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Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises1

Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises1 »

Source: Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises

Volume/Issue: 2003/106

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2003

ISBN: 9781451852912

Keywords: Credit default swaps, maximum recovery rate, default probability, bond, probability, probabilities, credit derivatives, correlation, Financial Economics: General, Credit defaults swaps,

In reduced-form pricing models, it is usual to assume a fixed recovery rate to obtain the probability of default from credit default swap prices. An alternative credit risk measure is proposed here: the maximum rec...

Are Credit Default Swaps Spreads High in Emerging Markets

Are Credit Default Swaps Spreads High in Emerging Markets »

Source: Are Credit Default Swaps Spreads High in Emerging Markets : An Alternative Methodology for Proxying Recovery Value

Volume/Issue: 2003/242

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Manmohan Singh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2003

ISBN: 9781451875836

Keywords: recovery value, credit default swaps, cheapest-to-deliver bonds, bonds, bond, probability, correlation, probability of default,

In times of distress when a country loses access to markets, there is evidence that credit default swap (CDS) spreads are a leading indicator for sovereign risk than the EMBI+ sub-index for the country. However, it...

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?

Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development? »

Source: IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 1

Volume: 52

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 April 2005

ISBN: 9781589064195

Keywords: recessions, recession, asian crisis, probability, probabilities, Capital Stock, Convergence (economics), Correlation (statistics), Decomposition Method, Economic Development. Econometric Models

This first issue of IMF Staff Papers for 2005 contains 7 papers that discuss: whether output recovered after the Asian crisis; the value of a country's trading partners to its own economic growth; whether interdepe...

Are Prices Countercyclical?

Are Prices Countercyclical? »

Source: Are Prices Countercyclical?

Volume/Issue: 1992/88

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eswar Prasad , and Bankim Chadha

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 1992

ISBN: 9781451851076

Keywords: correlations, price level, rate of inflation, correlation

This paper examines the comovement of prices with the cyclical component of output. It argues that determining the cyclical behavior of prices by applying the same stationarity-inducing transformation to the levels...

Are Prices Countercyclical? Evidence From the G-7

Are Prices Countercyclical? Evidence From the G-7 »

Source: Are Prices Countercyclical? Evidence From the G-7

Volume/Issue: 1994/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eswar Prasad , and Bankim Chadha

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 1994

ISBN: 9781451851472

Keywords: correlations, price level, inflation rate, linear trend

This paper re-examines the cyclical behavior of prices using postwar quarterly data for the G-7. We confirm recent evidence that the price level is countercyclical. However, we find strong evidence that the inflati...

Are they All in the Same Boat? the 2000-2001 Growth Slowdown and the G-7 Business Cycle Linkages

Are they All in the Same Boat? the 2000-2001 Growth Slowdown and the G-7 Business Cycle Linkages »

Source: Are they All in the Same Boat? the 2000-2001 Growth Slowdown and the G-7 Business Cycle Linkages

Volume/Issue: 2003/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomas Helbling , and Tamim Bayoumi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2003

ISBN: 9781451846577

Keywords: International Business Cycles, Dynamic Factor Models, business cycle, correlation, statistics, growth cycles, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper reviews the international business cycle among Group of Seven (G-7) countries since 1973 from two angles. An examination of business cycle synchronization among these countries using simple descriptive s...

The Art of Making Everybody Happy: How to Prevent a Secession

The Art of Making Everybody Happy: How to Prevent a Secession »

Source: IMF Staff Papers, Volume 50, No. 3

Volume: 50

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): Robert Flood

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 November 2003

ISBN: 9781589062030

Keywords: unit root, real exchange rate, confidence intervals, confidence interval, serial correlation

This paper analyzes the issue of purchasing power parity using real effective exchange rate (REER) data for 20 industrial countries in the post-Bretton Woods period. The serial correlation-robust median-unbiased es...

The Asset Allocation of Emerging Market Mutual Funds

The Asset Allocation of Emerging Market Mutual Funds »

Source: The Asset Allocation of Emerging Market Mutual Funds

Volume/Issue: 2001/111

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Piti Disyatat , and R. Gelos

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2001

ISBN: 9781451853476

Keywords: asset allocation, portfolio choice, contagion, statistic, risk aversion, optimization, correlation, covariance,

Benchmark following and portfolio rebalancing effects have often been cited when trying to explain international financial contagion phenomena. Using a dataset containing the country allocation of individual dedica...

Asymmetric Arbitrage and Default Premiums Between the U.S. and Russian Financial Markets

Asymmetric Arbitrage and Default Premiums Between the U.S. and Russian Financial Markets »

Source: IMF Staff Papers, Volume 51, No. 2

Volume: 51

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 July 2004

ISBN: 9781589063235

Keywords: privatization revenues, privatization programs, privatization transactions, privatization program, American Dollar, Autoregression, Cohort Analysis, Conditionality (finance), Correlation (statistics), Effect Of Education On Economic Development

This second issue for 2004 contains 8 new papers, including notable contributions from: Nancy Brune, Geoffrey Garrett, and Bruce Kogut on the global spread of privatization; and Mark P. Taylor and Elena T. Branson...