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The Case for an Independent Fiscal Institution in Japan

The Case for an Independent Fiscal Institution in Japan »

Source: The Case for an Independent Fiscal Institution in Japan

Volume/Issue: 2016/156

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): George Kopits

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 August 2016

ISBN: 9781475522686

Keywords: Japan’;s fiscal policy; public debt sustainability; independent fiscal institutions.

In response to the recent financial crisis and the ensuing buildup in public indebtedness, an increasing number of advanced economies have created independent fiscal institutions (IFIs) to improve the quality of pu...

Debt Maturity

Debt Maturity »

Source: Debt Maturity : Does It Matter for Fiscal Space?

Volume/Issue: 2015/257

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jun Kim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 December 2015

ISBN: 9781513511931

Keywords: Debt sustainability, Fiscal policy, Public debt, Econometric models, Fiscal space, Sovereign debt defaults, sovereign default, debt maturity, debt limit, Deficit

This paper examines how debt maturity affects the debt limit, defined as the maximum amount of debt a government can afford without defaulting. We develop a model where investors are risk neutral, the primary balan...

A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon

A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon »

Volume/Issue: 2008/97

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): E. Gardner , and Julian Di Giovanni

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869583.001

ISBN: 9781451869583

Keywords: Public debt sustainability, risk analysis, Monte Carlo, fan charts, debt sustainability, debt ratio, covariance, probability, standard deviation,

This paper applies a simple probabilistic approach to debt sustainability analysis to the case of Lebanon. The paper derives "fan charts" to depict the probability distribution of the government debt to GDP ratio u...

A Stochastic Framework for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

A Stochastic Framework for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2008/58

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gabriel Di Bella

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869200.001

ISBN: 9781451869200

Keywords: Public debt sustainability, risk analysis, debt thresholds, debt ratio, international reserves, public debt, domestic currency, debt sustainability,

This paper proposes a framework for public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) that is complementary to that generally used by IFIs. The DSA in this paper has three components: (i) an integrated and consistent accou...

Debt Maturity
			: Does It Matter for Fiscal Space?

Debt Maturity : Does It Matter for Fiscal Space? »

Volume/Issue: 2015/257

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jun Kim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 December 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511931.001

ISBN: 9781513511931

Keywords: Debt sustainability, Fiscal policy, Public debt, Econometric models, Fiscal space, Sovereign debt defaults, sovereign default, debt maturity, debt limit, Deficit

This paper examines how debt maturity affects the debt limit, defined as the maximum amount of debt a government can afford without defaulting. We develop a model where investors are risk neutral, the primary balan...

Lost and Found
			: Market Access and Public Debt Dynamics

Lost and Found : Market Access and Public Debt Dynamics »

Volume/Issue: 2016/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carlo Cottarelli , Andrea Presbitero , and Antonio Bassanetti

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 December 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475563207.001

ISBN: 9781475563207

Keywords: International capital markets, Public debt, Sovereign debt, Default, Econometric models, Emerging markets, Debt sustainability, Access to capital markets, Market access, International financial markets

The empirical literature on sovereign debt crises identifies the level of public debt (measured as a share of GDP) as a key variable to predict debt defaults and to determine sovereign market access. This evidence...

Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty
			: An Invariant Set Approach

Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty : An Invariant Set Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2017/57

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rossen Rozenov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475586251.001

ISBN: 9781475586251

Keywords: ublic debt sustainability, uncertainty, fiscal reaction function, set invariance, linear matrix inequalities, public debt sustainability, Computational Techniques, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

The paper offers an approach to assessing the sustainability of public debt taking into account the effect of fiscal policy on output, as well as uncertainty in the model parameters and system dynamics. Uncertainty...

Public Debt Targeting An Application to the Caribbean

Public Debt Targeting An Application to the Caribbean »

Volume/Issue: 2011/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alejandro Guerson , and Giovanni Melina

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463902148.001

ISBN: 9781463902148

Keywords: Procyclical spending, public debt sustainability, public debt, primary expenditure, debt accumulation, debt sustainability, International Lending and Debt Problems, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation, National Budget, Deficit

This paper proposes a fiscal policy framework we call Public Debt Targeting. The framework seeks to smooth primary spending over the business cycle while remaining consistent with public debt sustainability. Under...

Signaling Fiscal Regime Sustainability

Signaling Fiscal Regime Sustainability »

Volume/Issue: 1999/86

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alessandro Prati , and Francesco Drudi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1999

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451850864.001

ISBN: 9781451850864

Keywords: signaling, fiscal stabilization, tax smoothing, debt sustainability, credit ratings, debt stock, stock of debt, public debt, fiscal regime, primary deficit

This paper proposes a signaling model that offers a new perspective on why governments deviate from optimal tax smoothing and delay debt stabilization. In our model, dependable—but not fully credible—...

The Case for an Independent Fiscal Institution in Japan

The Case for an Independent Fiscal Institution in Japan »

Volume/Issue: 2016/156

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): George Kopits

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 August 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475522686.001

ISBN: 9781475522686

Keywords: Japan’;s fiscal policy; public debt sustainability; independent fiscal institutions.

In response to the recent financial crisis and the ensuing buildup in public indebtedness, an increasing number of advanced economies have created independent fiscal institutions (IFIs) to improve the quality of pu...