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Adjustment Uncertainty, Confidence, and Growth

Adjustment Uncertainty, Confidence, and Growth »

Source: Adjustment Uncertainty, Confidence, and Growth : Latin America After the Debt Crisis

Volume/Issue: 1989/105

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 December 1989

ISBN: 9781451947359

Keywords: inflation, fiscal adjustment, real wages, public debt, relative prices

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, inclu...

As You sow so Shall You Reap

As You sow so Shall You Reap »

Source: As You sow so Shall You Reap : Public Investment Surges, Growth, and Debt Sustainability in togo

Volume/Issue: 2012/127

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Antonio David , Luis-Felipe Zanna , Raphael Espinoza , Michal Andrle , and Marshall Mills

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

ISBN: 9781475503647

Keywords: external debt, external borrowing, public debt, International Lending and Debt Problems, Monetary Growth Models,

This paper presents an analysis of the public investment scaling-up strategy for Togo using a dynamic macroeconomic model that explicitly analyzes the links between public investment, economic growth, and debt sust...

Aspects of Fiscal Performance in Some Transition Economies Under Fund-Supported Programs

Aspects of Fiscal Performance in Some Transition Economies Under Fund-Supported Programs »

Source: Aspects of Fiscal Performance in Some Transition Economies Under Fund-Supported Programs

Volume/Issue: 1997/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Willem Buiter

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 1997

ISBN: 9781451980073

Keywords: debt, interest, public debt, deficits, fiscal deficits

Key medium– and longer–term fiscal issues faced by transition economies are reviewed, including government solvency and the sustainability of the fiscal–financial–monetary program. The p...

Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods

Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods »

Source: Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods

Volume/Issue: 2005/226

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Philippe Karam , and Douglas Hostland

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2005

ISBN: 9781451862454

Keywords: risk measures, fiscal rule, public debt, external debt, debt burden, current account, primary fiscal balance, Simulation Methods, National Deficit Surplus,

This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium te...

Assessing Fiscal Stress

Assessing Fiscal Stress »

Source: Assessing Fiscal Stress

Volume/Issue: 2011/100

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gabriela Dobrescu , Iva Petrova , Nazim Belhocine , and Emanuele Baldacci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2011

ISBN: 9781455254316

Keywords: fiscal stress, fiscal vulnerability, public debt crises, sovereign default, public debt, fiscal indicators, fiscal crisis, fiscal variables, National Deficit Surplus, Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for advanced and emerging economies. Unlike previous studies, the index assesses the determinants of fiscal str...

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability »

Source: Assessing Fiscal Sustainability : A Cross-Country Comparison

Volume/Issue: 2003/145

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Enzo Croce , and V. Juan-Ramon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2003

ISBN: 9781451856569

Keywords: convergence, fiscal rule, public debt, debt ratio, fiscal stance, National Government Expenditures and Related Policies, National Budget, Deficit, and Debt,

To monitor fiscal sustainability, this paper proposes a recursive algorithm derived from the law of motion of the debt-to-GDP ratio, subject to a government reaction function that links convergence to the targeted...

Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public

Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public »

Source: Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public

Volume/Issue: 2018/141

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Samba Mbaye , Marialuz Moreno Badia , and Kyungla Chae

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 June 2018

ISBN: 9781484361658

Keywords: Public debt, deleveraging, private debt, leverage cycles, bailout, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, International Lending and Debt Problems, International Business Cycles, General, International

This paper documents a form of private sector bailout that is much more common (and yet unnoticed) than the typical bank bailout. Building on the newly-created Global Debt Database, we show that excess private debt...

Big Government, High Debt, and Fiscal Adjustment in Small States

Big Government, High Debt, and Fiscal Adjustment in Small States »

Source: Big Government, High Debt, and Fiscal Adjustment in Small States

Volume/Issue: 2008/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rui Ota , and Stephanie Medina Cas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2008

ISBN: 9781451869019

Keywords: Government size, fiscal adjustment, external debt, external public debt,

Using a new fiscal dataset for small states, this paper analyzes the link between country size, government size, debt, and economic performance. It finds that on average small states have larger governments and hig...

The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes1

The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes1 »

Source: The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes

Volume/Issue: 2016/202

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laura Jaramillo , Carlos Mulas-Granados , and Elijah Kimani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 October 2016

ISBN: 9781475545043

Keywords: Public Debt, Debt Spikes, Stock Flow Adjsutment, SFA, Debt Forecasting

What explains public debt spikes since the end of WWII? To answer this question, this paper identifies 179 debt spike episodes from 1945 to 2014 across advanced and developing countries. We find that debt spikes ar...

Budgetary Convergence in the WEAMU

Budgetary Convergence in the WEAMU »

Source: Budgetary Convergence in the WEAMU : Adjustment Through Revenue or Expenditure?

Volume/Issue: 2000/109

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jean-Claude Nachega , and Ousmane Dore

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2000

ISBN: 9781451853209

Keywords: Convergence, Granger causality, Co-integration, Error-correction, expenditure, expenditures, public debt, budget deficit

A regional convergence pact adopted recently by the Conference of Heads of States of WAEMU provides a framework for fiscal convergence similar to the European Union’s Maastricht Treaty. Using bivariate co-in...