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Public Debt Dynamics
			: The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks

Public Debt Dynamics : The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks »

Volume/Issue: 2012/230

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fuad Hasanov , and Reda Cherif

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475510553.001

ISBN: 9781475510553

Keywords: VAR, impulse responses, debt ratio, debt dynamics, primary deficit, National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models,

We study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet,...

Public Debt Dynamics

Public Debt Dynamics »

Source: Public Debt Dynamics : The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks

Volume/Issue: 2012/230

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fuad Hasanov , and Reda Cherif

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2012

ISBN: 9781475510553

Keywords: VAR, impulse responses, debt ratio, debt dynamics, primary deficit, National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models,

We study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet,...

Managing Public Debt and Its Financial Stability Implications

Managing Public Debt and Its Financial Stability Implications »

Volume/Issue: 2010/280

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Udaibir Das , Jay Surti , Faisal Ahmed , Michael Papaioannou , and Guilherme Pedras

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455210879.001

ISBN: 9781455210879

Keywords: Public Debt Structure, debt management, public debt, debt managers, bonds, Macroeconomic Aspects Of International Trade And Finance,

This paper explores the relationship between the level and management of public debt and financial stability, and explains the channels through which the two are interlinked. It suggests that the broader implicatio...

Managing Public Debt and Its Financial Stability Implications

Managing Public Debt and Its Financial Stability Implications »

Source: Managing Public Debt and Its Financial Stability Implications

Volume/Issue: 2010/280

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Udaibir Das , Jay Surti , Faisal Ahmed , Michael Papaioannou , and Guilherme Pedras

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2010

ISBN: 9781455210879

Keywords: Public Debt Structure, debt management, public debt, debt managers, bonds, Macroeconomic Aspects Of International Trade And Finance,

This paper explores the relationship between the level and management of public debt and financial stability, and explains the channels through which the two are interlinked. It suggests that the broader implicatio...

Sudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance

Sudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance »

Volume/Issue: 2008/144

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jun Kim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870022.001

ISBN: 9781451870022

Keywords: sudden stop, country insurance, optimal reserves, global game, probability, short-term debt, calibration, current account, reserve accumulation,

This paper presents a simple model of optimal reserves that can be easily calibrated to compute optimal reserves as well as the implied probability of a sudden stop for given reserves. The model builds upon the glo...

Sudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance

Sudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance »

Source: Sudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance

Volume/Issue: 2008/144

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jun Kim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2008

ISBN: 9781451870022

Keywords: sudden stop, country insurance, optimal reserves, global game, probability, short-term debt, calibration, current account, reserve accumulation,

This paper presents a simple model of optimal reserves that can be easily calibrated to compute optimal reserves as well as the implied probability of a sudden stop for given reserves. The model builds upon the glo...

Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt
			: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey

Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt : A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey »

Volume/Issue: 2006/295

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Evan Tanner , and Issouf Samaké

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451865554.001

ISBN: 9781451865554

Keywords: Tax smoothing, Sustainability, Historical Decomposition, Primary Surplus, debt ratio, fiscal sustainability, fiscal gap,

This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fi...

Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt

Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt »

Source: Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt : A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey

Volume/Issue: 2006/295

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Evan Tanner , and Issouf Samaké

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2006

ISBN: 9781451865554

Keywords: Tax smoothing, Sustainability, Historical Decomposition, Primary Surplus, debt ratio, fiscal sustainability, fiscal gap,

This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fi...

The Role of IMF Support in Crisis Prevention

The Role of IMF Support in Crisis Prevention »

Volume/Issue: 2006/75

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Uma Ramakrishnan , and Juan Zalduendo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451863352.001

ISBN: 9781451863352

Keywords: IMF financing, capital account crisis, cluster analysis, exchange rate, private capital flows, private capital, capital outflows, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, International Lending and Debt Problems, Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: General

This paper examines the role of IMF-supported programs in crisis prevention; specifically, whether, conditional on an episode of intense market pressures, IMF financial support helps prevent a capital account crisi...

Toward a Lender of First Resort

Toward a Lender of First Resort »

Volume/Issue: 2006/66

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Cohen , and Richard Portes

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451863260.001

ISBN: 9781451863260

Keywords: market discipline, country spreads, financial crises, debt crises, debt crisis, debt dynamics, debt restructuring, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, International Lending and Debt Problems,

If interest rates (country spreads) rise, debt can rapidly be subject to a snowball effect, which becomes self-fulfilling with regard to the fundamentals themselves. This is a market imperfection, because we cannot...