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How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?

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How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? »

Source: How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?

Volume/Issue: 2019/200

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alvar Kangur , Koralai Kirabaeva , Jean-Marc Natal , and Simon Voigts

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2019

ISBN: 9781513512549

Keywords: Real interest rates, Economic theory, Potential output, Structural fiscal balance, Capacity utilization, Business Cycles, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, WP, output gap

We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw ec...

US vs. Euro Area: Who Drives Cross-Border Bank Lending to EMs?

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US vs. Euro Area: Who Drives Cross-Border Bank Lending to EMs? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/199

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eugenio Cerutti , and Carolina Osorio Buitron

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511900.001

ISBN: 9781513511900

Keywords: Central banking and monetary issues, Financial crises, Real sector, Reserve requirements, Market interest rates, cross-border bank lending, emerging markets, global banks, WP, sign restriction

This paper analyzes the drivers of cross-border bank lending to 49 Emerging Markets (EMs) during the period 1990Q1-2014Q4, by assessing the impact of monetary, financial and real sector shocks in both the US and th...

How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?

New
How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/200

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alvar Kangur , Koralai Kirabaeva , Jean-Marc Natal , and Simon Voigts

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513512549.001

ISBN: 9781513512549

Keywords: Real interest rates, Economic theory, Potential output, Structural fiscal balance, Capacity utilization, Business Cycles, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, WP, output gap

We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw ec...

US vs. Euro Area: Who Drives Cross-Border Bank Lending to EMs?

New
US vs. Euro Area: Who Drives Cross-Border Bank Lending to EMs? »

Source: US vs. Euro Area: Who Drives Cross-Border Bank Lending to EMs?

Volume/Issue: 2019/199

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eugenio Cerutti , and Carolina Osorio Buitron

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2019

ISBN: 9781513511900

Keywords: Central banking and monetary issues, Financial crises, Real sector, Reserve requirements, Market interest rates, cross-border bank lending, emerging markets, global banks, WP, sign restriction

This paper analyzes the drivers of cross-border bank lending to 49 Emerging Markets (EMs) during the period 1990Q1-2014Q4, by assessing the impact of monetary, financial and real sector shocks in both the US and th...

European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers

European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers »

Source: European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers

Volume/Issue: 2019/156

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yuanyan Sophia Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2019

ISBN: 9781498319294

Keywords: Labor market reforms, Labor markets, Real wages, Labor costs, Labor productivity, wages, spillovers, Phillips curve, non-employment, European Union

Wage rises have remained stubbornly low in advanced Europe in recent years, but, at the same time, newer EU members are experiencing rapid wage acceleration. This paper investigates the drivers of this wage diverge...

European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers

European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers »

Volume/Issue: 2019/156

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yuanyan Sophia Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498319294.001

ISBN: 9781498319294

Keywords: Labor market reforms, Labor markets, Real wages, Labor costs, Labor productivity, wages, spillovers, Phillips curve, non-employment, European Union

Wage rises have remained stubbornly low in advanced Europe in recent years, but, at the same time, newer EU members are experiencing rapid wage acceleration. This paper investigates the drivers of this wage diverge...

The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound*

The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound* »

Source: The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound

Volume/Issue: 2019/133

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adalgiso Amendola , Mario di Serio , Matteo Fragetta , and Giovanni Melina

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 June 2019

ISBN: 9781498314947

Keywords: Government expenditures, Negative interest rates, Real interest rates, Interest rate policy, Business cycles, Fiscal multiplier, Zero lower bound, Panel VAR, Factor models, Euro Area.

We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the...

The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound

The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound »

Volume/Issue: 2019/133

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adalgiso Amendola , Mario di Serio , Matteo Fragetta , and Giovanni Melina

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 June 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498314947.001

ISBN: 9781498314947

Keywords: Government expenditures, Negative interest rates, Real interest rates, Interest rate policy, Business cycles, Fiscal multiplier, Zero lower bound, Panel VAR, Factor models, Euro Area.

We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the...

Market Regulation, Cycles and Growth in a Monetary Union

Market Regulation, Cycles and Growth in a Monetary Union »

Volume/Issue: 2019/123

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mirko Abbritti , and Sebastian Weber

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 June 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498311489.001

ISBN: 9781498311489

Keywords: Price indexes, Business cycles, Unemployment, Total factor productivity, Employment, Currency union, endogenous growth, labor and product market regulation, TFP, euro area

We build a two-country currency union DSGE model with endogenous growth to assess the role of cross-country differences in product and labor market regulations for long-term growth and for the adjustment to shocks....

Market Regulation, Cycles and Growth in a Monetary Union

Market Regulation, Cycles and Growth in a Monetary Union »

Source: Market Regulation, Cycles and Growth in a Monetary Union

Volume/Issue: 2019/123

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mirko Abbritti , and Sebastian Weber

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 June 2019

ISBN: 9781498311489

Keywords: Price indexes, Business cycles, Unemployment, Total factor productivity, Employment, Currency union, endogenous growth, labor and product market regulation, TFP, euro area

We build a two-country currency union DSGE model with endogenous growth to assess the role of cross-country differences in product and labor market regulations for long-term growth and for the adjustment to shocks....