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Chapter 2. Here Be Spillovers: An Illustration Using GIMF Simulations

Chapter 2. Here Be Spillovers: An Illustration Using GIMF Simulations »

Source: The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa : Some Facts and Possible Explanations

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Olivier Basdevant , Andrew Jonelis , Borislava Mircheva , and Slavi Slavov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 June 2014

ISBN: 9781484363447

Keywords: Demand, External shocks, Regional integration, Southern Africa, South Africa, Spillovers, Trade integration, growth rate, gdp per capita, real gdp

This section uses the IMF’s GIMF model to illustrate more formally how the channels described in the previous section would generate significant spillovers. GIMF is suitable to anal...

Chapter 1. Here Be Spillovers: Overview of Institutional Arrangements and Stylized Facts

Chapter 1. Here Be Spillovers: Overview of Institutional Arrangements and Stylized Facts »

Source: The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa : Some Facts and Possible Explanations

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Olivier Basdevant , Andrew Jonelis , Borislava Mircheva , and Slavi Slavov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 June 2014

ISBN: 9781484363447

Keywords: Demand, External shocks, Regional integration, Southern Africa, South Africa, Spillovers, Trade integration, growth rate, gdp per capita, real gdp

Multiple linkages exist between South Africa’s economy and those of its neighbors. Starting with institutional ties, South Africa, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland form the Common Mo...

Chapter I: Introduction

Chapter I: Introduction »

Source: Restoring Sustainability in a Changing Global Environment : Options for Swaziland

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Olivier Basdevant , and Borislava Mircheva

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2013

ISBN: 9781475589412

Keywords: Banking sector, Currency pegs, Debt sustainability analysis, External shocks, Reserves, Private sector, South Africa, Spillovers, Fiscal risk, Fiscal policy

The Kingdom of Swaziland (hereinafter “Swaziland”) is a small, open economy bordering Mozambique and South Africa with a population of 1.1 million people. It is a landlocked country with an economy heavily d...

Chapter II: Swaziland’s Interconnection with the Global Economy

Chapter II: Swaziland’s Interconnection with the Global Economy »

Source: Restoring Sustainability in a Changing Global Environment : Options for Swaziland

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Olivier Basdevant , and Borislava Mircheva

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2013

ISBN: 9781475589412

Keywords: Banking sector, Currency pegs, Debt sustainability analysis, External shocks, Reserves, Private sector, South Africa, Spillovers, Fiscal risk, Fiscal policy

Swaziland is highly interconnected with South Africa and with the global economy. As the global economy faces higher risks of adverse shocks, Swaziland may be affected by spillover effects. These shocks woul...

Chapter III: Swaziland’s External Vulnerabilities: The Fiscal Origin

Chapter III: Swaziland’s External Vulnerabilities: The Fiscal Origin »

Source: Restoring Sustainability in a Changing Global Environment : Options for Swaziland

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Olivier Basdevant , and Borislava Mircheva

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2013

ISBN: 9781475589412

Keywords: Banking sector, Currency pegs, Debt sustainability analysis, External shocks, Reserves, Private sector, South Africa, Spillovers, Fiscal risk, Fiscal policy

A. Swaziland’s Fiscal Position Remains Vulnerable and Inadequate to Reduce Poverty The fiscal position has improved owing to the windfall transfer from SACU for fiscal year 2012/13 (...

Chapter IV: Risks from Financial Sector Vulnerabilities

Chapter IV: Risks from Financial Sector Vulnerabilities »

Source: Restoring Sustainability in a Changing Global Environment : Options for Swaziland

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Olivier Basdevant , and Borislava Mircheva

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2013

ISBN: 9781475589412

Keywords: Banking sector, Currency pegs, Debt sustainability analysis, External shocks, Reserves, Private sector, South Africa, Spillovers, Fiscal risk, Fiscal policy

A. Risks Stemming from Vulnerabilities in the Banking Sector All commercial banks are well capitalized and have maintained strong risk-adjusted capital adequacy ratios (CAR) over the...

Chapter V: Restoring the Future of the Swaziland Economy

Chapter V: Restoring the Future of the Swaziland Economy »

Source: Restoring Sustainability in a Changing Global Environment : Options for Swaziland

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Olivier Basdevant , and Borislava Mircheva

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2013

ISBN: 9781475589412

Keywords: Banking sector, Currency pegs, Debt sustainability analysis, External shocks, Reserves, Private sector, South Africa, Spillovers, Fiscal risk, Fiscal policy

The current economic policy stance in Swaziland is unsustainable over the medium term. On current trends, the fiscal position is likely to deteriorate further, reflecting uncontrolled spending coupled with a...

Chapter VI: Conclusions

Chapter VI: Conclusions »

Source: Restoring Sustainability in a Changing Global Environment : Options for Swaziland

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Olivier Basdevant , and Borislava Mircheva

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2013

ISBN: 9781475589412

Keywords: Banking sector, Currency pegs, Debt sustainability analysis, External shocks, Reserves, Private sector, South Africa, Spillovers, Fiscal risk, Fiscal policy

Overall, the immediate risks have shifted somewhat during the last 12 months, from a pure fiscal crisis, to more pressing vulnerabilities on Swaziland’s external position and financial sector. However, the p...

Chapter 3. Where Are They? The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers: Overview and Update of Econometric Estimates

Chapter 3. Where Are They? The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers: Overview and Update of Econometric Estimates »

Source: The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa : Some Facts and Possible Explanations

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Olivier Basdevant , Andrew Jonelis , Borislava Mircheva , and Slavi Slavov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 June 2014

ISBN: 9781484363447

Keywords: Demand, External shocks, Regional integration, Southern Africa, South Africa, Spillovers, Trade integration, growth rate, gdp per capita, real gdp

Real spillovers from economic developments in South Africa to the rest of Southern Africa and the continent have been analyzed in Canales-Kriljenko, Gwenhamo, and Thomas (2013), IMF...

Chapter 4. Whodunit and Why?

Chapter 4. Whodunit and Why? »

Source: The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa : Some Facts and Possible Explanations

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Olivier Basdevant , Andrew Jonelis , Borislava Mircheva , and Slavi Slavov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 June 2014

ISBN: 9781484363447

Keywords: Demand, External shocks, Regional integration, Southern Africa, South Africa, Spillovers, Trade integration, growth rate, gdp per capita, real gdp

There are a number of possible explanations for the econometric results summarized above. First, as already discussed, the economies of South Africa and the rest of the continent mi...