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Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy »

Source: Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Volume/Issue: 2018/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Rania Al-Mashat , Hayk Avetisyan , Jaromir Benes , Olivier Bizimana , Aram Butavyan , Robert Ford , Narek Ghazaryan , Vahagn Grigoryan , Mane Harutyunyan , Anahit Hovhannisyan , Edgar Hovhannisyan , Hayk Karapetyan , Mariam Kharaishvili , Douglas Laxton , Akaki Liqokeli , Karolina Matikyan , Gevorg Minasyan , Shalva Mkhatrishvili , Armen Nurbekyan , Andrei Orlov , Babken Pashinyan , Garik Petrosyan , Yekaterina Rezepina , Aleksandr Shirkhanyan , Tamta Sopromadze , Lusine Torosyan , Erik Vardanyan , Hou Wang , and Jiaxiong Yao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 July 2018

ISBN: 9781484366325

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, Potential output, Macroeconomic Modeling, Neutral Rate, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions...

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2018/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Rania Al-Mashat , Hayk Avetisyan , Jaromir Benes , Olivier Bizimana , Aram Butavyan , Robert Ford , Narek Ghazaryan , Vahagn Grigoryan , Mane Harutyunyan , Anahit Hovhannisyan , Edgar Hovhannisyan , Hayk Karapetyan , Mariam Kharaishvili , Douglas Laxton , Akaki Liqokeli , Karolina Matikyan , Gevorg Minasyan , Shalva Mkhatrishvili , Armen Nurbekyan , Andrei Orlov , Babken Pashinyan , Garik Petrosyan , Yekaterina Rezepina , Aleksandr Shirkhanyan , Tamta Sopromadze , Lusine Torosyan , Erik Vardanyan , Hou Wang , and Jiaxiong Yao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484366325.001

ISBN: 9781484366325

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, Potential output, Macroeconomic Modeling, Neutral Rate, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions...

Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls

Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls »

Volume/Issue: 2018/27

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mokhtar Benlamine , Ales Bulir , Meryem Farouki , Ágnes Horváth , Faical Hossaini , Hasnae El Idrissi , Zineb Iraoui , Mihály Kovács , Douglas Laxton , Anass Maaroufi , Katalin Szilágyi , Mohamed Taamouti , and David Vávra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484341810.001

ISBN: 9781484341810

Keywords: Middle East, Monetary policy, Morocco, forecasting and simulation, model construction, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Model Construction and Estimation

The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-f...

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States »

Volume/Issue: 2017/106

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Olivier Bizimana , Douglas Laxton , Kadir Tanyeri , Hou Wang , Jiaxiong Yao , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 May 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475598384.001

ISBN: 9781475598384

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, Potential output, Macroeconomic Modeling, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by La...

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy
			: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2013/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484314609.001

ISBN: 9781484314609

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Fiscal policy analysis, Spillover analysis, domestic demand, terms of trade, current account balance, output growth, world economy, Bayesian Analysis, Models with Panel Data

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model encompasses an approximate linear panel dynami...

Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic

Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic »

Volume/Issue: 2016/250

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Fan Zhang , and Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 December 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475563153.001

ISBN: 9781475563153

Keywords: Potential output, Parameter estimation, Central America, Cross country analysis, Dominican Republic, Economic growth, Productivity, Econometric models, Western Hemisphere, macroeconomic modeling

This paper presents estimates of potential output for all Central American economies. Our findings are that potential output growth has declined in recent years in most economies of Central America. Lower capital a...

Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls

Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls »

Source: Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls

Volume/Issue: 2018/27

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mokhtar Benlamine , Ales Bulir , Meryem Farouki , Ágnes Horváth , Faical Hossaini , Hasnae El Idrissi , Zineb Iraoui , Mihály Kovács , Douglas Laxton , Anass Maaroufi , Katalin Szilágyi , Mohamed Taamouti , and David Vávra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2018

ISBN: 9781484341810

Keywords: Middle East, Monetary policy, Morocco, forecasting and simulation, model construction, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Model Construction and Estimation

The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-f...

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States »

Source: Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States

Volume/Issue: 2017/106

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Olivier Bizimana , Douglas Laxton , Kadir Tanyeri , Hou Wang , Jiaxiong Yao , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 May 2017

ISBN: 9781475598384

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, Potential output, Macroeconomic Modeling, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by La...

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach »

Source: Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Volume/Issue: 2013/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 December 2013

ISBN: 9781484314609

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Fiscal policy analysis, Spillover analysis, domestic demand, terms of trade, current account balance, output growth, world economy, Bayesian Analysis, Models with Panel Data

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model encompasses an approximate linear panel dynami...

Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic1

Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic1 »

Source: Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic

Volume/Issue: 2016/250

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Fan Zhang , and Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 December 2016

ISBN: 9781475563153

Keywords: Potential output, Parameter estimation, Central America, Cross country analysis, Dominican Republic, Economic growth, Productivity, Econometric models, Western Hemisphere, macroeconomic modeling

This paper presents estimates of potential output for all Central American economies. Our findings are that potential output growth has declined in recent years in most economies of Central America. Lower capital a...