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Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model1

Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model1 »

Source: Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model

Volume/Issue: 2009/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Douglas Laxton , Michal Andrle , Haris Munandar , Charles Freedman , and Danny Hermawan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2009

ISBN: 9781451941715

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, rate of inflation, real interest rate, Model Construction and Estimation,

This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which ec...

Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model1

Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model1 »

Source: Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model

Volume/Issue: 2009/85

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2009

ISBN: 9781451872323

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, equation, forecasting, real interest rate,

This is the fourth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which e...

An Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran

An Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran »

Source: An Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran

Volume/Issue: 2002/205

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mangal Goswami , and Oya Celasun

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2002

ISBN: 9781451874563

Keywords: Exchange Rate, money market, money supply, inflation rate, Model Construction and Estimation,

This study examines money demand and inflation dynamics in the Islamic Republic of Iran using quarterly data for the period 1990/91-2001/02 and tests whether the disinflation during 2000/01-2001/02 represents a str...

Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending

Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending »

Source: Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending : Does the Level of Real Interest Rates Matter?

Volume/Issue: 2005/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Woon Choi , and Michael Devereux

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2005

ISBN: 9781451860269

Keywords: Ricardian equivalence, regime switching, threshold vector autoregression, inflation, real rates, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Model Construction and Estimation,

This paper empirically explores how fiscal policy (represented by increases in government spending) has asymmetric effects on economic activity at different levels of real interest rates. It suggests that the effec...

Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model

Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model »

Source: Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model

Volume/Issue: 2011/219

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maxym Kryshko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

ISBN: 9781463904210

Keywords: Regular and data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, real output, money demand, money balances, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Prices

When estimating DSGE models, the number of observable economic variables is usually kept small, and it is conveniently assumed that DSGE model variables are perfectly measured by a single data series. Building upon...

A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa

A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa »

Source: A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa

Volume/Issue: 2008/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomas Harjes , and Luca Ricci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2008

ISBN: 9781451869101

Keywords: monetary model, Bayesian estimation, monetary policy, real interest rate, monetary transmission,

This paper estimates a small dynamic macroeconomic model for the South African economy with Bayesian methods. The model is tailored to assessing the impact of domestic as well as external shocks on inflation within...

Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?

Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved? »

Source: Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?

Volume/Issue: 2004/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Juan Zalduendo , and Catia Batista

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2004

ISBN: 9781451874488

Keywords: Model estimation, forecasting, growth, inflation, statistic, terms of trade, inflation rates, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General

Numerous reports have noted that the IMF's medium-term growth projections are overly optimistic, raising questions as to how these can be improved. To this end, we estimate a growth model and examine its out-of-sam...

Data Dissemination Standards and the Statistical Quality of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Forecasts1

Data Dissemination Standards and the Statistical Quality of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Forecasts1 »

Source: Data Dissemination Standards and the Statistical Quality of the IMF's World Economic Outlook Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2010/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mico Mrkaic

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2010

ISBN: 9781455205349

Keywords: Data quality, data dissemination standards, WEO, inflation, statistics, variance analysis, probability, correlation, Estimation, Methodology for Collecting

This paper analyzes the effects of IMF member countries participation in the IMF's Data Standards Initiatives (DSI) on the statistical quality of WEO forecasts. Results show that WEO forecasts for SDDS subscribers...

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models »

Source: Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Volume/Issue: 2011/216

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maxym Kryshko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

ISBN: 9781463903497

Keywords: Data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, monetary policy, real output, monetary base, monetary economics, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models

Dynamic factor models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels o...

An Estimated DSGE Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries

An Estimated DSGE Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries »

Source: An Estimated DSGE Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries

Volume/Issue: 2007/282

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shanaka Peiris , and Magnus Saxegaard

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2007

ISBN: 9781451868456

Keywords: DSGE, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, monetary policy rules, monetary fund,

This paper evaluates monetary policy-tradeoffs in low-income countries using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model estimated on data for Mozambique taking into account the sources of major exogenous...