Volume/Issue: 2002/116

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Kanda

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2002

ISBN: 9781451853940

Keywords: fiscal, revenue, hypothesis testing, statistic, tax revenue, equation, tax collections, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications,

A simple statistical methodology is developed to help evaluate monthly progress toward an annual fiscal revenue target, and the applicability of the methodology to both developing and industrial countries is demons...

Asset Booms and Structural Fiscal Positions

Asset Booms and Structural Fiscal Positions »

Source: Asset Booms and Structural Fiscal Positions : The Case of Ireland

Volume/Issue: 2010/57

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Kanda

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2010

ISBN: 9781451963687

Keywords: Asset Price Cycle, Property Bubble, expenditure, structural fiscal, fiscal balance, public finances, Estimation, Model Construction and Estimation, National Deficit Surplus, Econometric And Statistical Methods: - General,

Asset booms and sectoral changes can distort traditional estimates of structural fiscal revenue, and could lead to serious fiscal policy errors. This paper extends the estimation of structural revenues to take acco...

Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending

Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending »

Source: Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending : Does the Level of Real Interest Rates Matter?

Volume/Issue: 2005/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Woon Choi , and Michael Devereux

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2005

ISBN: 9781451860269

Keywords: Ricardian equivalence, regime switching, threshold vector autoregression, inflation, real rates, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Model Construction and Estimation,

This paper empirically explores how fiscal policy (represented by increases in government spending) has asymmetric effects on economic activity at different levels of real interest rates. It suggests that the effec...

Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?

Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved? »

Source: Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?

Volume/Issue: 2004/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Juan Zalduendo , and Catia Batista

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2004

ISBN: 9781451874488

Keywords: Model estimation, forecasting, growth, inflation, statistic, terms of trade, inflation rates, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General

Numerous reports have noted that the IMF's medium-term growth projections are overly optimistic, raising questions as to how these can be improved. To this end, we estimate a growth model and examine its out-of-sam...

Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output

Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output »

Source: Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output : Further International Evidence

Volume/Issue: 2002/229

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francisco Nadal De Simone

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2002

ISBN: 9781451875485

Keywords: common, European and idiosyncratic components, state-space Models, statistics, correlation, time series, statistic, Model Construction and Estimation, International Policy Coordination and Transmission,

This paper uses the classical (level) definition of business cycles to analyze the characteristics-duration, amplitude, steepness, and cumulative output movements-of the real GDP series of France, Germany, Italy, t...

Contagion Risk in the International Banking System and Implications for London As a Global Financial Center

Contagion Risk in the International Banking System and Implications for London As a Global Financial Center »

Source: Contagion Risk in the International Banking System and Implications for London As a Global Financial Center

Volume/Issue: 2007/74

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau , Srobona Mitra , and Li Ong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2007

ISBN: 9781451866384

Keywords: co-exceedance, contagion risk, distance-to-default, extreme value theory, LOGIT, foreign banks, financial institutions, stock market, financial system, financial markets

In this paper, we use the extreme value theory (EVT) framework to analyze contagion risk across the international banking system. We test for the likelihood that an extreme shock affecting a major, systemic U.K. ba...

Credit Flows, Fiscal Policy, and the External Deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Credit Flows, Fiscal Policy, and the External Deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina »

Source: Credit Flows, Fiscal Policy, and the External Deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Volume/Issue: 2006/276

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Kanda

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2006

ISBN: 9781451865363

Keywords: Fiscal, monetary, trade balance, fiscal expenditure, fiscal tightening, disposable income, fiscal consolidation, Estimation, Model Construction and Estimation, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation

This paper develops and estimates a model of the trade balance of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Credit flows and the fiscal stance are found to play a significant role in determining the trade balance. On this basis the...

Empirical Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers in MENA Oil-Exporting Countries with an Application to Algeria

Empirical Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers in MENA Oil-Exporting Countries with an Application to Algeria »

Source: Empirical Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers in MENA Oil-Exporting Countries with an Application to Algeria

Volume/Issue: 2018/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maria Elkhdari , Moez Souissi , and Andrew Jewell

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 May 2018

ISBN: 9781484357972

Keywords: Algeria, Middle East, Fiscal policy; State-dependent multipliers; Output gap; Spending direction; Algeria; Structural Vector Autoregressive Model; Local Projection Methodology, Fiscal policy, State-dependent multipliers, Output gap, Spending direction, Structural Vector Autoregressive Model, Local Projection Methodology, Model Construction and Estimation

At a time when Algeria must undertake considerable fiscal consolidation to restore sustainability, the issue of fiscal multipliers has come to the fore. This paper estimates short-term and long-term fiscal multipli...