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External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies

External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies »

Source: External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies : How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion

Volume/Issue: 1999/88

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christian Mulder , and Matthieu Bussière

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1999

ISBN: 9781451851144

Keywords: Vulnerability indicators, economic crises, emerging markets, short-term debt, exchange rate, current account, real exchange rate, current account deficit

This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff...

I Overview and Current Issues

I Overview and Current Issues »

Source: Private Market Financing for Developing Countries

Series: World Economic and Financial Surveys

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 1995

ISBN: 9781557755261

Keywords: debt, interest, bonds, bond, payments

Over the course of 1994 and the first half of 1995, several countries concluded debt deals with their commercial bank creditors, and a few others announced agreements in principle. 1...

II Commercial Bank Debt Restructuring

II Commercial Bank Debt Restructuring »

Source: Private Market Financing for Developing Countries

Series: World Economic and Financial Surveys

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 1995

ISBN: 9781557755261

Keywords: debt, interest, bonds, bond, payments

Considerable additional progress was made in 1994 and the first half of 1995 in resolving the commercial bank debt problems of developing countries (see the Statistical Appendix, Tables A2 and A3). Debt- and...

III Recent Developments in Private Market Financing

III Recent Developments in Private Market Financing »

Source: Private Market Financing for Developing Countries

Series: World Economic and Financial Surveys

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 1995

ISBN: 9781557755261

Keywords: debt, interest, bonds, bond, payments

Developing countries experienced a dramatic increase in capital inflows during the 1990s, following a slowdown in economic activity in the industrial countries and a decline in interest rates, particularly i...

Venezuela
			: Statistical Appendix

Venezuela : Statistical Appendix »

Volume/Issue: 1999/111

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 October 1999

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451840094.002

ISBN: 9781451840094

Keywords: central bank, balance of payments, external debt, monetary fund, current account

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discuss...

External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies
			: How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion

External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies : How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion »

Volume/Issue: 1999/88

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christian Mulder , and Matthieu Bussière

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1999

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451851144.001

ISBN: 9781451851144

Keywords: Vulnerability indicators, economic crises, emerging markets, short-term debt, exchange rate, current account, real exchange rate, current account deficit

This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff...

Persistent Gaps, Volatility Types, and Default Traps

Persistent Gaps, Volatility Types, and Default Traps »

Volume/Issue: 2007/148

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ana Fostel , Sandeep Kapur , and Luis Catão

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451867121.001

ISBN: 9781451867121

Keywords: Sovereign Debt, Default, Country Spreads, Output Volatility and Persistence, bond, bonds, sovereign bond, bondholders, Sovereign Debt. Default,

We show that cross-country differences in the underlying volatility and persistence of macroeconomic shocks help explain two historical regularities in sovereign borrowing: the existence of "vicious" circles of bor...

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2003/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Axel Schimmelpfennig , Nouriel Roubini , and Paolo Manasse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451875256.001

ISBN: 9781451875256

Keywords: Early-warning system, sovereign debt crises, sovereign default, debt crisis, external debt, debt crises, short-term debt, currency crisis, General Outlook and Conditions, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF finan...

Rating the Rating Agencies
			: Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises?

Rating the Rating Agencies : Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises? »

Volume/Issue: 2003/122

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Amadou Sy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451854510.001

ISBN: 9781451854510

Keywords: Crisis, distress, early-warning systems, probability of default, ratings, currency crises, currency crisis, debt crises, bond, sovereign default

In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipa...

Re-Accessing International Capital Markets After Financial Crises
			: Some Empirical Evidence

Re-Accessing International Capital Markets After Financial Crises : Some Empirical Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2007/136

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luisa Zanforlin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451867008.001

ISBN: 9781451867008

Keywords: Re-access, capital markets, debt service, international capital, global liquidity, International Lending and Debt Problems, Economic Development: General,

The paper analyzes the factors that contribute to the re-access of countries that emerge from a severe financial crisis to the international capital markets. It conjectures that these factors depend on a sovereign'...