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External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies

External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies »

Source: External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies : How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion

Volume/Issue: 1999/88

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christian Mulder , and Matthieu Bussière

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1999

ISBN: 9781451851144

Keywords: Vulnerability indicators, economic crises, emerging markets, short-term debt, exchange rate, current account, real exchange rate, current account deficit

This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff...

External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies
			: How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion

External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies : How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion »

Volume/Issue: 1999/88

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christian Mulder , and Matthieu Bussière

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1999

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451851144.001

ISBN: 9781451851144

Keywords: Vulnerability indicators, economic crises, emerging markets, short-term debt, exchange rate, current account, real exchange rate, current account deficit

This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff...

Persistent Gaps, Volatility Types, and Default Traps

Persistent Gaps, Volatility Types, and Default Traps »

Volume/Issue: 2007/148

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ana Fostel , Sandeep Kapur , and Luis Catão

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451867121.001

ISBN: 9781451867121

Keywords: Sovereign Debt, Default, Country Spreads, Output Volatility and Persistence, bond, bonds, sovereign bond, bondholders, Sovereign Debt. Default,

We show that cross-country differences in the underlying volatility and persistence of macroeconomic shocks help explain two historical regularities in sovereign borrowing: the existence of "vicious" circles of bor...

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2003/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Axel Schimmelpfennig , Nouriel Roubini , and Paolo Manasse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451875256.001

ISBN: 9781451875256

Keywords: Early-warning system, sovereign debt crises, sovereign default, debt crisis, external debt, debt crises, short-term debt, currency crisis, General Outlook and Conditions, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF finan...

Rating the Rating Agencies
			: Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises?

Rating the Rating Agencies : Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises? »

Volume/Issue: 2003/122

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Amadou Sy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451854510.001

ISBN: 9781451854510

Keywords: Crisis, distress, early-warning systems, probability of default, ratings, currency crises, currency crisis, debt crises, bond, sovereign default

In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipa...

Re-Accessing International Capital Markets After Financial Crises
			: Some Empirical Evidence

Re-Accessing International Capital Markets After Financial Crises : Some Empirical Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2007/136

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luisa Zanforlin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451867008.001

ISBN: 9781451867008

Keywords: Re-access, capital markets, debt service, international capital, global liquidity, International Lending and Debt Problems, Economic Development: General,

The paper analyzes the factors that contribute to the re-access of countries that emerge from a severe financial crisis to the international capital markets. It conjectures that these factors depend on a sovereign'...

Riding the Roller Coaster
			: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean

Riding the Roller Coaster : Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean »

Volume/Issue: 2010/251

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pablo Lopez Murphy , Mauricio Villafuerte , and Rolando Ossowski

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455209514.001

ISBN: 9781455209514

Keywords: expenditure, fiscal policies, fiscal sustainability, Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government, National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General, National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General

This paper analyzes recent fiscal policies of nonrenewable resource exporting countries in Latin America and the Caribbean in the context of sharp swings in resource prices. Fiscal policies were predominantly procy...

Risk and Capital Flight in Developing Countries

Risk and Capital Flight in Developing Countries »

Volume/Issue: 1990/64

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1990

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451962895.001

ISBN: 9781451962895

Keywords: capital flight, external debt, balance of payments, debt crisis, debt-equity

The risks of large capital losses on the domestic assets of developing countries resulting from expropriation, inflation, or devaluations are identified as the major causes of capital flight. The combination of lar...

Sovereign Ceilings 'Lite'? The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Corporate Ratings in Emerging Market Economies

Sovereign Ceilings 'Lite'? The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Corporate Ratings in Emerging Market Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2007/75

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eduardo Borensztein , Patricio Valenzuela , and Kevin Cowan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451866391.001

ISBN: 9781451866391

Keywords: credit rating, sovereign default, credit rating agencies, current account, external debt, General Financial Markets, Financial Institutions And Services, Corporate Finance And Governance,

Although credit rating agencies have gradually moved away from a policy of never rating a private borrower above the sovereign (the "sovereign ceiling") it appears that sovereign ratings remain a significant determ...

Statistical Issues of Debt Conversions

Statistical Issues of Debt Conversions »

Volume/Issue: 1988/28

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 March 1988

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451981056.001

ISBN: 9781451981056

Keywords: central bank, debt conversion, external debt, debtor country, debt conversions

This paper examines two aspects of debt conversions. First, it examines general aspects of secondary markets of developing countries’ bank debt, and the debt conversions that have taken place in a number of...