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Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems
			: The Role of Early Warning Systems

Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557758286.084

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption t...

Back Matter

Back Matter »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption t...

Front Matter

Front Matter »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption t...

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

The Asia Crisis

The Asia Crisis »

Source: The Asia Crisis : Causes, Policy Responses, and Outcomes

Volume/Issue: 1999/138

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 1999

ISBN: 9781451855968

Keywords: Asia crisis, interest rates and exchange rates, currency crises, balance of payments crises, exchange rate, banking, banking system, exchange rates, foreign exchange

This paper tells the story of the Asian financial crisis by addressing four questions: What were the causes of the crisis, how did the crisis unfold, what were the policy responses, and what have been the outcomes?...

Assessing Early Warning Systems

Assessing Early Warning Systems »

Source: Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice?

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis

A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis »

Source: A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2002/210

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Brad Setser , Nouriel Roubini , Christian Keller , Mark Allen , and Christoph Rosenberg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2002

ISBN: 9781451957150

Keywords: Emerging markets, Financial crisis, International financial markets, National balance sheets, IMF policy, exchange rate, currency risk, foreign exchange, external debt, balance of payments

The paper lays out an analytical framework for understanding crises in emerging markets based on examination of stock variables in the aggregate balance sheet of a country and the balance sheets of its main sectors...

Discriminating Contagion

Discriminating Contagion »

Source: Discriminating Contagion : An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2000/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pavan Ahluwalia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

ISBN: 9781451843118

Keywords: Contagion, currency crisis, balance-of-payments, exchange rate, speculative, currency crises, real exchange rate

This paper shows that a country’s vulnerability to contagious crises depends on the visible similarities between that country and other countries that are experiencing crises. A country is vulnerable to shif...

3 Economic Adjustment, Financing, and Growth in Southeast Asia During the 1980s

3 Economic Adjustment, Financing, and Growth in Southeast Asia During the 1980s »

Source: Strategies for Structural Adjustment : The Experience of Southeast Asia, papers presented at a seminar held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, June 28-July 1, 1989

Series: Books

Author(s): Ungku Abdul Aziz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 March 1990

ISBN: 9781557751478

Keywords: exchange rate, structural adjustment, balance of payments, exchange rates, export earnings

The debt crisis that emerged in the early 1980s forced many countries to reconsider their development strategies. Many had embraced international borrowing as a way to boost investm...

6 Exchange Rate Policies and Management: A Model for Successful Structural Adjustment

6 Exchange Rate Policies and Management: A Model for Successful Structural Adjustment »

Source: Strategies for Structural Adjustment : The Experience of Southeast Asia, papers presented at a seminar held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, June 28-July 1, 1989

Series: Books

Author(s): Ungku Abdul Aziz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 March 1990

ISBN: 9781557751478

Keywords: exchange rate, structural adjustment, balance of payments, exchange rates, export earnings

Over the past two decades rising economic performance in the developing countries of East Asia has propelled the region into growing prominence and has raised important questions re...